The partnership offers an inexpensive forward multiple of 8.6 times and three consecutive recent earnings beats averaging 16% above consensus, but revenue is declining 4% year over year, momentum has failed its minimum threshold, volume is in distribution, and nearly 90% of sales are tied to domestic electric utilities — making this a yield-income story whose upside is capped at 7.1% even in the bull case.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Multiple→Stable
- Recent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Customer Concentration Structural Headwind→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P (ARLP) Stock Analysis
Energy · Thermal Coal
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $24.74 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: domestic electric utilities (89.2%); Thin upside margin: 6.6%.
Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The partnership sells coal primarily to domestic electric utilities... Read more
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $24.74 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: domestic electric utilities (89.2%); Thin upside margin: 6.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Alliance Resource Partners, L.P
About Alliance Resource Partners, L.P
Alliance Resource Partners sold 33.0 million tons of coal in 2025 — 26.1 million from Illinois Basin and 7.1 million from Appalachia — while producing royalty income from approximately 70,000 net royalty acres of oil and gas mineral interests in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. The partnership operated seven underground mining complexes across six states and employed 2,895 people in mining operations at year-end 2025.
Coal is sold primarily to domestic electric utilities under long-term supply agreements, with 89.2% of 2025 tons sold going to domestic power customers and 8.6% exported through brokered transactions to Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. About 86.5% of 2025 coal sales tonnage was committed under long-term contracts with term expirations from 2026 to 2030. Louisville Gas and Electric Company and American Electric Power Company Inc. each accounted for more than 10% of total 2025 revenue, making them the two largest disclosed customers. Prices under many contracts are subject to reopener provisions that can reset based on market indices, creating partial exposure to spot coal prices even within multi-year agreements. The oil and gas mineral segment generates royalty income without drilling cost obligations, with 2025 production of 1,628 thousand barrels of oil, 6,674 million cubic feet of gas, and 908 thousand barrels of NGLs. Alliance Resource Properties owns substantially all coal mineral reserves and leases them to the mining complexes at fixed per-ton royalties.
Show full overview
The partnership carries no hedging arrangements against commodity price movements, leaving both coal revenue and oil and gas royalty income fully exposed to spot prices. Competition from natural gas, nuclear, and renewables could reduce domestic power demand for coal below contracted volumes. Contract termination rights triggered by force majeure or regulatory changes rendering coal inconsistent with new environmental standards represent paths by which utility counterparties could reduce offtake commitments even within multi-year agreements, further compounded by price-reopener provisions that may lower contracted prices upon renegotiation.
See also: Energy · Thermal Coal
From Alliance Resource Partners, L.P's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Alliance Resource Partners, L.P
Latest news
- NEWS Earnings Preview: ARLP to Report Financial Results Pre-market on April 27 - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
- NEWS ARLP Leads Oversold Stocks in Materials Sector with RSI of 27 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Alliance Resource is the most oversold energy stock as Q1 earnings roll on (XLE:NYSEARCA) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha negative
- NEWS Alliance Resource is the most oversold energy stock as Q1 earnings roll on - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Why is a Congresswoman Buying Coal Stock? The ARLP Trade Unpacked. - Kavout | AI — Kavout | AI neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerdomestic electric utilities89%10-K Item 1: '89.2% of our 2025 tons sold were purchased by domestic electric utilities'
- LOWCustomerLouisville Gas and Electric Company10-K Item 1: 'we derived more than 10% of our total revenue from each of Louisville Gas and Electric Company and American Electric Power Company Inc.'
- LOWCustomerAmerican Electric Power Company Inc.10-K Item 1: 'we derived more than 10% of our total revenue from each of Louisville Gas and Electric Company and American Electric Power Company Inc.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $24.74 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: domestic electric utilities (89.2%); Thin upside margin: 6.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $26.35 (+7.5%), stop $23.98 (−2.3%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.35 (+6.6% upside). Target $26.35 (+7.5%), stop $23.98 (−2.3%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $23.98.
Concentration risk — Customer: domestic electric utilities (89.2%); Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.6), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.09% of cap).
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
9 analysts cover ARLP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $31.
What does Alliance Resource Partners, L.P do?Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining...
Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The partnership sells coal primarily to domestic electric utilities (89.2% of 2025 tons sold) under long-term contracts and earns oil and gas royalty income from approximately 70,000 net royalty acres in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins.