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COLLCollegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.Sell6.4·$34.66+4.18%
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Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.66: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management. The company's portfolio includes Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant prescription medicine that contains... Read more

$34.66+36.4% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#5 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield30.82%
Stop $32.23Target $47.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$54.33+56.8%6 analysts
$47.27our TP
$34.66price
$54.33mean
$60

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.66: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
High-quality business
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.2
P/E (Fwd)4.4
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA3.7
Profit Mgn9.4%
ROE27.4%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta0.75
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV81%elevated
Max Pain$25-27.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.8
Support Resistance
2.9
52w Position
3.6
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.13Resistance $36.47

Price Targets

$32
$47
A.Upside+36.4%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts12
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$54

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COLL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.66: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $32.23. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COLL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.27 (+36.4% upside). Prior stop was $32.23. Stop-loss: $32.23.

What are the risks of investing in COLL?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Elevated risk factors.

Is COLL overvalued or undervalued?

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 4.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COLL?

12 analysts cover COLL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. do?Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of...

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management. The company's portfolio includes Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant prescription medicine that contains methylphenidate HCl for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; Belbuca, a buccal film that contains buprenorphine for severe and persistent pain that requires an extended treatment period; Xtampza ER, an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone for the management of pain severe enough to require daily; Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR, which are extended-release and immediate-release oral formulations of tapentadol, indicated for the management of acute, severe, and persistent pain; and Symproic, an oral formulation of naldemedine for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation in adult patients with chronic non-cancer pain. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. was formerly known as Collegium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. in October 2003. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.

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