Cummins trades just below its analyst consensus target with essentially no remaining upside, has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters by an average of roughly 16%, and carries two high-severity concentration risks — a combination that makes the current setup unfavorable for new or increased positions despite technical support above the 200-day moving average.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Price At Target No Upside→Stable
- High Severity Concentration Risks↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sell if holding. At $664.00, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials.
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer... Read more
Sell if holding. At $664.00, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Cummins Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Sunrun, Builders FirstSource, DXP, ITT, and Cummins Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Cummins Inc Stock (CMI) Moved Down by 4.13% on Apr 15: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
- NEWS Winners And Losers Of Q4: Cummins (NYSE:CMI) Vs The Rest Of The Heavy Transportation Equipment Stocks - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Here's Why Cummins (CMI) is a Strong Growth Stock - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Here's why Cummins (CMI) is a strong growth stock - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-07-26T09:23:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicChina-based investees10-K Item 1A: 'more than 50 percent of these earnings from our China-based investees'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source parts and raw materials10-K Item 1A: 'We single source a number of parts and raw materials critical to our business operations'
- MEDIUMCustomerfew large on-highway truck OEM customers10-K Item 1A: 'We recognize significant sales of engines and components to a few large on-highway truck OEM customers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $664.00, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $620.71. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $679.37 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $620.71. Stop-loss: $620.71.
Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Cummins Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.6 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover CMI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $755.
What does Cummins Inc. do?Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26%...
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer outlets in approximately 190 countries. Revenue flows from OEM and aftermarket sales, with China-based joint ventures contributing nearly half of 2025 equity income from investees. A $1.9 billion EPA/CARB emission settlement was paid in 2024.