AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $151.30: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike loitering munitions (Switchblade), counter-UAS, space and directed energy, and cyber/electronic warfare capabilities across two segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $151.30: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment closed its acquisition of BlueHalo on May 1, 2025, adding space, cyber and directed-energy capabilities to a defense technology business that, in the year prior to the deal, drew approximately 20% of revenue from the U.S. Army, 27% from other U.S. government agencies and subcontractors, and 53% from foreign customers — including 18% from Ukraine — for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025. The company now operates two segments: Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy.
AeroVironment earns revenue mainly through U.S. government contracts — funded via operational needs statements and, to a lesser extent, standing programs of record — supplemented by direct commercial sales and foreign military sales to allied governments. Government contracts are generally terminable at will and not fully funded at inception, which limits the company's visibility into future backlog conversion. As of April 30, 2025, prior to the BlueHalo deal, AeroVironment held 353 issued U.S. patents and 103 pending applications, with BlueHalo adding another 150 issued patents and 60 pending; intellectual property protection sits alongside continued internal R&D investment as a core cost driver. The company competes against Anduril Industries and Lockheed Martin across its uncrewed systems, precision strike, counter-drone, space and cyber business lines, and relies on a national manufacturing footprint plus in-house robotics, sensor and autonomy engineering rather than third-party original design manufacturers.
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Beyond program mix, AeroVironment's 10-K flags exposure to shifting federal budget priorities: the filing cites the Department of Government Efficiency's review of Pentagon spending, the risk of government shutdowns delaying appropriations, and a previously issued stop-work order on foreign military financing contracts tied to shifting foreign-aid priorities, including a pause on U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. Because Ukraine represented 18% of total sales in fiscal 2025, any sustained reduction in foreign military financing support could weigh on international revenue independent of the company's core DoD relationship. All U.S. government contracts remain terminable at will, meaning backlog does not guarantee realized revenue even absent a formal budget cut.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 19, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Here's How Much $1000 Invested In AeroVironment 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today — benzinga Jul 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS AeroVironment Awarded $117.3M U.S. Army Contract For Its P550 Electric Vertical Take-Off And Landing UAS To Execute Long — benzinga Jul 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS AeroVironment Stock Climbs: What's Happening Today? — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS 10 Industrials Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Raymond James Upgrades AeroVironment to Outperform, Announces $210 Price Target — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-27T13:52:55Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerU.S. Army20%10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 20% of our revenue from the U.S. Army pursuant to orders placed under contract by the U.S. Army'
- MEDIUMCustomerother U.S. government agencies and subcontractors27%10-K Item 1: 'other U.S. government agencies and government subcontractors accounted for 27% of our sales revenue'
- HIGHGeographicforeign customers53%10-K Item 1: 'Sales revenue to foreign customers, inclusive of foreign military sales made through the U.S. DoD, commercial and consumer customers accounted for the remaining 53% of sales revenue'
- LOWCustomerUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'of which Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment named Sean Woodward EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who previously announced his retirement; McDonnell remains through April 30, 2026 to assist the transition.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment named Robert Smith EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell, who previously announced his retirement; Truesdell continues in an advisory/consulting role to assist the transition.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified AeroVironment of his intent to retire effective upon appointment of a successor; the company began a search for a new COO. No reason cited beyond retirement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $151.30: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $139.04. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $203.19 (+35.9% upside). Prior stop was $139.04. Stop-loss: $139.04.
Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign customers (53.0%); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 33.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $226.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike loitering munitions...
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike loitering munitions (Switchblade), counter-UAS, space and directed energy, and cyber/electronic warfare capabilities across two segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy, following its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo. The U.S. Army accounted for approximately 20% of fiscal 2025 revenue and other U.S. government agencies for 27%, while foreign customers, including Ukraine at 18% of total sales, made up the remaining 53%.