AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $176.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
AeroVironment is a defense technology company delivering autonomous systems (Switchblade, Raven, JUMP), counter-UAS, space, cyber, and directed energy solutions; it acquired BlueHalo on May 1, 2025. U.S. government revenue (including FMS) was approximately 75% of fiscal 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $176.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-09Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS AeroVironment Plans To Invest $15M To Expand Advanced Production Capabilities In Greene County, Ohio, Near Dayton — benzinga Jun 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Kratos Defense (KTOS) Stock Is Trending As Trump Administration Eyes Equity Stakes In US Drone Makers — benzinga May 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Is AeroVironment Stock Surging On Thursday? — benzinga May 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Agilent, Unusual Machines, Best Buy And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Thursday — benzinga May 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Trump's Drone Dominance Play: US Government May Soon Own Stakes In These Stocks — benzinga May 28, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-09T22:11:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- HIGHCustomerUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Army20%10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 20% of our revenue from the U.S. Army pursuant to orders placed under contract by the U.S. Army on behalf of itself as well as for several other organizations within the U.S. DoD.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-23Item 5.02HIGHCFO Kevin McDonnell notified AeroVironment of decision to retire effective July 31, 2026. No successor named at time of filing; Company to search for replacement.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved Non-Qualified Deferred Compensation Plan for key employees and non-employee directors, effective March 1, 2026. Compensatory arrangement only.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified Company of intent to retire upon appointment of successor. Truesdell to continue as principal operating officer until successor in place; no successor named at time of filing.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMRobert Smith appointed EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell who is retiring. Truesdell to remain in advisory role through April 30, 2026, then consulting role.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMSean Woodward appointed EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell who remains CFO through April 30, 2026 then transitions to non-officer role through retirement date of July 31, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $176.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $164.30. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $278.89 (+57.9% upside). Prior stop was $164.30. Stop-loss: $164.30.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Ukraine (18.0%); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 45.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $310.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology company delivering autonomous systems (Switchblade, Raven, JUMP), counter-UAS,...
AeroVironment is a defense technology company delivering autonomous systems (Switchblade, Raven, JUMP), counter-UAS, space, cyber, and directed energy solutions; it acquired BlueHalo on May 1, 2025. U.S. government revenue (including FMS) was approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue, with Ukraine at 18% and the U.S. Army at 20%. The company serves U.S. DoD branches, intelligence agencies, and allied governments worldwide.