AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $187.40: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision-strike loitering munitions, counter-UAS, space/directed-energy, and cyber capabilities to the U.S. military and allied governments, organized since its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo into... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $187.40: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment drew approximately 75% of its fiscal 2025 revenue from the U.S. government, with the Department of Defense alone accounting for approximately 35%, while international sales -- including foreign military sales -- contributed 52% of revenue, down from 62% a year earlier, with Ukraine alone representing 18% of total sales revenue. The company's Switchblade loitering munitions, Puma and JUMP uncrewed aircraft, and Titan counter-drone systems anchor its Autonomous Systems segment.
AeroVironment closed its acquisition of BlueHalo on May 1, 2025, restructuring the business into two reportable segments: Autonomous Systems (uncrewed aircraft, counter-UAS, precision-strike loitering munitions, and electronic warfare) and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy (satellite-communications hardware, laser weapon systems, and cyber/mission-systems services). Revenue flows primarily from U.S. DoD contracts across the Army, Marine Corps, Special Operations Command, and other branches, supplemented by foreign military sales to allied governments and direct commercial sales; a Strategic Advisory Group of retired general and flag officers and a dedicated government-relations team support that pipeline. AeroVironment protects its technology through 353 issued U.S. patents plus 103 pending applications as of April 30, 2025, before adding roughly 150 more issued patents through the BlueHalo deal, and manufactures at ISO 9001:2015- and AS9100D-certified U.S. facilities. Named competitors span Anduril Industries, Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, Boeing, and Elbit Systems, several of which the filing says have far greater financial and manufacturing scale.
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AeroVironment's government-contract concentration carries a funding-structure risk the 10-K flags directly: U.S. government contracts are generally not fully funded at inception and can go undefinitized at the start of performance, which the filing says could prevent the company from realizing its full contract backlog. That structural risk arrived alongside a policy shift -- in January 2025 the administration created the Department of Government Efficiency to review federal spending, and in February 2025 directed it to scrutinize Pentagon spending for waste and fraud, aiming scrutiny at AeroVironment's largest customer category. Meanwhile, its international revenue is increasingly concentrated in an active war zone, tying results to the continuation of a single foreign conflict rather than a diversified allied customer base.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 2, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-08Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 'US Army to Spend $400 Million on AeroVironment Anti-Drone Lasers' - Bloomberg News — benzinga Aug 7, 2026 positive
- NEWS AeroVironment Partners With Applied Intuition Over Uncrewed Teaming Capabilities For U.S. Military, Allies — benzinga Jul 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Teledyne FLIR Defense Receives Order From AeroVironment To Deliver Argus XL Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System Platform As — benzinga Jul 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Teledyne FLIR Defense Receives Significant Order From AeroVironment To Deliver Argus XL Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System — benzinga Jul 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Here's How Much $1000 Invested In AeroVironment 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today — benzinga Jul 20, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-08-09T07:37:08Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $187.40: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $173.66. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $203.19 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $173.66. Stop-loss: $173.66.
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 42.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $226.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision-strike loitering munitions,...
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision-strike loitering munitions, counter-UAS, space/directed-energy, and cyber capabilities to the U.S. military and allied governments, organized since its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo into Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segments. The company derived approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue from the U.S. government, including 35% from the DoD, with 52% from international sales.