Value
5.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.3 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.1 |
| PEG | 8.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.82
ASML · Why this verdict
Why ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re (ASML) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ASML combines elite quality (66% return on equity, 34% margins, wide moat) with 55% YoY growth and a 24.9x forward P/E, trading 23.1% below its $1,927 analyst target after a pullback within a still-rising long-term trend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ASML is growing strongly at 55% YoY, with both revenue growth and earnings growth scoring 10/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and semiconductor equipment demand is cyclical and tied to chipmaker capital spending, so 55% growth is unlikely to persist at this rate. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 24.9x with a PEG of 0.84, which is reasonable against 55% growth, though the value score is only 4.7/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 30x as earnings growth continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 24.9x forward multiple is a premium for a cyclical equipment maker and leaves little cushion if growth slows or semiconductor spending pauses. | ||
ASML earns an excellent 66% return on equity with strong 34% margins, a wide economic moat (score 9.0) and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Return on equity should stay above 40% and margins above 28% as volumes scale. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality carries a warning, with free cash flow at only 77% of net income, so reported profitability is not fully converting to cash. | ||
Price is 23.1% below the $1,927.39 analyst target while downside to the stop is 7.9%, a reward-to-risk of 2.91. Estimated upside | The analyst target should hold near $1,927 or higher while price recovers from $1,565.90. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst upside of 37% before haircut depends on continued growth, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.37 shows meaningful hedging or bearish positioning. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 5.9% over 30 days, so the move is a pullback in an uptrend with rising on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover above 4.5/10 and price should hold above the $1,398.53 stop. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum is 4.3/10 with a MACD score of 0 and the price is below its 200-day average, so the pullback could deepen into confirmed weakness. | ||
ASML is growing strongly at 55% YoY, with both revenue growth and earnings growth scoring 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and semiconductor equipment demand is cyclical and tied to chipmaker capital spending, so 55% growth is unlikely to persist at this rate.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 24.9x with a PEG of 0.84, which is reasonable against 55% growth, though the value score is only 4.7/10.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 30x as earnings growth continues.
CounterA 24.9x forward multiple is a premium for a cyclical equipment maker and leaves little cushion if growth slows or semiconductor spending pauses.
ASML earns an excellent 66% return on equity with strong 34% margins, a wide economic moat (score 9.0) and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity should stay above 40% and margins above 28% as volumes scale.
CounterEarnings quality carries a warning, with free cash flow at only 77% of net income, so reported profitability is not fully converting to cash.
Price is 23.1% below the $1,927.39 analyst target while downside to the stop is 7.9%, a reward-to-risk of 2.91.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- The analyst target should hold near $1,927 or higher while price recovers from $1,565.90.
CounterAnalyst upside of 37% before haircut depends on continued growth, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.37 shows meaningful hedging or bearish positioning.
The stock is below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 5.9% over 30 days, so the move is a pullback in an uptrend with rising on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5/10 and price should hold above the $1,398.53 stop.
CounterMomentum is 4.3/10 with a MACD score of 0 and the price is below its 200-day average, so the pullback could deepen into confirmed weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 66%
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 77% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 55% YoY
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.8 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.4 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 5.6 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.82, quality 8.5/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.61
Upside
+29.4%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.5) with weak momentum (1.8)
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.5 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 3.61 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.5, and Sentiment at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Insider at 5.0, and Value at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.61 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Yoy Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from current 55%.
- P2Elite Returns Wide Moat
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 35% from current 66%.
- P3Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 32x from current 24.9x.
- P4Analyst Upside Favorable Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $1,650 from current $1,927.39.
- P5Pullback Within Rising Trend
Trip ifShare price falls below $1,398.53 from current $1,565.90.