AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $185.78: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike (Switchblade loitering munitions), counter-UAS, and space/cyber/directed energy capabilities across two segments, including BlueHalo acquired May 2025. U.S. government sales... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $185.78: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerDoD35%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 35% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-23Item 5.02HIGHCFO Kevin McDonnell notified the Company of his decision to retire effective July 31, 2026. No successor named; will remain as CFO until a new CFO is hired or the Retirement Date. Company conducting search.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified the Company of his intention to retire effective upon appointment of his successor. Company conducting search for new principal operating officer. No successor named at time of filing.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMRobert Smith appointed as EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell who retired. Truesdell to remain in advisory/consulting role through April 30, 2026. Clean handoff with named successor.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMSean Woodward appointed as EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell who retires July 31, 2026. McDonnell to continue in non-officer capacity through Retirement Date. Clean handoff with named successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $185.78: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $173.85. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $278.89 (+49.2% upside). Prior stop was $173.85. Stop-loss: $173.85.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 45.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $310.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike (Switchblade loitering...
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike (Switchblade loitering munitions), counter-UAS, and space/cyber/directed energy capabilities across two segments, including BlueHalo acquired May 2025. U.S. government sales represented approximately 75% of revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.