AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $160.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
AeroVironment is a defense technology company delivering autonomous systems (Switchblade, Raven, JUMP), counter-UAS, space, cyber, and directed energy solutions; it acquired BlueHalo on May 1, 2025. U.S. government revenue (including FMS) was approximately 75% of fiscal 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $160.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning AeroVironment Stock In The Last 10 Years — benzinga May 13, 2026 positive
- AeroVironment Awarded Three-Year, $43M Contract By Department Of War To Integrate PANTHER Antenna Array On DoW SkyRange — benzinga May 12, 2026 positive
- AeroVironment Awarded U.S. Army Prototype Agreement For The Low-Altitude Stalking And Strike Ordnance Program To Support — benzinga May 4, 2026 positive
- $100 Invested In AeroVironment 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 positive
- AeroVironment Advances On Multi-Domain Defense Success — benzinga Apr 21, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- HIGHCustomerUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Army20%10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 20% of our revenue from the U.S. Army pursuant to orders placed under contract by the U.S. Army on behalf of itself as well as for several other organizations within the U.S. DoD.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-23Item 5.02HIGHCFO Kevin McDonnell notified AeroVironment of decision to retire effective July 31, 2026. No successor named at time of filing; Company to search for replacement.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved Non-Qualified Deferred Compensation Plan for key employees and non-employee directors, effective March 1, 2026. Compensatory arrangement only.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified Company of intent to retire upon appointment of successor. Truesdell to continue as principal operating officer until successor in place; no successor named at time of filing.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMRobert Smith appointed EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell who is retiring. Truesdell to remain in advisory role through April 30, 2026, then consulting role.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMSean Woodward appointed EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell who remains CFO through April 30, 2026 then transitions to non-officer role through retirement date of July 31, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $160.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $151.32. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $278.89 (+74.1% upside). Prior stop was $151.32. Stop-loss: $151.32.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Ukraine (18.0%); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 39.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $310.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology company delivering autonomous systems (Switchblade, Raven, JUMP), counter-UAS,...
AeroVironment is a defense technology company delivering autonomous systems (Switchblade, Raven, JUMP), counter-UAS, space, cyber, and directed energy solutions; it acquired BlueHalo on May 1, 2025. U.S. government revenue (including FMS) was approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue, with Ukraine at 18% and the U.S. Army at 20%. The company serves U.S. DoD branches, intelligence agencies, and allied governments worldwide.