Cummins trades just below its analyst consensus target with essentially no remaining upside, has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters by an average of roughly 16%, and carries two high-severity concentration risks — a combination that makes the current setup unfavorable for new or increased positions despite technical support above the 200-day moving average.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Price At Target No Upside→Stable
- High Severity Concentration Risks→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sell if holding. At $661.70, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials.
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer... Read more
Sell if holding. At $661.70, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Cummins Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Sunrun, Builders FirstSource, DXP, ITT, and Cummins Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Cummins Inc Stock (CMI) Moved Down by 4.13% on Apr 15: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
- NEWS Winners And Losers Of Q4: Cummins (NYSE:CMI) Vs The Rest Of The Heavy Transportation Equipment Stocks - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Here's Why Cummins (CMI) is a Strong Growth Stock - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Here's why Cummins (CMI) is a strong growth stock - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicChina-based investees10-K Item 1A: 'more than 50 percent of these earnings from our China-based investees'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source parts and raw materials10-K Item 1A: 'We single source a number of parts and raw materials critical to our business operations'
- MEDIUMCustomerfew large on-highway truck OEM customers10-K Item 1A: 'We recognize significant sales of engines and components to a few large on-highway truck OEM customers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $661.70, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $615.38. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $678.00 (+2.5% upside). Prior stop was $615.38. Stop-loss: $615.38.
Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Cummins Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.4 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover CMI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $753.
What does Cummins Inc. do?Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26%...
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer outlets in approximately 190 countries. Revenue flows from OEM and aftermarket sales, with China-based joint ventures contributing nearly half of 2025 equity income from investees. A $1.9 billion EPA/CARB emission settlement was paid in 2024.