AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 29, 2026
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $126.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AeroVironment develops uncrewed aircraft, loitering munitions such as Switchblade, counter-drone systems, electronic warfare, space, cyber and directed energy products for defense customers. It reports two segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy, the... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $126.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment drew approximately 85% of its revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2026 from the U.S. government, including prime and subcontract work and foreign military sales, and about 63% from the Department of Defense alone. The Arlington, Virginia company reports two segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy, a structure effective May 1, 2025 after the acquisition of BlueHalo Financing Topco, LLC. It operates an international manufacturing footprint across air, land, sea, space and cyber domains.
Autonomous Systems covers small UAS in Groups 1 and 2, including Puma LE, Raven B and VAPOR 55 CLE, medium UAS such as JUMP 20 and T-20, and AV_Halo command and control software. Precision Strike and Defensive Systems includes the Switchblade 300, 400 and 600 loitering munitions, the Red Dragon one-way attack platform, Titan counter-UAS radio frequency systems, the Freedom Eagle kinetic interceptor and electronic warfare products. An Other group houses MacCready Works, the advanced concepts unit that conceived Red Dragon and developed the WildCat vertical take-off UAS for DARPA, plus unmanned maritime and ground vehicles used in explosive ordnance disposal. The company describes U.S. government contracts as generally not fully funded at inception and subject to competitive bidding, so backlog may not convert to sales if appropriations change.
Show full overview
Government dependence is the dominant lens. The 10-K states that the company expects its growth for the foreseeable future to depend to a significant degree on winning government contracts, particularly from the DoD, and that spending reductions or budget cutbacks at those agencies could jeopardize continued performance or new awards. The filing cites the Department of Government Efficiency review of Pentagon spending that began in February 2025 as one reason funding of U.S. government programs is uncertain. Export authorizations from the U.S. government are also needed to ship products to certain countries. In recent 8-K filings, directors Stephen Page and Charles Thomas Burbage each said they would not stand for re-election at the September 2026 annual meeting, and the board added Michael Ruppert, lifting its size from nine to ten.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ARK Invest Increases Stake in AeroVironment — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026
- NEWS Oppenheimer Initiates AeroVironment at Outperform With $205 Price Target — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage On AeroVironment with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $205 — benzinga Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citizens JMP Maintains AeroVironment With Buy Rating, Cuts Target Price — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 negative
- NEWS AeroVironment Maintained at Market Outperform by Citizens — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-28T12:03:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government85%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor ... represented approximately 85% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2026'
- HIGHCustomerDoD principal U.S. government customer63%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 63% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2026.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-07Item 5.02LOWDirector Charles Thomas Burbage will not stand for re-election at the Sept 24, 2026 annual meeting, no disagreement cited. Board expanded from nine to ten and appointed Michael Ruppert as Class II director.SEC filing →
- 2026-07-29Item 5.02LOWDirector Stephen Page notified the board on July 23, 2026 that he will retire at the end of his term and not stand for re-election; no disagreement with the company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $126.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $117.86. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $191.76 (+51.3% upside). Prior stop was $117.86. Stop-loss: $117.86.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (85.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: DoD principal U.S. government customer (63.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 28.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $213.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment develops uncrewed aircraft, loitering munitions such as Switchblade, counter-drone systems, electronic...
AeroVironment develops uncrewed aircraft, loitering munitions such as Switchblade, counter-drone systems, electronic warfare, space, cyber and directed energy products for defense customers. It reports two segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy, the latter added with the May 2025 BlueHalo acquisition. Sales to the U.S. government were about 85% of fiscal 2026 revenue, with the DoD alone at about 63%.