Constellium offers an inexpensive entry — forward P/E of 11.9x, PEG of 0.03, and 24% revenue growth — supported by three consecutive earnings beats, but negative free cash flow, top-10 customer concentration at 56% of revenues, and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.63 collectively leave the setup unattractive for new capital at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Three Consecutive Earnings Beats→Stable
- Attractive Forward Valuation→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Constellium SE (CSTM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Wait for pullback to $27.97. BUY gates pass at $29.06, but concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.0%) and leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $27.97 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
Constellium SE develops and manufactures specialty aluminum rolled and extruded products across three segments — Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry — from 24 manufacturing facilities at December 31, 2025.... Read more
Wait for pullback to $27.97. BUY gates pass at $29.06, but concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.0%) and leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $27.97 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Constellium SE
About Constellium SE
Constellium SE's top 10 customers represented approximately 56% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, concentrated across aerospace, beverage packaging, and automotive OEM end-markets served from 24 manufacturing facilities and 3 R&D centers. The company invested $51 million in R&D in 2025, holding more than 270 active patent families, with operations spanning the United States, France, Germany, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, China, Spain, Canada, and Mexico.
Constellium earns conversion margins — the spread between aluminum input cost and realized selling price — rather than carrying raw metal price risk; the company employs back-to-back physical arrangements and derivative financial instruments to achieve aluminum price neutrality. The Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment supplies canstock and closure stock to beverage companies and can makers in North America and Europe, where canstock demand is projected by CRU to grow at 2.8% and 3.5% per annum between 2025 and 2030. The Aerospace & Transportation segment provides plates, sheets, and extrusions — including the proprietary Airware aluminum-lithium alloy — predominantly under multi-year contracts to commercial and military aerospace customers who require lengthy NADCAP qualification. Natural gas and electricity represent one of the largest cost components after metal, labor, and depreciation; the company secures a large portion of energy needs under fixed-price forward contracts, though prolonged price volatility could weigh on margins where pass-through mechanisms are incomplete.
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The 10-K's disclosure that the top 10 customers represent approximately 56% of revenue — above the HIGH threshold — is compounded by Constellium's dedicated-facility model: the company operates plants specifically configured for certain customers, concentrating revenue-loss exposure at individual sites if those customers reduce volume. The filing names the risk that customers in packaging, automotive, and aerospace could consolidate further, potentially exerting greater pricing pressure on suppliers. Multi-year aerospace contracts provide visibility on volumes and profitability, but the same agreements carry customer termination rights.
See also: Basic Materials · Aluminum
From Constellium SE's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Constellium SE
Latest news
- NEWS Constellium's Expenses are on the Rise: Will It Affect Margins? - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS Constellium SE (CSTM) Dividends & Stock Splits: Historical Payouts and Event Timeline - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Constellium (NYSE:CSTM) Lowered to "Hold" Rating by Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Constellium SE to Announce First Quarter 2026 Results During Conference Call on April 29 - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Constellium’s Hot Streak Cools: Why the Stock Is Sinking - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-10 customers56%10-K Item 1: 'our 10 largest customers representing approximately 56% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMSuppliertop-10 metal suppliers10-K Item 1: 'the top 10 suppliers accounted for approximately 49% of our total metal purchases (in terms of volumes) for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $27.97. BUY gates pass at $29.06, but concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.0%) and leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $27.97 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $32.22 (+10.9%), stop $26.38 (−10.2%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.22 (+10.9% upside). Target $32.22 (+10.9%), stop $26.38 (−10.2%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $26.38.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.
Constellium SE trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts cover CSTM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $37.
What does Constellium SE do?Constellium SE develops and manufactures specialty aluminum rolled and extruded products across three segments —...
Constellium SE develops and manufactures specialty aluminum rolled and extruded products across three segments — Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry — from 24 manufacturing facilities at December 31, 2025. Revenue is earned through conversion margins on technically advanced products sold under multi-year contracts to aerospace, beverage packaging, and automotive OEM customers globally.