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ASTHAstrana Health Inc.Sell6.0·$48.79-2.05%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A healthcare services company with 56% revenue growth leadership in its peer group and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but operating margin has compressed by 11.5%, leverage stands at 33x debt-to-equity, quality falls below the minimum threshold, and only 4.3% upside remains to the analyst target — making this an unattractive setup despite the growth story.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Breach Margin Compression LeverageStable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat DisciplineStable
  • Industry Leading Revenue GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Astrana Health is a physician-centric, risk-bearing healthcare company operating an integrated delivery platform across three segments: Care Partners (IPAs, ACOs, and Restricted Knox-Keene health plans bearing capitated risk), Care Delivery (60+ clinics, urgent care, and an... Read more

$48.79+2.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#6 of 36 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield11.80%
Stop $45.73Target $50.57(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$47.11-3.4%9 analysts
$50.57our TP
$48.79price
$47.11mean
$41
$53

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Astrana Health Inc.

About Astrana Health Inc.

Astrana Health coordinated value-based care for approximately 1.6 million patients through a network of more than 20,000 contracted physicians and over 60 Care Delivery locations, including primary care clinics, specialty clinics, and an acute-care hospital, as of December 31, 2025. The company derives a substantial portion of its revenue from California and, on July 1, 2025, completed its $674.9 million acquisition of Prospect Medical Holdings' businesses, adding an 11,000-provider network, a California Knox-Keene-licensed health plan, and a second acute-care hospital.

Astrana earns revenue primarily through capitation payments from HMOs and Medicare Advantage plans, under which its independent practice associations and Restricted Knox-Keene-licensed health plans accept a fixed per-member-per-month fee and assume the financial risk for medical costs above that amount, supplemented by risk-pool settlements and incentives, management fee income from its MSO subsidiaries under long-term management services agreements, and fee-for-service revenue. Because California's corporate-practice-of-medicine laws bar Astrana from directly owning physician practices, the company structures its affiliated IPAs and medical groups as physician-owned entities consolidated as variable interest entities, governed through MSAs and, in some cases, nominee-shareholder arrangements for professional corporations. Astrana's ACOs participate in CMS's ACO REACH Model and the Medicare Shared Savings Program, layering government-program risk-sharing on top of its commercial and Medicaid HMO capitation book, while its equity-method investments, ranging from 25.0% to 51.0% ownership in similarly structured healthcare entities, extend its platform beyond wholly consolidated operations.

Show full overview

Astrana's business model concentrates capitated financial risk in a single state: the 10-K states the company currently derives a substantial portion of its revenues in California and is vulnerable to changes in that state, an exposure the Prospect acquisition deepened rather than diversified since Prospect's Knox-Keene health plan, MSO, and acute-care hospital all operate in California as well. Because California's corporate-practice-of-medicine laws already force Astrana to run its physician networks through consolidated variable interest entities rather than direct ownership, any state-level reimbursement, licensing, or Knox-Keene regulatory change would simultaneously affect both the legacy Astrana network and the newly acquired Prospect assets, leaving the combined company with less geographic diversification to absorb a California-specific policy shock than its post-acquisition scale might suggest.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

From Astrana Health Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Astrana Health Inc.

Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-16.6% upside)
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)80.6
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA17.6
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE5.7%
Rev Growth55.6%
Beta0.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently derive a substantial portion of our revenues in California and are vulnerable to changes in that state.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Chief Medical Officer Dinesh Kumar, M.D. notified the company on May 7, 2026 of his intent to resign effective June 1, 2026; no successor named in this filing, no dispute cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-10Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Equity Incentive Plan at the June 10, 2026 annual meeting, adding 1,000,000 reserved shares and extending its term to March 24, 2036; routine plan amendment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-07-01Item 5.02LOW
    Chief Accounting Officer Glenn Sobotka agreed to retire effective August 7, 2026; John Vong, an internal SVP-Accounting hire, was named to succeed him as principal accounting officer on the same date, a clean handoff with no dispute cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.4
Operating Margin
1.2
Roe
1.9
Roa
2.4
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 952% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.6
52w Position
9.1
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.99Resistance $51.60

Price Targets

$46
$51
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASTH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $45.73. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASTH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.57 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $45.73. Stop-loss: $45.73.

What are the risks of investing in ASTH?

Target reached (-16.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0).

Is ASTH overvalued or undervalued?

Astrana Health Inc. trades at a P/E of 80.6 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASTH?

17 analysts cover ASTH with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Astrana Health Inc. do?Astrana Health is a physician-centric, risk-bearing healthcare company operating an integrated delivery platform across...

Astrana Health is a physician-centric, risk-bearing healthcare company operating an integrated delivery platform across three segments: Care Partners (IPAs, ACOs, and Restricted Knox-Keene health plans bearing capitated risk), Care Delivery (60+ clinics, urgent care, and an acute-care hospital), and Care Enablement (MSO/technology services). The company coordinates value-based care for approximately 1.6 million patients through more than 20,000 contracted physicians, derives a substantial portion of its revenue from California, and completed its $674.9 million acquisition of Prospect Medical H

Related stocks: NUTX (Nutex Health Inc.) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · TOI (The Oncology Institute, Inc.) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · SRTA (Strata Critical Medical, Inc.)
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