Alliance Resource Partners has a perfect 4-quarter beat streak and a forward P/E of 8.8x, but price is within 2.9% of the analyst target, RSI is 77, customers are 89% utilities and the high yield carries a safety warning.
Thesis pillars
- Yield Trap Warning↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Cheap Valuation Solid Quality↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P (ARLP) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Energy · Thermal Coal
Wait for pullback to $24.67. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $25.18. Engine's entry $24.67 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: domestic electric utilities (89.2%); Thin upside margin: 9.1%.
Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The partnership sells coal primarily to domestic electric utilities... Read more
Wait for pullback to $24.67. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $25.18. Engine's entry $24.67 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: domestic electric utilities (89.2%); Thin upside margin: 9.1%. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Alliance Resource Partners, L.P
About Alliance Resource Partners, L.P
Alliance Resource Partners sold 33.0 million tons of coal in 2025 — 26.1 million from Illinois Basin and 7.1 million from Appalachia — while producing royalty income from approximately 70,000 net royalty acres of oil and gas mineral interests in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. The partnership operated seven underground mining complexes across six states and employed 2,895 people in mining operations at year-end 2025.
Coal is sold primarily to domestic electric utilities under long-term supply agreements, with 89.2% of 2025 tons sold going to domestic power customers and 8.6% exported through brokered transactions to Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. About 86.5% of 2025 coal sales tonnage was committed under long-term contracts with term expirations from 2026 to 2030. Louisville Gas and Electric Company and American Electric Power Company Inc. each accounted for more than 10% of total 2025 revenue, making them the two largest disclosed customers. Prices under many contracts are subject to reopener provisions that can reset based on market indices, creating partial exposure to spot coal prices even within multi-year agreements. The oil and gas mineral segment generates royalty income without drilling cost obligations, with 2025 production of 1,628 thousand barrels of oil, 6,674 million cubic feet of gas, and 908 thousand barrels of NGLs. Alliance Resource Properties owns substantially all coal mineral reserves and leases them to the mining complexes at fixed per-ton royalties.
Show full overview
The partnership carries no hedging arrangements against commodity price movements, leaving both coal revenue and oil and gas royalty income fully exposed to spot prices. Competition from natural gas, nuclear, and renewables could reduce domestic power demand for coal below contracted volumes. Contract termination rights triggered by force majeure or regulatory changes rendering coal inconsistent with new environmental standards represent paths by which utility counterparties could reduce offtake commitments even within multi-year agreements, further compounded by price-reopener provisions that may lower contracted prices upon renegotiation.
See also: Energy · Thermal Coal
From Alliance Resource Partners, L.P's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Alliance Resource Partners, L.P
Latest news
- NEWS What Alliance Resource Partners Stock Earnings Strength Means For Shareholders - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Alliance Resource(ARLP) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 31, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Alliance Resource: The Surprise Quarter Should Push The Stock Higher (NASDAQ:ARLP) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Stock Drifts As Q3 Earnings Fuel Yield Debate - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Are Investors Undervaluing Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Right Now? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerdomestic electric utilities89%10-K Item 1: '89.2% of our 2025 tons sold were purchased by domestic electric utilities'
- LOWCustomerLouisville Gas and Electric Company10-K Item 1: 'we derived more than 10% of our total revenue from each of Louisville Gas and Electric Company and American Electric Power Company Inc.'
- LOWCustomerAmerican Electric Power Company Inc.10-K Item 1: 'we derived more than 10% of our total revenue from each of Louisville Gas and Electric Company and American Electric Power Company Inc.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $24.67. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $25.18. Engine's entry $24.67 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: domestic electric utilities (89.2%); Thin upside margin: 9.1%. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $27.48 (+9.1%), stop $23.85 (−5.6%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.48 (+9.1% upside). Target $27.48 (+9.1%), stop $23.85 (−5.6%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $23.85.
Concentration risk — Customer: domestic electric utilities (89.2%); Thin upside margin: 9.1%.
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
9 analysts rate ARLP, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $32.
What does Alliance Resource Partners, L.P do?Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining...
Alliance Resource Partners is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The partnership sells coal primarily to domestic electric utilities (89.2% of 2025 tons sold) under long-term contracts and earns oil and gas royalty income from approximately 70,000 net royalty acres in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins.