AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $138.86: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
AeroVironment, Inc., a defense technology provider, designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $138.86: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 20, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment drew approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue from the U.S. government, including 35% from the Department of Defense directly, with foreign sales - 18% from Ukraine alone - making up much of the balance. On May 1, 2025 the company closed its acquisition of BlueHalo, adding roughly 150 issued U.S. patents to AeroVironment's own 353, and now operates two segments: Autonomous Systems, and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy.
AeroVironment sells uncrewed aircraft systems (Puma, Raven, JUMP 20), loitering munitions (Switchblade, Red Dragon), counter-UAS and electronic-warfare systems (Titan, Freedom Eagle), and, after the BlueHalo acquisition, space hardware, directed-energy weapons (Locust), laser communications, and cyber/OSINT services (HaloCortex), primarily to the U.S. Army, Marine Corps, Special Operations Command, and other DoD branches, plus allied governments through direct commercial or foreign military sales. Revenue comes from both production contracts and customer-funded R&D, supplemented by internally funded R&D aimed at expanding into adjacent defense and commercial markets. The company competes against much larger, better-resourced primes including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, L3Harris, and Anduril, as well as specialized players like Elbit Systems and Shield AI, and differentiates on rapid prototyping, lean manufacturing certified to ISO 9001:2015 and AS9100D, and close relationships with DoD decision-makers cultivated through its Strategic Advisory Group of retired senior military officials.
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A risk distinct from AeroVironment's revenue mix is exposure to U.S. government budget politics rather than program-level demand: the filing notes that in January 2026 the administration established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to review federal spending, and in February 2026 directed it to specifically review Pentagon spending for waste and fraud, adding uncertainty to the congressional appropriations AeroVironment depends on annually. Because roughly three-quarters of revenue flows through this single funding source - and BlueHalo's addition is expected to raise that share further in fiscal 2026 - a sustained pullback in defense appropriations would compress AeroVironment's revenue base more directly than competition from any single rival.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-08Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Rothschild & Co Initiates Coverage On AeroVironment with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $165 — benzinga Oct 6, 2026
- NEWS 10 Industrials Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session — benzinga Oct 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Pete Hegseth Taps Elon Musk, Palmer Luckey to Examine Future of Warfare From Underground to Moon: No 'Creative Limitatio — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS 'Hegseth to Unveil New Pentagon Drone Group, Senator Says' - Bloomberg — benzinga Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Red Cat Misses the Cut in Pentagon's Latest Drone Dominance Round (CORRECTED) — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-08T11:47:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025'
- LOWGeographicUkraine18%10-K Item 1A: 'of which Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMAnnounced Sean Woodward as EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who retires July 31, 2026 and stays CFO through April 30, 2026. Clean handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMAnnounced Robert Smith (ex-Raytheon) as EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding retiring Brad Truesdell, who stays in an advisory role through April 30, 2026. Clean handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified the company on March 12, 2026 of his intent to retire upon appointment of a successor; he continues as principal operating officer until transition. Search underway; no reason beyond retirement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $138.86: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 4.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 20, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $130.22. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $194.97 (+40.4% upside). Prior stop was $130.22. Stop-loss: $130.22.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 31.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $217.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment, Inc., a defense technology provider, designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of...
AeroVironment, Inc., a defense technology provider, designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Autonomous Systems; and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy. The company provides uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), which include small and medium UAS, and kinesis command and control software; and counter-UAS and precision strike, a loitering munitions solution that deliver actionable intelligence and precision firepower modern warfighters, including precision strike, radio frequency and kinetic C-UAS, and electronic warfare systems. It also offers autonomy, AI, and platform technologies; unmanned maritime; and uncrewed ground systems. The company provides digital beamforming technology, a multi-band/beam software defined antenna tile that allows simultaneous communication with multiple satellites; laser communications, a data transmission systems for space operations; space-qualified hardware for line of sight stabilization and control electronics in low, medium, and geostationary earth orbit, as well as cislunar orbits; phased array antenna technology to supports hypersonic telemetry and tracking, and other missile testing; and directed energy solution. It also offers cyber solutions for national security and defense operations. AeroVironment, Inc. was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.