Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the COLL stock price target?

Take-profit $47.13 (+38.6% upside). Prior stop was $31.63.

Q: Is COLL overvalued or undervalued?

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 5.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about COLL?

12 analysts cover COLL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $54.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.99: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

$33.99+38.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#5 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Stop $31.63Target $47.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.0:1

Analyst target$54.17+59.4%6 analysts

$47.13our TP

$33.99price

$54.17mean

$60

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.99: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

High-quality business

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Risks

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5

Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.5

P/E (Fwd)5.0

Mkt Cap$1.1B

EV/EBITDA3.9

Profit Mgn8.1%

ROE23.7%

Rev Growth12.9%

Beta0.77

DividendNone

Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral

IV72%elevated

Max Pain$30-11.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.215%1.38

Quality7.515%1.13

Growth7.015%1.05

Momentum5.910%0.59

Sentiment7.210%0.72

Insider Activity3.310%0.33

Peer Rank4.810%0.48

Technical Setup4.25%0.21

Risk Profile4.55%0.23

Catalyst4.25%0.21

Overall (Σ contributions)6.32

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 5.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

41 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.54Resistance $36.27

Price Targets

$32

$47

A.Upside+38.7%

A.R:R5.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is COLL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.99: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Prior stop was $31.63. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COLL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.13 (+38.6% upside). Prior stop was $31.63. Stop-loss: $31.63.

What are the risks of investing in COLL?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.1): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is COLL overvalued or undervalued?

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 5.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COLL?

12 analysts cover COLL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. do?Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of...

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management. The company's portfolio includes Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant prescription medicine that contains methylphenidate HCl for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; Belbuca, a buccal film that contains buprenorphine for severe and persistent pain that requires an extended treatment period; Xtampza ER, an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone for the management of pain severe enough to require daily; Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR, which are extended-release and immediate-release oral formulations of tapentadol, indicated for the management of acute, severe, and persistent pain; and Symproic, an oral formulation of naldemedine for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation in adult patients with chronic non-cancer pain. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. was formerly known as Collegium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. in October 2003. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.