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ASMLASML Holding N.V. - New York ReBuy Wait5.9·$1716.89+4.30%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company operates a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 52% return on equity, and 30% net margins, but the stock is already trading above its near-term price target with an unfavorable risk/reward, making new or incremental positions unattractive at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Premium Quality Wide MoatStable
  • Expensive Valuation Above TargetImproving
  • Strong Technical Breakout MomentumStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re (ASML) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Wait for pullback to $1672.10. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1716.89. Engine's entry $1672.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Expensive valuation.

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet... Read more

$1716.89+12.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#13 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.33%
IncomeYield0.54%(5y avg 0.83%)Payout29.72%sustainable
Entry $1672.10(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $1576.99Target $1934.37(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$2149.30+25.2%16 analysts
$1934.37our TP
$1716.89price
$2149.30mean
$900
$2869

Wait for pullback to $1672.10. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1716.89. Engine's entry $1672.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.49, quality 8.4/10, growth 7.8/10). Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 14, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)57.1
P/E (Fwd)27.4
Mkt Cap$632.3B
EV/EBITDA2661.0
Profit Mgn30.1%
ROE53.9%
Rev Growth21.3%
Beta1.36
Dividend0.54%
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.24bearish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$920-46.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Pe
2.1
Forward Pe
4.5
Peg Ratio
5.0
Analyst Target
6.0
Forward P/E: 27.4xPEG: 1.49
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1619.34Resistance $1896.35

Price Targets

$1577
$1672
$1934
A.Upside+12.7%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2%
Max %4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-14 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASML stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $1672.10. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1716.89. Engine's entry $1672.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.49, quality 8.4/10, growth 7.8/10). Target $1934.37 (+12.7%), stop $1576.99 (−8.9%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASML stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1934.37 (+12.7% upside). Target $1934.37 (+12.7%), stop $1576.99 (−8.9%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $1576.99.

What are the risks of investing in ASML?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is ASML overvalued or undervalued?

ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re trades at a P/E of 57.1 (forward 27.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ASML?

42 analysts cover ASML with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $2149.

What does ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re do?ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and...

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

Related stocks: LRCX (Lam Research Corporation) · AMAT (Applied Materials, Inc.) · KLAC (KLA Corporation) · SNDK (Sandisk Corporation) · TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur)
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