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BSBRBanco Santander Brasil SAHold6.4·$5.77+0.00%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.6x with analysts implying 33% upside to consensus, offering a risk/reward ratio of roughly 3.3-to-1; the central question is whether soft underlying growth can eventually close the valuation gap, or whether the discount proves durable.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Discount Versus ConsensusStable
  • Soft Growth Limits CatalystImproving
  • Momentum Pullback In UptrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Banco Santander Brasil SA (BSBR) Stock Analysis

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services to individuals, small and medium enterprises, and corporate customers in Brazil and internationally. It operates in two segments, Commercial Banking and Global Wholesale... Read more

$5.77+4.6% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#66 of 224 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield6.01%(5y avg 6.75%)Payout130.67%at-risk
Stop $5.39Target $6.03(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$7.10+23.1%3 analysts
$6.03our TP
$5.77price
$7.10mean
$8

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202675d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.6%
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.5
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$43.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn28.7%
ROE11.2%
Rev Growth28.8%
Beta0.18
Dividend6.01%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV86%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.8
Dividend Safety
2.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
2.8
52w Position
6.2
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.95Resistance $5.91

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BSBR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $6.03 (+4.5%), stop $5.39 (−7.1%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BSBR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.03 (+4.6% upside). Target $6.03 (+4.5%), stop $5.39 (−7.1%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $5.39.

What are the risks of investing in BSBR?

Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is BSBR overvalued or undervalued?

Banco Santander Brasil SA trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BSBR?

11 analysts cover BSBR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Banco Santander Brasil SA do?Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services to...

Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services to individuals, small and medium enterprises, and corporate customers in Brazil and internationally. It operates in two segments, Commercial Banking and Global Wholesale Banking. The company offers payment and loyalty products, including credit and debit cards; payroll and real estate loans; home equity financing solutions; microfinance programs; consortiums; agribusiness products, such as credit, securities and other products; call center and digital solutions; nonperforming assets; and insurance products comprising life, personal accident, vehicle, property, and credit insurance, as well as insurance for travel and banking transactions. It also provides emergency solutions for homes, cars, motorcycles, pets, and telemedicine; consumer finance; and corporate and investment banking services, which include cash management, structured trade and working capital solutions, trade and lending, mergers and acquisitions, equity capital markets, investment grade and emerging markets debt, and structured finance, as well as sales markets, market making, energy trading, equities, research, and private debt mobilization and securitization. In addition, the company offers cash management solutions, such as collections, payments, instant payments, and payroll and custody services; advance program, a non-financial platform to support entrepreneurs regarding educational content, certified courses, events focused on management, innovation, internationalization, and team development; customer funding through deposits and other bank funding instruments; and various investments. It offers its products and services through branches, mini-branches, and automated teller machines; call centers; banking correspondents and third-party vendors; and online and mobile banking platforms. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Related stocks: SFBS (ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.) · AUB (Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo) · COLB (Columbia Banking System, Inc.) · ONB (Old National Bancorp) · ZION (Zions Bancorporation N.A.)
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