A high-quality franchise—with free cash flow running at over four times reported net income, a near-perfect financial strength score, and a forward multiple well below the sector—is priced at a significant discount to analyst estimates, with 38% upside to the consensus target and a 5.5-to-1 favorable risk/reward; however, elevated leverage, a mixed two-beat/two-miss earnings cadence, and 21% short interest create near-term headwinds that keep the setup from being actionable without a cleaner technical entry.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Deep Value Wide Analyst Gap→Stable
- High Short Interest Squeeze Setup→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $36.59: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management. The company's portfolio includes Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant prescription medicine that contains... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $36.59: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-29Recent Developments — Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Small-Cap Stock Analysis: Tetra Tech Highlighted, Macy's and Collegium Pharmaceutical Flagged - News and Statistics - In — IndexBox negative
- NEWS Earnings Preview: Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Collegium Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:COLL) Exceeds Q1 CY2026 Expectations, Stock Soars - StockStory — StockStory positive
Generated 2026-06-30T00:04:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $36.59: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Prior stop was $34.03. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $47.27 (+29.2% upside). Prior stop was $34.03. Stop-loss: $34.03.
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-day MA.
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 4.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover COLL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $54.
What does Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. do?Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of...
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management. The company's portfolio includes Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant prescription medicine that contains methylphenidate HCl for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; Belbuca, a buccal film that contains buprenorphine for severe and persistent pain that requires an extended treatment period; Xtampza ER, an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone for the management of pain severe enough to require daily; Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR, which are extended-release and immediate-release oral formulations of tapentadol, indicated for the management of acute, severe, and persistent pain; and Symproic, an oral formulation of naldemedine for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation in adult patients with chronic non-cancer pain. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. was formerly known as Collegium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. in October 2003. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.