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AVPTAvePoint, Inc.Hold6.1·$13.40-2.55%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

This software infrastructure company delivers strong double-digit revenue growth and has beaten earnings three of the last four quarters with a favorable reward-to-risk profile at current prices, but heavy enterprise segment concentration and elevated leverage are meaningful offset risks while the technical picture remains in recovery mode.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth ProfileDeteriorating
  • Enterprise Concentration Leverage RiskImproving
  • Earnings Beat Track RecordStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.3%.

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The... Read more

$13.40+8.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#27 of 103 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.86%
Stop $12.54Target $14.60(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$16.78+25.2%13 analysts
$14.60our TP
$13.40price
$16.78mean
$26

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.3%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.5
P/E (Fwd)27.2
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA46.8
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta1.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV82%elevated
Max Pain$17+26.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductEnterprise segment52%
    10-K Item 1: 'the Enterprise segment accounted for 52% of our total annual recurring revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.6
Bollinger
2.3
52w Position
3.5
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.73Resistance $13.82

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVPT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.40, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.3%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $14.60 (+9.0%), stop $12.54 (−6.9%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.60 (+8.3% upside). Target $14.60 (+9.0%), stop $12.54 (−6.9%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $12.54.

What are the risks of investing in AVPT?

Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.3%.

Is AVPT overvalued or undervalued?

AvePoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.5 (forward 27.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AVPT?

20 analysts cover AVPT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does AvePoint, Inc. do?AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+...

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The Enterprise segment (>5,000 seats) drove 52% of total ARR at end of 2025, with ~6,000 channel partners handling most SMB and mid-market distribution.

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