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CNKCinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark Hold6.3·$33.02+0.96%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Cinemark combines an attractive valuation, a strong growth profile, and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 137% of net income, but the setup is undermined by extreme leverage of 7.7 times debt to equity, operating margins compressed to 4.2%, 17% short interest, and two consecutive in-line quarters following a miss—leaving risk/reward unfavorable despite meaningful positive news sentiment.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Leverage Compresses Margin BufferStable
  • High Short Interest Overbought SignalStable
  • Strong Growth And Cash ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark (CNK) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Earnings in 2 days (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away).

We are a leader and one of the most geographically diverse operators in the theatrical exhibition industry. As of December 31, 2025, we operated 496 theaters and 5,637 screens in the United States, or "U.S.", and Latin America. Our U.S. circuit operated 303 theaters and 4,241... Read more

$33.02-7.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 35 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.14%
IncomeYield1.10%(5y avg 4.05%)Payout26.15%sustainable
Entry $29.04(support + ATR)Stop $27.64Target $32.95(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$35.18+6.5%11 analysts
$32.95our TP
$33.02price
$35.18mean
$30
$38

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $33.14 has reached target $32.95. No upside to wait for. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 20262d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.6% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 7.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.2
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE46.6%
Rev Growth18.9%
Beta0.98
Dividend1.10%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$20-39.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.0
52w Position
9.1
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.50Resistance $33.62

Price Targets

$28
$29
$33
A.Upside-7.6%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.6% upside)
! Earnings in 2 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $33.14 has reached target $32.95. No upside to wait for. Target $32.95 (-0.2%), stop $27.64 (−19.5%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.95 (-7.6% upside). Target $32.95 (-0.2%), stop $27.64 (−19.5%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $27.64.

What are the risks of investing in CNK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 7.7): -1.5.

Is CNK overvalued or undervalued?

Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark trades at a P/E of 25.2 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CNK?

17 analysts cover CNK with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark do?We are a leader and one of the most geographically diverse operators in the theatrical exhibition industry. As of...

We are a leader and one of the most geographically diverse operators in the theatrical exhibition industry. As of December 31, 2025, we operated 496 theaters and 5,637 screens in the United States, or "U.S.", and Latin America. Our U.S. circuit operated 303 theaters and 4,241 screens and our Latin America circuit operated 193 theaters and 1,396 screens across 13 countries. Our significant and diverse presence in the U.S.

Related stocks: IMAX (Imax Corporation) · NWSA (News Corporation) · SPHR (Sphere Entertainment Co.) · ANGX (Angel Studios, Inc.) · WMG (Warner Music Group Corp.)
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