AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $142.60: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS technologies, space-based platforms and directed energy and cyber capabilities, organized into two segments: Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $142.60: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment closed its acquisition of BlueHalo on May 1, 2025, adding space, cyber and directed-energy capabilities to a defense technology business that, in the year prior to the deal, drew approximately 20% of revenue from the U.S. Army, 27% from other U.S. government agencies and subcontractors, and 53% from foreign customers — including 18% from Ukraine — for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025. The company now operates two segments: Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy.
AeroVironment earns revenue mainly through U.S. government contracts — funded via operational needs statements and, to a lesser extent, standing programs of record — supplemented by direct commercial sales and foreign military sales to allied governments. Government contracts are generally terminable at will and not fully funded at inception, which limits the company's visibility into future backlog conversion. As of April 30, 2025, prior to the BlueHalo deal, AeroVironment held 353 issued U.S. patents and 103 pending applications, with BlueHalo adding another 150 issued patents and 60 pending; intellectual property protection sits alongside continued internal R&D investment as a core cost driver. The company competes against Anduril Industries and Lockheed Martin across its uncrewed systems, precision strike, counter-drone, space and cyber business lines, and relies on a national manufacturing footprint plus in-house robotics, sensor and autonomy engineering rather than third-party original design manufacturers.
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Beyond program mix, AeroVironment's 10-K flags exposure to shifting federal budget priorities: the filing cites the Department of Government Efficiency's review of Pentagon spending, the risk of government shutdowns delaying appropriations, and a previously issued stop-work order on foreign military financing contracts tied to shifting foreign-aid priorities, including a pause on U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. Because Ukraine represented 18% of total sales in fiscal 2025, any sustained reduction in foreign military financing support could weigh on international revenue independent of the company's core DoD relationship. All U.S. government contracts remain terminable at will, meaning backlog does not guarantee realized revenue even absent a formal budget cut.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 19, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-19Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS AeroVironment Stock Climbs: What's Happening Today? — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS 10 Industrials Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Raymond James Upgrades AeroVironment to Outperform, Announces $210 Price Target — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Is AeroVironment Stock Falling Monday? — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 negative
- NEWS AeroVironment Awarded MQ-31A Military Designation From Italy's Directorate Of Aeronautical Armaments And Airworthiness T — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-20T05:32:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerDoD35%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 35% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- HIGHCustomerforeign customers53%10-K Item 1: 'Sales revenue to foreign customers ... accounted for the remaining 53% of sales revenue during our fiscal year ended April 30, 2025'
- LOWGeographicUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'of which Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMSean Woodward appointed EVP & CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who continues in a non-officer capacity through the transition. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMRobert Smith named EVP & COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell, who transitions to an advisory then consulting role through April 30, 2026. Clean handoff; no successor dispute cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified intent to retire, effective upon appointment of a successor; company began search for new COO. No successor named at time of filing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $142.60: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $132.25. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $208.51 (+46.6% upside). Prior stop was $132.25. Stop-loss: $132.25.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: foreign customers (53.0%); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 31.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $232.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS...
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS technologies, space-based platforms and directed energy and cyber capabilities, organized into two segments: Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy. In fiscal 2025, prior to its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo, the U.S. Army accounted for approximately 20% of revenue, other U.S. government agencies and subcontractors 27%, and foreign customers 53%, including 18% from Ukraine.