Value
2.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.0 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 36.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.76
- ▸Expensive valuation
ASML · Why this verdict
Why ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re (ASML) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business earns a return on equity of 52%, sustains net margins of 30%, and carries a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — characteristics the quality assessment describes as a wide economic moat and compounder quality combining strong returns with growth. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 28% and return on equity stays above 40% over the next four quarters, confirming the moat is not eroding. | →Stable |
| CounterEven franchises with wide competitive advantages face cyclical equipment-order swings; a demand slowdown could compress both margins and returns without invalidating the long-term structural position. | ||
At a forward P/E of 39.3x and a PEG of 2.79, the stock screens expensive, and with the current price already above the near-term resistance target, potential downside exceeds potential upside — an unfavorable setup for new capital. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses toward 28x as earnings growth accelerates or the stock consolidates, restoring a more attractive entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterRich multiples can persist for compounders with pricing power and secular demand; compression may not occur even if near-term growth moderates, provided the franchise remains intact. | ||
The stock is in a breakout configuration — above all key moving averages, RSI near 68, MACD bullish, and rising on-balance volume confirming broad institutional participation — meeting the momentum gate with a score of 7.7. Engine gate (passed) | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and RSI stays above 55 over the next quarter without a failed breakout reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterWith RSI near 68 and implied volatility at 71%, the stock is approaching overbought territory; a mean-reversion pullback could be sharp given the extended premium and high options pricing. | ||
Three of the last four quarters delivered positive surprises — including the most recent beat of approximately 8% and prior beats of +12% and +2% — suggesting a pattern of delivering above consensus, with the next report due in approximately 29 days. Earnings | The upcoming earnings report delivers another positive surprise, extending the three-of-four beat pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe miss in the January 2026 quarter at -2.7% demonstrates the pattern is not guaranteed; a second consecutive miss around the upcoming report would materially undermine confidence in guidance reliability. | ||
The business earns a return on equity of 52%, sustains net margins of 30%, and carries a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — characteristics the quality assessment describes as a wide economic moat and compounder quality combining strong returns with growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 28% and return on equity stays above 40% over the next four quarters, confirming the moat is not eroding.
CounterEven franchises with wide competitive advantages face cyclical equipment-order swings; a demand slowdown could compress both margins and returns without invalidating the long-term structural position.
At a forward P/E of 39.3x and a PEG of 2.79, the stock screens expensive, and with the current price already above the near-term resistance target, potential downside exceeds potential upside — an unfavorable setup for new capital.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses toward 28x as earnings growth accelerates or the stock consolidates, restoring a more attractive entry geometry.
CounterRich multiples can persist for compounders with pricing power and secular demand; compression may not occur even if near-term growth moderates, provided the franchise remains intact.
The stock is in a breakout configuration — above all key moving averages, RSI near 68, MACD bullish, and rising on-balance volume confirming broad institutional participation — meeting the momentum gate with a score of 7.7.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and RSI stays above 55 over the next quarter without a failed breakout reversal.
CounterWith RSI near 68 and implied volatility at 71%, the stock is approaching overbought territory; a mean-reversion pullback could be sharp given the extended premium and high options pricing.
Three of the last four quarters delivered positive surprises — including the most recent beat of approximately 8% and prior beats of +12% and +2% — suggesting a pattern of delivering above consensus, with the next report due in approximately 29 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The upcoming earnings report delivers another positive surprise, extending the three-of-four beat pattern.
CounterThe miss in the January 2026 quarter at -2.7% demonstrates the pattern is not guaranteed; a second consecutive miss around the upcoming report would materially undermine confidence in guidance reliability.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company operates a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 52% return on equity, and 30% net margins, but the stock is already trading above its near-term price target with an unfavorable risk/reward, making new or incremental positions unattractive at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 52%
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=2)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.2 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 80%
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Dividend: 50.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.97
Upside
-10.7%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.4) with weak momentum (3.3)
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.39>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.97 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.4, Sentiment at 6.9, and Technical at 6.9; the weakest are Value at 2.4, Momentum at 3.3, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Premium Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Expensive Valuation Above Target
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 25x, confirming the valuation premium has closed and the expensive-valuation concern is resolved.
- P3Strong Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and RSI drops below 45 for 30 consecutive days.
- P4Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.