A high-quality infrastructure-software franchise with a wide economic moat, 148% free cash flow conversion, and rising earnings estimates is caught in a confirmed technical downtrend following a death cross — the quality and fundamental case is compelling at 29.4% upside to the analyst target, but entry is premature until momentum conditions clear. Geographic concentration of 59% outside the U.S. adds a risk layer that the fundamentals alone cannot fully offset.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- High Quality Cash Compounding→Stable
- Momentum Confirmed Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Bentley Systems, Incorporated (BSY) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $36.24, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: outside U.S. (59.0%).
Bentley Systems develops infrastructure engineering software across public works/utilities, resources, industrial, and commercial sectors, serving nearly 42,000 accounts in 189 countries. Revenue flows primarily from E365 consumption subscriptions and SELECT perpetual licenses,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $36.24, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: outside U.S. (59.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Bentley Systems, Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Bentley Systems (BSY) Surges 3.12% as Infrastructure Software Sector Gains Momentum - Island Reversal - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS Bentley Systems (BSY) Surges 3.12% as Infrastructure Software Sector Gains Momentum - Equal Weight ETF - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS Bentley Systems (BSY) Achieves FedRAMP Authorization for Cloud S - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Teachers Retirement System of The State of Kentucky Makes New $1.72 Million Investment in Bentley Systems, Incorporated — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS What shapes market opinion on Bentley (BSY) stock | Bentley posts 2.5% EPS beat on strong core demand - Earnings Growth — newsline.com positive
Generated 2026-08-15T17:17:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicoutside U.S.59%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 59%, 58%, and 58% of our total revenues were from outside the U.S. for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
- LOWGeographicAPAC including China18%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 18% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023 relate to infrastructure projects in APAC, including China.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $36.24, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: outside U.S. (59.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $33.70. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $40.02 (+10.4% upside). Prior stop was $33.70. Stop-loss: $33.70.
Concentration risk — Geographic: outside U.S. (59.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Bentley Systems, Incorporated trades at a P/E of 40.7 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover BSY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $44.
What does Bentley Systems, Incorporated do?Bentley Systems develops infrastructure engineering software across public works/utilities, resources, industrial, and...
Bentley Systems develops infrastructure engineering software across public works/utilities, resources, industrial, and commercial sectors, serving nearly 42,000 accounts in 189 countries. Revenue flows primarily from E365 consumption subscriptions and SELECT perpetual licenses, with direct sales generating approximately 94% of 2025 revenues.