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CNX Resources Corporation (CNX) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Wait for pullback to $34.43. BUY gates pass at $36.90, but concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin and concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (92.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $34.43 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

CNX Resources is an independent natural gas E&P company centered in the Appalachian Basin, developing Marcellus and Utica Shale in PA, WV, and OH, with 9.7 Tcfe proved reserves and 629 Bcfe 2025 production (92% natural gas, 94% shale). Revenue comes from gas and NGL sales... Read more

$36.90+8.4% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#6 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.73%
Entry $34.43(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $32.47Target $38.95(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$39.00+5.7%11 analysts
$38.95our TP
$36.90price
$39.00mean
$34
$48

Wait for pullback to $34.43. BUY gates pass at $36.90, but concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin and concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (92.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $34.43 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-8.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — CNX Resources Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin
Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (92.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.0
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA3.6
Profit Mgn52.7%
ROE28.1%
Rev Growth28.2%
Beta0.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicAppalachian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our producing properties are geographically concentrated in the Appalachian Basin, which exacerbates the impact of regional supply and demand factors on our business'
  • HIGHCommoditynatural gas92%
    10-K Item 1: '92% Natural Gas, 8% Liquids'
  • MEDIUMhedge_coverage2026 natural gas production hedged at $2.74/Mcf
    10-K Item 1A: 'CNX expects these transactions will represent approximately 448.8 Bcf of our estimated 2026 production at an average price of $2.74 per Mcf'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.10Resistance $39.74

Price Targets

$32
$34
$39
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R-1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $34.43. BUY gates pass at $36.90, but concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin and concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (92.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $34.43 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-8.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $38.95 (+5.6%), stop $32.47 (−13.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

What is the CNX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.95 (+8.4% upside). Target $38.95 (+5.6%), stop $32.47 (−13.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $32.47.

What are the risks of investing in CNX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (92.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CNX overvalued or undervalued?

CNX Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CNX?

20 analysts cover CNX with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $39.

What does CNX Resources Corporation do?CNX Resources is an independent natural gas E&P company centered in the Appalachian Basin, developing Marcellus and...

CNX Resources is an independent natural gas E&P company centered in the Appalachian Basin, developing Marcellus and Utica Shale in PA, WV, and OH, with 9.7 Tcfe proved reserves and 629 Bcfe 2025 production (92% natural gas, 94% shale). Revenue comes from gas and NGL sales supplemented by a substantial hedge book; CNX owns its own gathering infrastructure.

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