Value
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.63
BSY · Why this verdict
Why Bentley Systems (BSY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bentley Systems is a wide-moat infrastructure software company with 137% FCF/NI cash conversion and a 3-quarter beat streak, but a 25.9x forward P/E, an overbought chart and a price above the analyst target leave little margin of safety into earnings in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bentley has a wide economic moat, strong margins of 18% and excellent cash conversion of 137% FCF/NI. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI stays above 100% and operating margin stays above 17% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe current ratio component is low at 2.4 out of 10, and 59% of business outside the U.S. adds currency and geographic risk. | ||
Bentley beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 4.8%, and the next report is in 4 days. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive at the 2026-11-05 report and the following quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOne quarter missed by 1.0%, guidance is unknown, and with the stock overbought a modest beat may not be enough. | ||
Price of $40.90 is above the analyst target of $40.14 (upside -1.9%) at a forward P/E of 25.9x, so valuation leaves no upside on the consensus view. Analyst target | Analysts raise targets above $44 after the 2026-11-05 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith 15.0% downside to the stop and risk-to-reward of -0.12, a miss could cut the stock sharply. | ||
RSI is at 83 and the 200-day average slope is flat or negative, which signals late-cycle distribution risk despite rising OBV. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 70 without price falling through the $38.52 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum with accumulation volume can persist, and momentum scores 8.0 out of 10. | ||
Insiders sold $6.2M over 90 days (0.05% of market cap) with no buys, a BEARISH signal despite institutions accumulating. Insider | Net insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe sales are small relative to market cap, and insider conviction is scored low at 2.0 out of 10. | ||
Bentley has a wide economic moat, strong margins of 18% and excellent cash conversion of 137% FCF/NI.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI stays above 100% and operating margin stays above 17% over 12 months.
CounterThe current ratio component is low at 2.4 out of 10, and 59% of business outside the U.S. adds currency and geographic risk.
Bentley beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 4.8%, and the next report is in 4 days.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive at the 2026-11-05 report and the following quarter.
CounterOne quarter missed by 1.0%, guidance is unknown, and with the stock overbought a modest beat may not be enough.
Price of $40.90 is above the analyst target of $40.14 (upside -1.9%) at a forward P/E of 25.9x, so valuation leaves no upside on the consensus view.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $44 after the 2026-11-05 report.
CounterWith 15.0% downside to the stop and risk-to-reward of -0.12, a miss could cut the stock sharply.
RSI is at 83 and the 200-day average slope is flat or negative, which signals late-cycle distribution risk despite rising OBV.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 70 without price falling through the $38.52 stop level.
CounterStrong momentum with accumulation volume can persist, and momentum scores 8.0 out of 10.
Insiders sold $6.2M over 90 days (0.05% of market cap) with no buys, a BEARISH signal despite institutions accumulating.
↓DeterioratingInsider
- Expectation
- Net insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap over the next two quarters.
CounterThe sales are small relative to market cap, and insider conviction is scored low at 2.0 out of 10.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.2 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.1 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.6 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 137% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 84)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 84 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $6,239,464 (0.049% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.49
Upside
-7.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.49 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Momentum at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.1, Value at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF/NI falls below 80% from the current 137%.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Rich Valuation Target Reached
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 32x from the current 25.9x without a rise in earnings estimates.
- P4Overbought Late Cycle Momentum
Trip ifShare price falls below $38.52, the stop level, from the current $40.90.
- P5Insider Selling Modest
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.3% of market cap over 90 days from the current 0.05%.