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AVPTAvePoint, Inc.Sell6.0·$13.45-0.91%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

This software infrastructure company delivers strong double-digit revenue growth and has beaten earnings three of the last four quarters with a favorable reward-to-risk profile at current prices, but heavy enterprise segment concentration and elevated leverage are meaningful offset risks while the technical picture remains in recovery mode.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth ProfileStable
  • Enterprise Concentration Leverage RiskDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat Track RecordStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $13.45, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%).

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The... Read more

$13.45+8.3% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#36 of 104 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.87%
Stop $12.59Target $14.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$16.71+24.3%13 analysts
$14.54our TP
$13.45price
$16.71mean
$26

Sell if holding. At $13.45, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.3%
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.3
P/E (Fwd)27.1
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA46.6
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta1.19
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish
IV84%elevated
Max Pain$20+48.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductEnterprise segment52%
    10-K Item 1: 'the Enterprise segment accounted for 52% of our total annual recurring revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.64Resistance $14.38

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $13.45, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.59. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.54 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $12.59. Stop-loss: $12.59.

What are the risks of investing in AVPT?

Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is AVPT overvalued or undervalued?

AvePoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.3 (forward 27.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVPT?

20 analysts cover AVPT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does AvePoint, Inc. do?AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+...

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The Enterprise segment (>5,000 seats) drove 52% of total ARR at end of 2025, with ~6,000 channel partners handling most SMB and mid-market distribution.

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