A healthcare services company with 56% revenue growth leadership in its peer group and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but operating margin has compressed by 11.5%, leverage stands at 33x debt-to-equity, quality falls below the minimum threshold, and only 4.3% upside remains to the analyst target — making this an unattractive setup despite the growth story.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Breach Margin Compression Leverage→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Discipline→Stable
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Astrana Health is a physician-centric, risk-bearing healthcare company operating an integrated delivery platform across three segments: Care Partners (IPAs, ACOs, and Restricted Knox-Keene health plans bearing capitated risk), Care Delivery (60+ clinics, urgent care, and an... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Astrana Health Inc.
About Astrana Health Inc.
Astrana Health coordinated value-based care for approximately 1.6 million patients through a network of more than 20,000 contracted physicians and over 60 Care Delivery locations, including primary care clinics, specialty clinics, and an acute-care hospital, as of December 31, 2025. The company derives a substantial portion of its revenue from California and, on July 1, 2025, completed its $674.9 million acquisition of Prospect Medical Holdings' businesses, adding an 11,000-provider network, a California Knox-Keene-licensed health plan, and a second acute-care hospital.
Astrana earns revenue primarily through capitation payments from HMOs and Medicare Advantage plans, under which its independent practice associations and Restricted Knox-Keene-licensed health plans accept a fixed per-member-per-month fee and assume the financial risk for medical costs above that amount, supplemented by risk-pool settlements and incentives, management fee income from its MSO subsidiaries under long-term management services agreements, and fee-for-service revenue. Because California's corporate-practice-of-medicine laws bar Astrana from directly owning physician practices, the company structures its affiliated IPAs and medical groups as physician-owned entities consolidated as variable interest entities, governed through MSAs and, in some cases, nominee-shareholder arrangements for professional corporations. Astrana's ACOs participate in CMS's ACO REACH Model and the Medicare Shared Savings Program, layering government-program risk-sharing on top of its commercial and Medicaid HMO capitation book, while its equity-method investments, ranging from 25.0% to 51.0% ownership in similarly structured healthcare entities, extend its platform beyond wholly consolidated operations.
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Astrana's business model concentrates capitated financial risk in a single state: the 10-K states the company currently derives a substantial portion of its revenues in California and is vulnerable to changes in that state, an exposure the Prospect acquisition deepened rather than diversified since Prospect's Knox-Keene health plan, MSO, and acute-care hospital all operate in California as well. Because California's corporate-practice-of-medicine laws already force Astrana to run its physician networks through consolidated variable interest entities rather than direct ownership, any state-level reimbursement, licensing, or Knox-Keene regulatory change would simultaneously affect both the legacy Astrana network and the newly acquired Prospect assets, leaving the combined company with less geographic diversification to absorb a California-specific policy shock than its post-acquisition scale might suggest.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From Astrana Health Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Astrana Health Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS BTIG Reiterates Buy on Astrana Health, Maintains $50 Price Target — benzinga Jun 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Upgrades Astrana Health to Overweight, Raises Price Target to $50 — benzinga May 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Astrana Health, Raises Price Target to $47 — benzinga May 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Astrana Health, Raises Price Target to $45 — benzinga May 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Physician Association Of California And Astrana Health Collaborate To Help Independent Primary Care Physicians Remain In — benzinga May 11, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'We currently derive a substantial portion of our revenues in California and are vulnerable to changes in that state.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Medical Officer Dinesh Kumar, M.D. notified the company on May 7, 2026 of his intent to resign effective June 1, 2026; no successor named in this filing, no dispute cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-10Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Equity Incentive Plan at the June 10, 2026 annual meeting, adding 1,000,000 reserved shares and extending its term to March 24, 2036; routine plan amendment.SEC filing →
- 2026-07-01Item 5.02LOWChief Accounting Officer Glenn Sobotka agreed to retire effective August 7, 2026; John Vong, an internal SVP-Accounting hire, was named to succeed him as principal accounting officer on the same date, a clean handoff with no dispute cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $45.73. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $50.57 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $45.73. Stop-loss: $45.73.
Target reached (-16.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0).
Astrana Health Inc. trades at a P/E of 80.6 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover ASTH with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Astrana Health Inc. do?Astrana Health is a physician-centric, risk-bearing healthcare company operating an integrated delivery platform across...
Astrana Health is a physician-centric, risk-bearing healthcare company operating an integrated delivery platform across three segments: Care Partners (IPAs, ACOs, and Restricted Knox-Keene health plans bearing capitated risk), Care Delivery (60+ clinics, urgent care, and an acute-care hospital), and Care Enablement (MSO/technology services). The company coordinates value-based care for approximately 1.6 million patients through more than 20,000 contracted physicians, derives a substantial portion of its revenue from California, and completed its $674.9 million acquisition of Prospect Medical H