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CHKPCheck Point Software TechnologiBuy Wait5.4·$133.82+2.49%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Check Point Software combines four consecutive quarters of beating analyst estimates — averaging 22% upside to consensus — with premier financial quality in 38% operating margins and a perfect Piotroski F-score, but a confirmed death-cross downtrend and failed momentum gate mean the risk/reward favors patience until price conditions improve.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation CushionImproving
  • High Quality FranchiseStable
  • Earnings Beat ConsistencyStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Check Point Software Technologi (CHKP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Earnings in 3 days (2026-07-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $127.02. At $133.82 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $127.02 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. It provides a multilevel security architecture that defends enterprises' cloud, network, mobile devices, endpoints information, and IOT solutions.... Read more

$133.82+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#76 of 109 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.48%
Entry $127.02(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $116.25Target $136.19(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$148.03+10.6%31 analysts
$136.19our TP
$133.82price
$148.03mean
$120
$201

Wait for pullback to $127.02. At $133.82 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $127.02 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$13.3B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn38.4%
ROE38.0%
Rev Growth4.8%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$90-32.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
3.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.5
Support Resistance
4.9
Bollinger
5.1
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $124.77Resistance $142.10

Price Targets

$116
$127
$136
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.9% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHKP stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $127.02. At $133.82 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $127.02 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $136.19 (+1.8%), stop $116.25 (−15.1%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHKP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.19 (+1.9% upside). Target $136.19 (+1.8%), stop $116.25 (−15.1%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $116.25.

What are the risks of investing in CHKP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CHKP overvalued or undervalued?

Check Point Software Technologi trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CHKP?

45 analysts cover CHKP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $148.

What does Check Point Software Technologi do?Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security...

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. It provides a multilevel security architecture that defends enterprises' cloud, network, mobile devices, endpoints information, and IOT solutions. The company offers Mesh Network Security, which comprises Firewall, Maestro Hyperscale Firewall, Firewall Software R82.10, Spark Firewall, and AI Powered Security Management for hybrid cloud, internet and perimeter gateways, and branch locations. It also provides Workspace Security Platform, including email, endpoint, mobile, browser, and XDR security solutions across devices, browsers, SaaS apps, and remote access. In addition, the company offers Threat Exposure Management platforms comprising threat intelligence, vulnerability detection and prioritization, and safe remediation. Further, it offers AI Security platforms comprising workforce and agent security, and red teaming solutions. Additionally, the company offers cyber security services, including managed detection and response, incident response, security consulting and managed, security consulting, professional, and training services. The company also provides technical customer support programs and plans; professional services in implementing, upgrading, and optimizing its products comprising design planning and security implementation; and certification and educational training services on its products. Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

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