Value
6.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.7 |
| p ocf | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸P/OCF: 5.2x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
BXMT · Why this verdict
Why Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BXMT is a mortgage REIT with 31.6% upside to the analyst target and a 17.1% dividend yield, but earnings missed in 3 of 4 quarters, options show heavy put positioning and the stock is in a downtrend, so reducing the position is favored.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $11.00 the stock is 31.6% below the $14.48 analyst target against 8.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 3.95, with a P/OCF of 5.2x. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $14.48 target as earnings stabilize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is 42% off its high, and the value inputs have only 0.5 confidence because P/E is not applicable to REITs. | ||
Earnings missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -$2.07 vs a $0.27 estimate on 2026-02-11, though the latest report beat ($0.38 vs $0.24). Last 4 quarters | Earnings continue to be volatile relative to estimates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a 56% beat, which may mark the end of the credit-loss charges. | ||
The dividend yield is 17.1%, with dividend safety scored only 5.5/10. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety stays near 5.5/10 and the payout stays under pressure. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMortgage REITs must distribute most taxable income, and a 17.1% yield may reflect a depressed price rather than a coming cut. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 6.31 and implied volatility is 88%, with short interest at 11%. Risk breakdown | Options positioning stays defensive until earnings improve. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy put buying can reflect hedging by holders rather than outright bearish bets, and OBV is rising. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with a -5.9%/30d slope, a confirmed downtrend, even though OBV is rising and volume surged 2.1x on an up move. Momentum breakdown | Price stays below its 200-day average until a reversal is confirmed. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVolume accumulation and a strong MACD point to a possible recovery from a deep drawdown. | ||
At $11.00 the stock is 31.6% below the $14.48 analyst target against 8.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 3.95, with a P/OCF of 5.2x.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $14.48 target as earnings stabilize.
CounterThe stock is 42% off its high, and the value inputs have only 0.5 confidence because P/E is not applicable to REITs.
Earnings missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -$2.07 vs a $0.27 estimate on 2026-02-11, though the latest report beat ($0.38 vs $0.24).
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings continue to be volatile relative to estimates.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a 56% beat, which may mark the end of the credit-loss charges.
The dividend yield is 17.1%, with dividend safety scored only 5.5/10.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety stays near 5.5/10 and the payout stays under pressure.
CounterMortgage REITs must distribute most taxable income, and a 17.1% yield may reflect a depressed price rather than a coming cut.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 6.31 and implied volatility is 88%, with short interest at 11%.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Options positioning stays defensive until earnings improve.
CounterHeavy put buying can reflect hedging by holders rather than outright bearish bets, and OBV is rising.
The stock is below its 200-day average with a -5.9%/30d slope, a confirmed downtrend, even though OBV is rising and volume surged 2.1x on an up move.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays below its 200-day average until a reversal is confirmed.
CounterVolume accumulation and a strong MACD point to a possible recovery from a deep drawdown.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 9.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.0x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $46,818 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 1.3 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.80
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 17.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:97d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.25
Upside
+19.5%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.25 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.0, and Catalyst at 3.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12, more than 17% under the current $14.48.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3High Yield Uncertain Safety
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 10% from current 17.1% because of a payout cut.
- P4Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 10 from current 6.31.
- P5Downtrend With Volume Accumulation
Trip ifPrice drops to $10.23 or lower, the stop level, more than 7% below the current $11.00.