Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.77
- ▸Attractively valued
BSBR · Why this verdict
Why Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banco Santander Brasil trades at 5.2x forward earnings with a 7.8% dividend and 30.4% upside to the analyst target, but the stock is in a deep downtrend with declining revenue (-15%), heavy selling by insiders and 214% implied volatility.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 5.2x with a 7.8% dividend yield, Banco Santander Brasil is attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 8x while the dividend is maintained over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 5.5 out of 10 and revenue is falling 15%, so a low multiple may reflect real earnings risk in Brazil. | ||
The analyst target of $5.75 sits 30.4% above the $4.41 price with 53% analyst upside noted, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.4. Analyst target | Price moves toward $5.75 while holding above the $4.25 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is below all moving averages with a death cross and RSI near 14, and targets may be cut if the downtrend continues. | ||
Margins are strong at 28% but revenue is declining 15%, and growth ranks near the bottom among peers (0.3 out of 10). Growth breakdown | Revenue decline narrows to better than -5% while margins stay above 25%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThere is no competitive moat, and a continued revenue decline would eventually erode the strong margins. | ||
RSI near 14 below the 200-day average with a death cross signals capitulation, while rising OBV (volume accumulation) hints at buyers stepping in. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 35 and price holds above the $4.25 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD remains bearish and negative news sentiment of -0.67 suggests the selling pressure has not ended. | ||
Insiders sold $2.3M over 90 days across 19 sales against 2 tiny buys, a BEARISH insider signal despite institutions accumulating. Insider | Insider selling stops over the next two quarters and net 90-day value moves above -$1M. | →Stable |
| CounterThe $2.3M is only 0.014% of market cap, so the selling is immaterial. | ||
At a forward P/E of 5.2x with a 7.8% dividend yield, Banco Santander Brasil is attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 8x while the dividend is maintained over 12 months.
CounterDividend safety scores only 5.5 out of 10 and revenue is falling 15%, so a low multiple may reflect real earnings risk in Brazil.
The analyst target of $5.75 sits 30.4% above the $4.41 price with 53% analyst upside noted, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.4.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward $5.75 while holding above the $4.25 stop level.
CounterPrice is below all moving averages with a death cross and RSI near 14, and targets may be cut if the downtrend continues.
Margins are strong at 28% but revenue is declining 15%, and growth ranks near the bottom among peers (0.3 out of 10).
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue decline narrows to better than -5% while margins stay above 25%.
CounterThere is no competitive moat, and a continued revenue decline would eventually erode the strong margins.
RSI near 14 below the 200-day average with a death cross signals capitulation, while rising OBV (volume accumulation) hints at buyers stepping in.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 35 and price holds above the $4.25 stop level.
CounterMACD remains bearish and negative news sentiment of -0.67 suggests the selling pressure has not ended.
Insiders sold $2.3M over 90 days across 19 sales against 2 tiny buys, a BEARISH insider signal despite institutions accumulating.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stops over the next two quarters and net 90-day value moves above -$1M.
CounterThe $2.3M is only 0.014% of market cap, so the selling is immaterial.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -15%
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,679,473 (0.010% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (6.7%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.8 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 7.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.21
Upside
+19.7%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.1; weakest: Catalyst at 3.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.3, Momentum at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value High Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 9x from the current 5.2x without a rise in earnings.
- P2Analyst Upside To 5 75
Trip ifConsensus analyst target falls below $4.80 from the current $5.75.
- P3Strong Margins Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 20% YoY from the current -15%.
- P4Capitulation Downtrend
Trip ifShare price falls below $4.25, the stop level, from the current $4.41.
- P5Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $5M over 90 days from the current $2.3M.