A high-quality franchise—with free cash flow running at over four times reported net income, a near-perfect financial strength score, and a forward multiple well below the sector—is priced at a significant discount to analyst estimates, with 38% upside to the consensus target and a 5.5-to-1 favorable risk/reward; however, elevated leverage, a mixed two-beat/two-miss earnings cadence, and 21% short interest create near-term headwinds that keep the setup from being actionable without a cleaner technical entry.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Deep Value Wide Analyst Gap→Stable
- High Short Interest Squeeze Setup↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: API sole or limited-source suppliers; Concentration risk — Supplier: Patheon (contract manufacturer for Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER).
Collegium Pharmaceutical is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company selling FDA-approved treatments for ADHD and moderate-to-severe pain in the United States, including Jornay PM, Belbuca, Xtampza ER, the Nucynta Products, and Symproic. In May 2026 the company closed its... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: API sole or limited-source suppliers; Concentration risk — Supplier: Patheon (contract manufacturer for Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
About Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
Collegium Pharmaceutical markets six FDA-approved products in the United States: the ADHD medicine Jornay PM (acquired via Ironshore in September 2024), the pain treatments Belbuca, Xtampza ER and the Nucynta Products (ER and IR), and Symproic for opioid-induced constipation. In May 2026 the company closed a roughly $650 million acquisition of AZSTARYS, another ADHD stimulant, funded with $350 million of cash on hand and a $300 million delayed-draw term loan under its December 2025 syndicated credit facility.
Collegium sells through two dedicated field forces of roughly 105 pain and 200 ADHD sales representatives, targeting the prescribers of about 67% of branded extended-release opioid prescriptions and 60% of pediatric and adolescent extended-release stimulant prescriptions in the U.S., then distributing primarily through wholesalers that supply retail pharmacies, managed care organizations and government agencies. Four of five controlled-substance products, Xtampza ER, the Nucynta Products, and Jornay PM, carry DEA Schedule II status, while Belbuca is Schedule III; Symproic is not a controlled substance. Manufacturing is fully outsourced: Patheon, a Thermo Fisher Scientific subsidiary, produces both Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER, while Coating Place, Halo Pharmaceutical, UPM Pharmaceuticals and LTS Therapy Systems each manufacture a different product in the portfolio. Collegium licenses Nucynta commercialization rights from Grünenthal and Symproic rights from Shionogi, and carries $580.0 million outstanding under a 2025 Term Loan plus $241.5 million in 2029 convertible notes.
Show full overview
Collegium's own risk factors flag concentrated dependencies on both raw material and finished-goods manufacturing: the company states it currently procures the active pharmaceutical ingredient for its products from a sole supplier or limited number of suppliers, and that production problems at any of these suppliers could have a material adverse effect. On the finished-drug side, Patheon alone manufactures both Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER, two of Collegium's largest pain products, so a disruption at that single contract manufacturer would touch a meaningfully larger share of revenue than a single-product manufacturing relationship would.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
From Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Small-Cap Stock Analysis: Tetra Tech Highlighted, Macy's and Collegium Pharmaceutical Flagged - News and Statistics - In — IndexBox negative
- NEWS Earnings Preview: Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Collegium Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:COLL) Exceeds Q1 CY2026 Expectations, Stock Soars - StockStory — StockStory positive
Generated 2026-07-27T14:48:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierAPI sole or limited-source suppliers10-K Item 1: 'We currently procure the API used in our products from a sole supplier or limited number of suppliers.'
- HIGHSupplierPatheon (contract manufacturer for Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER)10-K Item 1: 'To date, we have produced Xtampza ER through a contract manufacturing organization, Patheon, a subsidiary of Thermo Fisher Scientific, pursuant to a third-party supply agreement.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States10-K Item 1: 'We commercialize our products, consisting of Jornay PM, Belbuca, Xtampza ER, Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR (collectively the “Nucynta Products”), and Symproic, in the United States.'
- MEDIUMCustomerwholesale pharmaceutical distributors10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on wholesale pharmaceutical distributors for retail distribution of our products; if we lose any of our significant wholesale pharmaceutical distributors or their distribution network is disrupted, our financial condition and results of operations may be adversely affected.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 2.01MEDIUMCollegium completed its approximately $650 million acquisition of AZSTARYS, an ADHD stimulant, from Corium/GPC entities, funded with $350 million cash and a $300 million delayed-draw term loan; up to $135 million in additional milestone payments may follow.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-07Item 5.02LOWBoard approved Michael Donovan (former EY biotechnology audit partner) as director nominee for the 2026 annual meeting; director John Fallon announced he will retire and not stand for re-election. Routine board transition.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: API sole or limited-source suppliers; Concentration risk — Supplier: Patheon (contract manufacturer for Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $33.32. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.63 (+30.2% upside). Prior stop was $33.32. Stop-loss: $33.32.
Concentration risk — Supplier: API sole or limited-source suppliers; Concentration risk — Supplier: Patheon (contract manufacturer for Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5.
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 4.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover COLL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $54.
What does Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. do?Collegium Pharmaceutical is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company selling FDA-approved treatments for ADHD and...
Collegium Pharmaceutical is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company selling FDA-approved treatments for ADHD and moderate-to-severe pain in the United States, including Jornay PM, Belbuca, Xtampza ER, the Nucynta Products, and Symproic. In May 2026 the company closed its approximately $650 million acquisition of AZSTARYS, an ADHD stimulant, funded partly through a $300 million delayed-draw term loan; the company depends on a sole or limited number of suppliers for the active pharmaceutical ingredients in its products and sells primarily through wholesale pharmaceutical distributors.