AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend→Stable
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.09: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AeroVironment designs and manufactures defense technology across autonomous systems (UAS, C-UAS, precision strike/loitering munitions) and space, cyber, and directed energy capabilities, following its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo. The company sells primarily to the U.S.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.09: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment reorganized into two segments in fiscal 2025 — Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy — after closing its acquisition of BlueHalo in May 2025. Sales to the U.S. government, including foreign military sales, made up approximately 75% of revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025, with the Department of Defense alone contributing about 35%. International sales reached roughly 52% of revenue, with Ukraine representing about 18% of total sales.
AeroVironment sells primarily to the U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments through direct commercial sales and foreign military sales channels, supplemented by growing intelligence-community, public-safety, and commercial demand for its uncrewed systems and directed-energy products. The BlueHalo acquisition added space, cyber, and electronic-warfare capabilities alongside the legacy Autonomous Systems lineup of Switchblade loitering munitions, Puma and JUMP small and medium UAS, and Titan counter-drone systems. Government contracts expose the company to annual congressional appropriations cycles and the risk of stop-work orders tied to shifting foreign-military-aid priorities, as occurred with a previously issued and later lifted stop-work order. AeroVironment competes against larger, better-resourced defense primes including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, and RTX, as well as newer entrants such as Anduril Industries and Shield AI, some of which can bundle broader weapons-system contracts that AeroVironment cannot match.
Show full overview
AeroVironment's government-contract concentration is unusually direct for a defense supplier of its size: 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue came from U.S. government sales and 35% from the Department of Defense alone, with a single country, Ukraine, contributing 18% of total sales through foreign military financing. That mix makes results sensitive to the Pentagon spending review the Department of Government Efficiency launched in February 2025 and to the paused U.S. military assistance to Ukraine disclosed in the fiscal 2025 filing — either of which could shrink the funding base faster than new international or commercial orders could replace it.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS AeroVironment Says Joint Interagency Task Force 401 Selects Titan MS System For $80.5M Contract Award In Support Of Dome — benzinga Jul 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS AeroVironment Awarded 3-Yr, $500M IDIQ Contract In Support Of Joint Interagency Task Force 401’s Domestic Shield Program — benzinga Jul 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Consumer Tech (June 29-July 2): Microsoft Announces Layoffs, Meta & Google Sued In Several States & More — benzinga Jul 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Benzinga Bulls and Bears: AeroVironment, Reddit, Oracle — And Stocks End Week on High Note — benzinga Jul 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS 10 Industrials Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T12:51:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. Government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerDoD35%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 35% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- LOWGeographicUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'of which Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue.'
- HIGHGeographicinternational sales52%10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 52% of our revenue from international sales, including U.S. government foreign military sales in which an end user is a foreign government'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMSean Woodward named EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who previously announced his intent to retire July 31, 2026. McDonnell to remain in a non-officer capacity through the transition.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMRobert Smith named EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell, who is retiring upon his successor's appointment. Truesdell to continue in an advisory/consulting role through the transition.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified the company of his intent to retire effective upon appointment of a successor. Company conducting search for new principal operating officer; no disagreement with issuer cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.09: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $164.46. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $232.75 (+31.6% upside). Prior stop was $164.46. Stop-loss: $164.46.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (75.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international sales (52.0%); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 41.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $259.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment designs and manufactures defense technology across autonomous systems (UAS, C-UAS, precision...
AeroVironment designs and manufactures defense technology across autonomous systems (UAS, C-UAS, precision strike/loitering munitions) and space, cyber, and directed energy capabilities, following its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo. The company sells primarily to the U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments, with government and foreign military sales together representing the large majority of revenue.