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CPACCementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.Buy Wait6.8·$11.95+0.34%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Cementos Pacasmayo shows a strong growth profile and a technical breakout, but the engine flags a cyclical earnings trap with a roughly 75% expected earnings decline, an already-reached analyst target with negative risk-reward, a failed momentum gate, and an unsafe dividend yield, keeping conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.

Thesis pillars

  • Cyclical Earnings Peak TrapDeteriorating
  • Strong Growth ProfileImproving
  • Target Reached Negative AsymmetryDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. (CPAC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Wait for pullback to $11.20. BUY gates pass at $11.95, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $11.20 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. produces, distributes, and sells cement and cement-related materials in Peru. It operates in three segments: Cement, Concrete, Mortar, Pavement and Precast; Quicklime; and Sales of Construction Supplies. The company offers cement and concrete products... Read more

$11.95-9.0% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 14 Building Materials
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield43.41%
IncomeYield5.12%Payout83.34%at-risk
Entry $11.20(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $10.60Target $12.10(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$12.79+7.1%3 analysts
$12.10our TP
$11.95price
$12.79mean
$13

Wait for pullback to $11.20. BUY gates pass at $11.95, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $11.20 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202696d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.5
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA3.4
Profit Mgn9.5%
ROE16.0%
Rev Growth15.4%
Beta
Dividend5.12%
Rating analysts3

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.8
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.35Resistance $12.35

Price Targets

$11
$11
$12
A.Upside-9.0%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.4%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CPAC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $11.20. BUY gates pass at $11.95, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $11.20 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $12.10 (+1.3%), stop $10.60 (−12.7%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CPAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.10 (-9.0% upside). Target $12.10 (+1.3%), stop $10.60 (−12.7%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $10.60.

What are the risks of investing in CPAC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.

Is CPAC overvalued or undervalued?

Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

0
What does Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. do?Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. produces, distributes, and sells cement and cement-related materials in Peru. It operates in...

Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. produces, distributes, and sells cement and cement-related materials in Peru. It operates in three segments: Cement, Concrete, Mortar, Pavement and Precast; Quicklime; and Sales of Construction Supplies. The company offers cement and concrete products for use in residential and commercial construction, and civil engineering; ready-mix concrete for use in construction sites; concrete precast, such as paving units or paver stones for pedestrian walkways, as well as other bricks for partition walls and concrete precast for structural and non-structural uses; and cement-based products. It also produces and distributes quicklime for use in steel, food, fishing, and chemical industries. In addition, the company sells and distributes other construction materials manufactured by third parties, such as steel rebar, wires, nails, corrugated iron, electric conductors, and plastic tubes and accessories. It offers its products directly to other retailers, private construction companies, and through a network of independent retailers and hardware stores. Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Lima, Peru. Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. is a subsidiary of Inversiones ASPI S.A.

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