AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $148.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS, space and directed energy, and cyber/electronic warfare capabilities across two segments — Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy — following... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $148.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment generated approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue from the U.S. government — the Department of Defense alone contributed 35% — while international sales, including foreign military sales, accounted for 52% of revenue, with Ukraine alone representing 18% of total sales. The company now organizes its business into two segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy, following its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo, expected to raise the share of revenue from U.S. government customers in fiscal 2026.
AeroVironment earns revenue from products and services sold to the U.S. Department of Defense and other government agencies as a prime contractor or subcontractor, to allied governments through direct commercial sales or foreign military sales, and to commercial and public-safety customers. A portion of its U.S. military contracts are funded through operational needs statements rather than programs of record, which the company says gives it less visibility into future funding, and all of its U.S. government contracts are terminable at will. The company previously received — and had lifted shortly after — a stop-work order tied to foreign military financing shifts, and it flags the recently announced pause on U.S. military assistance to Ukraine as a risk to future orders given Ukraine's 18% share of total sales. Following the BlueHalo acquisition, AeroVironment added space-qualified hardware, directed-energy weapons, laser communications, and cyber and mission-systems capabilities to its portfolio.
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AeroVironment's government-funding exposure now intersects with an active federal spending review: in January 2025 the administration established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and in February 2025 directed it to review Pentagon spending for potential waste and fraud — a review that directly touches the 75% of AeroVironment's revenue tied to U.S. government sales. Because all of the company's U.S. government contracts are terminable at will and a portion is funded through operational needs statements rather than programs of record, a DOGE-driven reprioritization could cancel or delay existing awards with limited notice, independent of AeroVironment's own execution or the merits of any individual program.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-29Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Reported Earlier "US Expanding Long-Range Commercial Drone Testing Program" - Bloomberg News — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS AeroVironment's MacCready Works Receives Contract To Co-Design, Co-Manufacture Three Mars Helicopters For NASA's SkyFall — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS AeroVironment Stock Drops Despite $100 Million Investment — benzinga Aug 24, 2026 negative
- NEWS AeroVironment Announces $100M Moorpark Campus Investment To Bring Five Southern California Locations Together — benzinga Aug 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS Reported Earlier, AeroVironment, Eyeonix SA Form AV Eagle Joint Venture To Build Defense Manufacturing Presence In Greec — benzinga Aug 21, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-08-29T09:07:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Department of Defense (DoD)35%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 35% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- HIGHGeographicinternational sales52%10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 52% of our revenue from international sales, including U.S. government foreign military sales in which an end user is a foreign government, during the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025'
- LOWGeographicUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'of which Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment appointed Sean Woodward as EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who will retire July 31, 2026 after assisting in a smooth transition through April 30, 2026. Woodward previously served as CFO of the Autonomous Systems segment.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment appointed Robert Smith (formerly VP, Radio Frequency Solutions at Raytheon/RTX) as EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell, who will transition to an advisory then consulting role through April 30, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified AeroVironment of his intent to retire, effective upon appointment of a successor; the company said it was conducting a search for a new principal operating officer and that Truesdell would continue in his role and later serve as a transition consultant.SEC filing →
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $148.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $140.21. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $203.19 (+37.3% upside). Prior stop was $140.21. Stop-loss: $140.21.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international sales (52.0%); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 34.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $226.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS,...
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS, space and directed energy, and cyber/electronic warfare capabilities across two segments — Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy — following its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo. In fiscal 2025 (pre-BlueHalo), sales to the U.S. government represented approximately 75% of revenue, with the DoD alone accounting for 35%, while international sales contributed 52%, including 18% from Ukraine.