Booz Allen Hamilton has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 17.7%, and trades at a forward P/E of 10.9x with a PEG of 1.06 — but a confirmed death-cross downtrend, declining revenue of 6%, and only about 9% headroom to analyst targets leave the setup unfavorable for new buyers.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Quality Amid Revenue Pressure→Stable
- Government Concentration Structural Risk→Stable
- Valuation Discount With Peg Near One→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor (BAH) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Consulting Services
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5.
Booz Allen Hamilton provides technology and consulting services almost exclusively to U.S. government defense, intelligence, and civil agencies, with commercial clients adding a smaller share. The company employs roughly 31,500 people, deriving 84% of fiscal 2026 revenue from... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor
About Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor
Booz Allen Hamilton derives substantially all revenue from U.S. government defense, intelligence, and civil missions, with 84% of fiscal 2026 revenue flowing from 2,426 active task orders under IDIQ contract vehicles. The top IDIQ vehicle alone accounted for approximately 17% of revenue in fiscal 2026. At March 31, 2026, the company employed roughly 31,500 people across 23 countries, with about 77% holding security clearances. The Department of Veterans Affairs was the single largest civil customer, contributing 10% of total revenue in fiscal 2026.
Revenue flows through three contract types: cost-reimbursable, time-and-materials, and fixed-price. A recent executive order titled "Promoting Efficiency, Accountability, and Performance in Federal Contracting" directs federal agencies to increase firm-fixed-price contracts for new awards and to restructure existing high-dollar contracts to fixed-price where practicable; Booz Allen notes this shift may increase the company's risk of incurring losses as fixed-price contracts transfer cost-overrun exposure to the contractor. The company operates as a single profit-and-loss center, enabling multidisciplinary team assembly across defense, intelligence, and civil markets. Core defense customers include all six branches of the U.S. military, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and Joint Combatant Commands; intelligence customers include the National Security Agency and Defense Intelligence Agency. In fiscal 2026, win rates were 57% on new contract awards and 89% on recompeted contracts across 5,026 total contracts and task orders.
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Congressional appropriations govern task-order funding, and the 10-K notes that a government shutdown, failure to raise the debt ceiling, or spending review could delay, reduce, or terminate active contracts. Booz Allen has already experienced contract impacts, reductions, and cancellations resulting from the U.S. government's review of federal spending, which has reduced total backlog. NDAA fiscal 2026 provisions aim to curb incumbent bid protests, though the 10-K cautions it remains too early to predict the practical impact on protest rates. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K the appointment of Troy Lahr as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 4, 2026.
See also: Industrials · Consulting Services
From Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor
Latest news
- NEWS Booz Allen Adds Ryan Nolan to Board, Audit Committee - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Booz Allen Hamilton Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Booz Allen Hamilton Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (BAH) Shares Surge 3.1% -- What GF Score of 71 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Booz Allen Hamilton appoints Ryan Nolan to board By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government10-K Item 1A: 'We expect to continue to derive the vast majority of our revenue from work performed under U.S. government contracts'
- LOWCustomerDepartment of Veterans Affairs10%10-K Item 1: 'the Department of Veterans Affairs was the single largest customer in fiscal 2026, from which we derived 10% of our revenue'
- LOWCustomertop IDIQ contract vehicle17%10-K Item 1: 'Our top IDIQ contract vehicle represented approximately 17% of our revenue in fiscal 2026'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUMTroy Lahr appointed EVP and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial Officer) effective May 4, 2026. Previously CFO at Sierra Space; prior to that served approximately ten years at Boeing including as CFO for Boeing Defense, Space & Security. No departing CFO named in the filing.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWBoard expanded from 12 to 13 directors effective June 1, 2026. Ryan Nolan appointed as new board member effective June 1, 2026; assigned to Audit Committee. Addition, not a replacement; no reason cited for expansion.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Revenue shrinking — -6.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $79.89 (+27.9%), stop $58.08 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $79.89 (+27.9% upside). Target $79.89 (+27.9%), stop $58.08 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $58.08.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5; Weak growth.
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
24 analysts cover BAH with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $92.
What does Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor do?Booz Allen Hamilton provides technology and consulting services almost exclusively to U.S. government defense,...
Booz Allen Hamilton provides technology and consulting services almost exclusively to U.S. government defense, intelligence, and civil agencies, with commercial clients adding a smaller share. The company employs roughly 31,500 people, deriving 84% of fiscal 2026 revenue from 2,426 active IDIQ task orders, with the Department of Veterans Affairs as the single largest customer at 10% of revenue.