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Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. At $32.49, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.1%.

Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company's properties include the Permian Basin, which covers approximately 345,000 net acres in... Read more

$32.49+4.1% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#14 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.05%
IncomeYield0.03%(5y avg 4.57%)Payout40.55%sustainable
Stop $30.28Target $33.88(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$37.65+15.9%20 analysts
$33.88our TP
$32.49price
$37.65mean
$28
$46

Sell if holding. At $32.49, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.1%. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Coterra Energy Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 7, 2026 HIGH Item 5.01: Change of control completed May 7, 2026: Coterra Energy merged with Devon Energy's Merger Sub, with Coterra surviving as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Devon. Each eligible Coterra share converted to 0.70 shares of Devon common stock.
  • May 7, 2026 MEDIUM Item 1.02: Coterra terminated all outstanding lender commitments under its JPMorgan Credit Agreement on May 7, 2026 in connection with the closing of the Devon merger. All outstanding amounts repaid at closing.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.1%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.0
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$24.7B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn22.7%
ROE11.4%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.30
Dividend0.03%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C1.99bearish
IV75%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.01HIGH
    Change of control completed May 7, 2026: Coterra Energy merged with Devon Energy's Merger Sub, with Coterra surviving as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Devon. Each eligible Coterra share converted to 0.70 shares of Devon common stock.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-07Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Coterra terminated all outstanding lender commitments under its JPMorgan Credit Agreement on May 7, 2026 in connection with the closing of the Devon merger. All outstanding amounts repaid at closing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
5.3
Growth Rank
5.7
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.34Resistance $36.31

Price Targets

$30
$34
A.Upside+4.3%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTRA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $32.49, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.1%. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $30.28. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTRA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.88 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $30.28. Stop-loss: $30.28.

What are the risks of investing in CTRA?

Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is CTRA overvalued or undervalued?

Coterra Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CTRA?

29 analysts cover CTRA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Coterra Energy Inc. do?Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of...

Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company's properties include the Permian Basin, which covers approximately 345,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, and an additional approximate of 49,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin in Lea County, New Mexico; Marcellus Shale properties, which covers approximately 186,000 net acres located in Susquehanna County, northeast Pennsylvania; and Anadarko Basin, which covers approximately 208,000 net acres located in the mid-continent region in Oklahoma. It also operates natural gas and saltwater gathering, and disposal systems in Texas. The company sells its natural gas to industrial customers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, energy companies, pipeline companies, and power generation facilities. The company was formerly known as Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation and changed its name to Coterra Energy Inc. in October 2021. Coterra Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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