AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $192.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision-strike munitions, counter-UAS, space/cyber, and directed-energy capabilities across two segments (Autonomous Systems; Space, Cyber and Directed Energy), following its May 2025 acquisition of... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $192.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment closed its acquisition of BlueHalo on May 1, 2025, moving from a single UAS-centric business into two reportable segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy. Prior to that deal, sales to the U.S. government — inclusive of foreign military sales — made up approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue, with the Department of Defense alone accounting for 35%, while international sales contributed 52%, including 18% from Ukraine.
AeroVironment earns revenue primarily from selling and supporting small and medium uncrewed aircraft systems (Puma, JUMP 20, Switchblade loitering munitions), counter-UAS radio-frequency and directed-energy systems (Titan, Locust), and — after the BlueHalo acquisition — space-qualified hardware, laser communications, and cyber/electronic-warfare capabilities to the U.S. Army, Marine Corps, Special Operations Command, Air Force, Navy, Space Force, Cyber Command, allied governments, and a smaller base of commercial and public-safety customers. Contracts are funded largely through DoD operational needs statements and, to a lesser extent, programs of record, both of which limit multi-year funding visibility and are terminable at the government's will. The company also earns customer-funded R&D revenue by developing new capabilities under government contracts, while continuing to invest internally in R&D across autonomy, directed energy, and space hardware. AeroVironment competes against much larger, better-resourced primes including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Anduril across its various product lines.
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AeroVironment's growth path is directly tied to U.S. and allied defense budgets, and the 10-K flags a live near-term threat: in January 2025 President Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency to review federal spending, followed a month later by a directive to specifically probe Pentagon spending for waste and fraud. The company previously received — and had lifted — a stop-work order on foreign-military-sales contracts tied to shifting foreign-aid priorities, and separately flags the paused U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, a country that alone generated 18% of total sales revenue in fiscal 2025, as a risk to future orders.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Tariffs, Pentagon Task Force Signal Major Shift In US Drone Warfare and Industrial Policy — benzinga Aug 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS QUICK SPARK: Drone Stocks Rally on Trump's Latest Tariff Move — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What's Going On With the Rise in AeroVironment Stock? — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Is Red Cat Stock Surging Friday? — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Trump’s New Drone Tariffs Shield US Makers From Foreign Rivals, Sending Defense Giants Kratos and AeroVironment Higher W — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-08-16T16:37:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government (including foreign military sales)75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government ... represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Department of Defense (DoD)35%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 35% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Army20%10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 20% of our revenue from the U.S. Army pursuant to orders placed under contract by the U.S. Army'
- MEDIUMCustomerother U.S. government agencies and subcontractors27%10-K Item 1: 'other U.S. government agencies and government subcontractors accounted for 27% of our sales revenue.'
- HIGHGeographicinternational sales52%10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 52% of our revenue from international sales, including U.S. government foreign military sales in which an end user is a foreign government'
- MEDIUMGeographicUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'of which Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Kevin McDonnell will retire; EVP/CFO Sean Woodward (currently CFO of the Autonomous Systems segment) succeeds him effective May 1, 2026. McDonnell continues through April 30, 2026 in a non-officer transition role. Clean, planned handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell is succeeded by Robert Smith as EVP/COO effective April 13, 2026. Truesdell, who had announced his intent to retire, continues in an advisory role through April 30, 2026 then transitions to consulting. Clean, planned handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified AeroVironment of his intent to retire effective upon naming a successor; he remains principal operating officer during the search and will consult afterward. Successor (Robert Smith) was announced about 3 weeks later.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $192.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $179.31. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $203.19 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $179.31. Stop-loss: $179.31.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (including foreign military sales) (75.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international sales (52.0%); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 43.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $226.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision-strike munitions, counter-UAS,...
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision-strike munitions, counter-UAS, space/cyber, and directed-energy capabilities across two segments (Autonomous Systems; Space, Cyber and Directed Energy), following its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo. In fiscal 2025, sales to the U.S. government — including the DoD at approximately 35% of revenue — represented about 75% of revenue, while international sales, including Ukraine at 18%, made up roughly 52%.