AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $163.20: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AeroVironment makes unmanned aircraft and defense technology — small UAS like Puma and Raven, loitering munitions, and (after its May 2025 BlueHalo acquisition) counter-UAS, space, and cyber/EW systems. Sales to the U.S. government, including foreign military sales, were 75% of... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $163.20: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment derives the vast majority of its business from defense end markets: sales to the U.S. government, whether as prime contractor, subcontractor, or through foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of revenue in fiscal year 2025, with the Department of Defense alone contributing about 35%. The company's May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo added counter-UAS, space, and cyber/electronic-warfare product lines to its existing Autonomous Systems portfolio of small UAS such as Puma, Raven, and the P550.
AeroVironment earns revenue by selling and servicing unmanned systems and related handheld ground-control equipment, spare parts, and accessories under U.S. government contracts that are typically not fully funded at inception and can be terminated by the government at will. Its Small UAS lineup — including Puma LE, Puma 3 AE, Puma VTOL, P550, Raven B, and VAPOR 55 MX — uses common, interoperable ground-control systems designed to lower the cost of expanding a customer's fleet. The BlueHalo acquisition, which closed May 1, 2025, added roughly 150 issued U.S. patents and product lines such as TITAN C-UAS, LOCUST, and WASP, and management expects the deal to push the proportion of revenue tied to the DoD and other U.S. government agencies even higher in fiscal 2026. Much of AeroVironment's funding flows through operational needs statements rather than programs of record, which the company says provides less visibility into future contract funding than a program-of-record structure would.
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AeroVironment's 10-K frames government-funding uncertainty as an active rather than hypothetical risk: the company cites the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency review of Pentagon spending, a stop-work order it previously received (and had lifted) on foreign-military-sales contracts tied to shifting aid priorities, and the paused U.S. military assistance to Ukraine as concrete examples of how budget and policy shifts can interrupt revenue. Because all of AeroVironment's U.S. government contracts are terminable at will, and because DoD funding alone represents roughly 35% of revenue, a sustained pullback in defense appropriations or a reordering of Pentagon program priorities away from unmanned systems would fall disproportionately on this single customer relationship.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-18Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Benzinga Bulls and Bears: GameStop, Marvell, Robinhood — benzinga Sep 12, 2026 neutral
- NEWS S&P 500 Snaps 4-Day Decline as Oil Cools, Dell Jumps 11%: Stock Market Today — benzinga Sep 11, 2026 neutral
- NEWS AeroVironment Stock Drops, B of A Maintains Buy Rating — benzinga Sep 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS Stock Market Today: Nasdaq 100 Tumbles as Oil Spikes 6%, Yields Hit 19-Year High — benzinga Sep 10, 2026 negative
- NEWS Crude Oil Surges 6%; Macy’s Shares Fall After Q2 Results — benzinga Sep 10, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-18T10:17:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerDoD35%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 35% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment appointed Sean Woodward as EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who previously announced his retirement. McDonnell continues through April 30, 2026, then stays on in a non-officer transition role.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment appointed Dr. Robert Smith (ex-Raytheon, Cobham, Lockheed Martin) as EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell, who is retiring. Truesdell continues in an advisory/consulting role through the transition.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment disclosed that COO Brad Truesdell notified the company on March 12, 2026 of his intent to retire, effective upon appointment of a successor. No successor named yet at filing; a search was underway and Truesdell agreed to stay on through the transition.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $163.20: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $151.94. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $200.54 (+22.7% upside). Prior stop was $151.94. Stop-loss: $151.94.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 35.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $223.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment makes unmanned aircraft and defense technology — small UAS like Puma and Raven, loitering munitions, and...
AeroVironment makes unmanned aircraft and defense technology — small UAS like Puma and Raven, loitering munitions, and (after its May 2025 BlueHalo acquisition) counter-UAS, space, and cyber/EW systems. Sales to the U.S. government, including foreign military sales, were 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue, with the DoD alone contributing 35%, a share the company expects to rise as BlueHalo is integrated.