A constructive technical setup—golden cross, above all moving averages—masks unfavorable economics: only 2.3% of headroom to the take-profit with a risk/reward of 0.5 to 1, free cash flow is negative, and both geographic and regulatory exposure are concentrated entirely within a single state and its regulator.
Thesis pillars
- Dual California Concentration Risk→Stable
- Limited Upside Unfavorable Risk Reward→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Concern→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
American States Water Company (AWR) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water
Sell if holding. At $84.76, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC).
American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in 11 counties), a California electric utility (BVES in San Bernardino County), and contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military bases (ASUS). All... Read more
Sell if holding. At $84.76, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — American States Water Company
Latest news
- NEWS AWR (States Water) delivers narrow Q4 2025 earnings beat, shares fall 2 percent on tepid investor sentiment. - Trending — Newser positive
- NEWS American States Water (NYSE:AWR) Raised to Strong-Buy at Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS American States Water (AWR) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Pictet Asset Management Holding SA Has $53.50 Million Stock Position in American States Water Company $AWR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS American States Water: Q1 Earnings Snapshot - KTVB — KTVB neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'Our water and electric utility services are provided in California.'
- HIGHregulatoryCalifornia Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)10-K Item 1: 'GSWC is regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission ... also regulated by the CPUC.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government10-K Item 1: 'the U.S. government is the primary customer for ASUS's contracted services'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved the 2026 Stock Incentive Plan on May 19, 2026, replacing the 2016 plan. Permits grants of stock options, restricted stock, RSUs, and performance awards to executive officers and directors. Compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOWOn March 26, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program for executive officers including CEO Robert J. Sprowls and CFO Eva G. Tang. Cash bonus with objective and discretionary components. Compensatory arrangement only.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOWOn March 12, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved time-vested RSU and performance award RSU grants to CEO Robert J. Sprowls, CFO Eva G. Tang, and other senior officers. Compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $84.76, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $81.52. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $83.59 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $81.52. Stop-loss: $81.52.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
American States Water Company trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 22.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover AWR with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $77.
What does American States Water Company do?American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in...
American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in 11 counties), a California electric utility (BVES in San Bernardino County), and contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military bases (ASUS). All regulated utility revenue comes from California under CPUC oversight; ASUS operates under 50-year firm-fixed-price U.S. government contracts.