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Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management. The company's portfolio includes Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant prescription medicine that contains... Read more

$33.62+40.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#5 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield30.48%
Stop $31.27Target $47.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$54.33+61.6%6 analysts
$47.27our TP
$33.62price
$54.33mean
$60

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val9.3Qual7.5Grw7.3Mom1.9Sent7.2Ins3.3Peer5.0Tech5.8Risk4.96.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
High-quality business
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.3
P/E (Fwd)4.4
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA3.8
Profit Mgn9.4%
ROE27.4%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta0.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.7
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.87Resistance $40.50

Price Targets

$31
$47
A.Upside+40.6%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COLL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $31.27. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COLL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.27 (+40.6% upside). Prior stop was $31.27. Stop-loss: $31.27.

What are the risks of investing in COLL?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is COLL overvalued or undervalued?

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.3 (forward 4.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COLL?

12 analysts cover COLL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. do?Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of...

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management. The company's portfolio includes Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant prescription medicine that contains methylphenidate HCl for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; Belbuca, a buccal film that contains buprenorphine for severe and persistent pain that requires an extended treatment period; Xtampza ER, an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone for the management of pain severe enough to require daily; Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR, which are extended-release and immediate-release oral formulations of tapentadol, indicated for the management of acute, severe, and persistent pain; and Symproic, an oral formulation of naldemedine for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation in adult patients with chronic non-cancer pain. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. was formerly known as Collegium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. in October 2003. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.

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