Four consecutive quarterly earnings misses — including one quarter with a loss far below consensus — combined with a dividend flagged as potentially unsustainable, an extremely elevated put/call ratio, and negative price momentum present a deteriorating risk profile despite strong year-over-year revenue growth.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Pattern↓Deteriorating
- Dividend Yield Trap Risk↓Deteriorating
- Revenue Growth May Stabilize→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Concentration risk — Counterparty: BXMT Advisors L.L.C..
Blackstone Mortgage Trust originates and manages senior floating-rate commercial real estate loans across North America, Europe, and Australia, with a $18.2 billion portfolio of 131 loans at December 31, 2025. The company earns net interest income on its floating-rate loan book... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Concentration risk — Counterparty: BXMT Advisors L.L.C.. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
About Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust held a $18.2 billion senior commercial mortgage loan portfolio across 131 loans at December 31, 2025, with 97% of principal balance at floating rates. The portfolio spans North America, Europe, and Australia, focusing on senior loans secured by institutional-quality assets in major markets. During 2025, originations of $5.7 billion were offset by $6.1 billion in repayments, for net repayments of $452.8 million.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust earns net interest income from the spread between its floating-rate loan yields and floating-rate liabilities, including $10.1 billion of secured debt bearing a weighted-average spread of +1.83% over benchmark rates at December 31, 2025. The company finances the portfolio through secured credit facilities, CLOs, asset-specific financings, and term loans; during 2025 it issued a $1.0 billion CLO and increased aggregate borrowing capacity by $414.0 million. The company is externally managed by BXMT Advisors L.L.C., a Blackstone subsidiary, under a Management Agreement entitling the Manager to base and incentive fees, with no direct employees and no obligation on manager personnel to dedicate specific time. Competitors for senior commercial mortgage origination include other REITs, specialty finance companies, commercial banks, and insurance companies. Total liquidity was $1.0 billion at December 31, 2025, with no corporate debt maturities until 2027.
Show full overview
Blackstone Mortgage Trust's net income is structurally tied to short-term benchmark rates: with 97% of the loan portfolio at floating rates financed by floating-rate liabilities, net equity income rises with rates and falls when rates decline. The 10-K notes that higher interest rates have contributed to loan non-performance, modifications, defaults, and foreclosures among certain borrowers — particularly in office properties with long-term leases entered in a lower interest rate environment. This dual exposure, where declining rates reduce margins while prolonged elevated rates stress collateral values, may limit the company's ability to pay dividends depending on rate trajectory.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
From Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE:BXMT) Hits New 52-Week Low - What's Next? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Blackstone Mortgage earnings on deck as credit worries mount By Investing.com - Investing.com India — Investing.com India negative
- NEWS Blackstone Mortgage earnings on deck as credit worries mount By Investing.com - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia negative
- NEWS Blackstone Mortgage earnings on deck as credit worries mount By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa negative
- NEWS Blackstone Mortgage earnings on deck as credit worries mount By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria negative
Generated 2026-08-15T11:27:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartyBXMT Advisors L.L.C.10-K Item 1: 'We are externally managed by BXMT Advisors L.L.C. ... We do not have any employees.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Concentration risk — Counterparty: BXMT Advisors L.L.C.. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $13.47. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.41 (+13.3% upside). Prior stop was $13.47. Stop-loss: $13.47.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: BXMT Advisors L.L.C.; Consecutive earnings misses (4); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 181.3 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover BXMT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. do?Blackstone Mortgage Trust originates and manages senior floating-rate commercial real estate loans across North...
Blackstone Mortgage Trust originates and manages senior floating-rate commercial real estate loans across North America, Europe, and Australia, with a $18.2 billion portfolio of 131 loans at December 31, 2025. The company earns net interest income on its floating-rate loan book and is externally managed by BXMT Advisors LLC, a Blackstone subsidiary, with no direct employees.