Cummins trades just below its analyst consensus target with essentially no remaining upside, has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters by an average of roughly 16%, and carries two high-severity concentration risks — a combination that makes the current setup unfavorable for new or increased positions despite technical support above the 200-day moving average.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Price At Target No Upside↑Improving
- High Severity Concentration Risks↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $557.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials.
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $557.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Cummins Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cummins Inc (CMI) Stock Down 5.5% but Still Overvalued -- GF Sco - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Cummins Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Cummins Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards? - tradingview.com — tradingview.com neutral
- NEWS Opal Capital LLC Acquires 2,477 Shares of Cummins Inc. $CMI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Empowered Funds LLC Increases Stock Holdings in Cummins Inc. $CMI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicChina-based investees10-K Item 1A: 'more than 50 percent of these earnings from our China-based investees'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source parts and raw materials10-K Item 1A: 'We single source a number of parts and raw materials critical to our business operations'
- MEDIUMCustomerfew large on-highway truck OEM customers10-K Item 1A: 'We recognize significant sales of engines and components to a few large on-highway truck OEM customers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $557.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $526.53. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $681.32 (+22.2% upside). Prior stop was $526.53. Stop-loss: $526.53.
Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Cummins Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.2 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover CMI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $757.
What does Cummins Inc. do?Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26%...
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer outlets in approximately 190 countries. Revenue flows from OEM and aftermarket sales, with China-based joint ventures contributing nearly half of 2025 equity income from investees. A $1.9 billion EPA/CARB emission settlement was paid in 2024.