Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
- ▸Attractively valued
CPAC · Why this verdict
Why Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. (CPAC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cementos Pacasmayo shows a strong growth profile and a technical breakout, but the engine flags a cyclical earnings trap with a roughly 75% expected earnings decline, an already-reached analyst target with negative risk-reward, a failed momentum gate, and an unsafe dividend yield, keeping conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bear case flags earnings expected to decline roughly 75% off a cyclical peak, and the engine separately warns of a cyclical trap where the forward P/E of 77.4x sits far above the trailing 19x multiple, implying today's trailing earnings are not sustainable. Warnings | If this risk holds, expect trailing earnings to fall materially and the forward P/E to stay elevated relative to trailing over the next few reported quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe quality notes show excellent cash conversion (130% FCF/NI) and a strong Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9, so the underlying balance sheet may be resilient enough to weather a cyclical earnings downturn without much value destruction. | ||
The bull case cites a strong growth profile, and growth scores 7.7 overall with the earnings-growth component maxed at 10.0. Bull case | The growth score should hold above 7 if the growth profile persists over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThis 'strong growth' reading directly conflicts with the separately flagged expectation of a roughly 75% earnings decline off a cyclical peak, suggesting the growth score may be capturing trailing momentum right before a downturn rather than a sustainable trajectory. | ||
The engine's risk-reward gate failed with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.03, since the analyst target has already been reached, leaving the take-profit set by a nearby resistance level with modeled downside (14.4%) exceeding upside. Bear case | If this holds, expect the stock to trade capped near its resistance-based target without a new, higher analyst target being set over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong cash generation and a solid quality profile could support a re-rating that establishes new resistance and analyst targets above current levels. | ||
The technical setup shows a golden-cross breakout with RSI at 67 and a bullish MACD, yet momentum failed the engine's gate at 4.4 versus a 4.5 threshold. Engine gate (failed) | For the breakout to be confirmed, momentum needs to climb just above the 4.5 threshold over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe momentum notes also flag falling on-balance volume, meaning the breakout may lack the volume confirmation needed to clear the threshold. | ||
The catalyst notes flag a yield-trap warning, describing the dividend as high-yield but unsafe, adding a distinct income-sustainability risk on top of the cyclical earnings concern. Catalyst breakdown | If this risk holds, expect the dividend to be cut or the safety flag to persist over the next several quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe dividend-safety component itself scores a moderate 4.2, not the lowest possible reading, suggesting the risk, while real, may not be imminent. | ||
The bear case flags earnings expected to decline roughly 75% off a cyclical peak, and the engine separately warns of a cyclical trap where the forward P/E of 77.4x sits far above the trailing 19x multiple, implying today's trailing earnings are not sustainable.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- If this risk holds, expect trailing earnings to fall materially and the forward P/E to stay elevated relative to trailing over the next few reported quarters.
CounterThe quality notes show excellent cash conversion (130% FCF/NI) and a strong Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9, so the underlying balance sheet may be resilient enough to weather a cyclical earnings downturn without much value destruction.
The bull case cites a strong growth profile, and growth scores 7.7 overall with the earnings-growth component maxed at 10.0.
↑ImprovingBull case
- Expectation
- The growth score should hold above 7 if the growth profile persists over the next 12 months.
CounterThis 'strong growth' reading directly conflicts with the separately flagged expectation of a roughly 75% earnings decline off a cyclical peak, suggesting the growth score may be capturing trailing momentum right before a downturn rather than a sustainable trajectory.
The engine's risk-reward gate failed with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.03, since the analyst target has already been reached, leaving the take-profit set by a nearby resistance level with modeled downside (14.4%) exceeding upside.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- If this holds, expect the stock to trade capped near its resistance-based target without a new, higher analyst target being set over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong cash generation and a solid quality profile could support a re-rating that establishes new resistance and analyst targets above current levels.
The technical setup shows a golden-cross breakout with RSI at 67 and a bullish MACD, yet momentum failed the engine's gate at 4.4 versus a 4.5 threshold.
↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- For the breakout to be confirmed, momentum needs to climb just above the 4.5 threshold over the next 12 months.
CounterThe momentum notes also flag falling on-balance volume, meaning the breakout may lack the volume confirmation needed to clear the threshold.
The catalyst notes flag a yield-trap warning, describing the dividend as high-yield but unsafe, adding a distinct income-sustainability risk on top of the cyclical earnings concern.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- If this risk holds, expect the dividend to be cut or the safety flag to persist over the next several quarters.
CounterThe dividend-safety component itself scores a moderate 4.2, not the lowest possible reading, suggesting the risk, while real, may not be imminent.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 208% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:96d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.79
Upside
-9.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.2; weakest: Catalyst at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Value at 8.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.6, Technical at 5.3, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.79 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cyclical Earnings Peak Trap
Trip ifTrailing earnings decline by less than 20%, well short of the expected 75% cyclical drop.
- P2Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifGrowth score falls below 4.0 from the current 7.7 as the cyclical earnings decline takes hold.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0, clearing into positive territory from the current -1.03 reading.
- P4Failed Momentum Gate In Breakout
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the engine's gate from the current 4.4 reading.
- P5Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend-safety score rises above 7.0 from the current 4.2, or the payout is maintained without a cut for 4 consecutive quarters.