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Alliance Resource Partners, L.P (ARLP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Thermal Coal

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.40 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining complexes in the Illinois Basin and Appalachia, plus oil & gas mineral royalty interests in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. In 2025 it sold 33.0... Read more

$25.40+1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#1 of 4 Thermal Coal
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.06%
IncomeYield9.45%(5y avg 8.67%)Payout131.58%at-risk
Stop $24.16Target $25.78(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$30.33+19.4%3 analysts
$25.78our TP
$25.40price
$30.33mean
$33

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.40 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Alliance Resource Partners, L.P

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA5.7
Profit Mgn11.3%
ROE14.0%
Rev Growth-4.5%
Beta0.24
Dividend9.45%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerLouisville Gas and Electric Company
    10-K Item 1: 'we derived more than 10% of our total revenue from each of Louisville Gas and Electric Company and American Electric Power Company Inc.'
  • LOWCustomerAmerican Electric Power Company Inc.
    10-K Item 1: 'we derived more than 10% of our total revenue from each of Louisville Gas and Electric Company and American Electric Power Company Inc.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.85Resistance $26.23

Price Targets

$24
$26
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARLP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.40 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.16. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARLP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.78 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $24.16. Stop-loss: $24.16.

What are the risks of investing in ARLP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ARLP overvalued or undervalued?

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARLP?

9 analysts cover ARLP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Alliance Resource Partners, L.P do?Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining...

Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining complexes in the Illinois Basin and Appalachia, plus oil & gas mineral royalty interests in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. In 2025 it sold 33.0 million tons of coal, 89.2% to domestic electric utilities, primarily under long-term supply agreements (86.5% of tonnage under multi-year contracts).

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