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USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Sell5.6·$104.88
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

United States Lime and Minerals is a high-quality building materials company with 35% net margins, a top-ranked return on equity versus peers, and a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9 — but 3 consecutive earnings misses and a news modifier pulling the outlook negative reduce the near-term setup quality.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Growth Ratio↑Improving
  • Best In Class Margins→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Streak↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

United States Lime & Minerals, (USLM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. At $104.88, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. (the "Company," the "Registrant," "We" or "Our"), which was incorporated in 1950, conducts lime and limestone operations.

$104.88+7.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 14 Building Materials
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.57%
IncomeYield0.23%(5y avg 0.28%)Payout5.14%sustainable
Stop $100.30Target $112.20(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$132.00+25.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. At $104.88, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15

Recent Developments — United States Lime & Minerals,

Generated 2026-10-15T11:42:23Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Positive insider activity
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.0%
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.5
P/E (Fwd)18.4
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA14.1
Profit Mgn35.7%
ROE21.4%
Rev Growth8.3%
Beta0.65
Dividend0.23%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.07bearish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.9
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.9
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 13 days
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $103.40Resistance $117.61

Price Targets

$100
$112
A.Upside+7.0%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USLM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $104.88, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $100.30. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the USLM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $112.20 (+7.0% upside). Prior stop was $100.30. Stop-loss: $100.30.

What are the risks of investing in USLM?

Thin upside margin: 7.0%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is USLM overvalued or undervalued?

United States Lime & Minerals, trades at a P/E of 22.5 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about USLM?

7 analysts cover USLM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $132.

What does United States Lime & Minerals, do?United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. (the "Company," the "Registrant," "We" or "Our"), which was incorporated in 1950,...

United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. (the "Company," the "Registrant," "We" or "Our"), which was incorporated in 1950, conducts lime and limestone operations.

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