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AWRAmerican States Water CompanySell5.2·$77.93+0.21%
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American States Water Company (AWR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. At $77.93, A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC).

American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in 11 counties), a California electric utility (BVES in San Bernardino County), and contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military bases (ASUS). All... Read more

$77.93+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#2 of 6 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-0.68%
IncomeYield2.59%(5y avg 2.06%)Payout57.65%sustainable
Stop $74.47Target $79.40(resistance)A.R:R -3.4:1
Analyst target$76.00-2.5%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. At $77.93, A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.7
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA15.0
Profit Mgn19.7%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta0.59
Dividend2.59%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our water and electric utility services are provided in California.'
  • HIGHregulatoryCalifornia Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)
    10-K Item 1: 'GSWC is regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission ... also regulated by the CPUC.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government
    10-K Item 1: 'the U.S. government is the primary customer for ASUS's contracted services'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved the 2026 Stock Incentive Plan on May 19, 2026, replacing the 2016 plan. Permits grants of stock options, restricted stock, RSUs, and performance awards to executive officers and directors. Compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    On March 26, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program for executive officers including CEO Robert J. Sprowls and CFO Eva G. Tang. Cash bonus with objective and discretionary components. Compensatory arrangement only.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOW
    On March 12, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved time-vested RSU and performance award RSU grants to CEO Robert J. Sprowls, CFO Eva G. Tang, and other senior officers. Compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -3.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.90Resistance $81.02

Price Targets

$74
$79
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R-3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AWR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $77.93, A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $74.47. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.40 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $74.47. Stop-loss: $74.47.

What are the risks of investing in AWR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AWR overvalued or undervalued?

American States Water Company trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AWR?

9 analysts cover AWR with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $76.

What does American States Water Company do?American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in...

American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in 11 counties), a California electric utility (BVES in San Bernardino County), and contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military bases (ASUS). All regulated utility revenue comes from California under CPUC oversight; ASUS operates under 50-year firm-fixed-price U.S. government contracts.

Related stocks: SBS (Companhia de saneamento Basico ) · WTRG (Essential Utilities, Inc.) · HTO (H2O America) · AWK (American Water Works Company, I) · CWT (California Water Service Group)
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