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Alliance Resource Partners, L.P (ARLP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Thermal Coal

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Alliance Resource Partners is the second largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. It also holds ~70,000 net royalty acres of oil and gas mineral... Read more

$26.64+4.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#2 of 4 Thermal Coal
Stop $25.21Target $27.83(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$30.33+13.9%3 analysts
$27.83our TP
$26.64price
$30.33mean
$33

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.0
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA6.0
Profit Mgn11.3%
ROE14.0%
Rev Growth-4.5%
Beta
Dividend9.00%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C5.57bearish
IV60%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomera few customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend upon a few customers for significant portions of our revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.42Resistance $28.40

Price Targets

$25
$28
A.Upside+4.5%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARLP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $25.21. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARLP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.83 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $25.21. Stop-loss: $25.21.

What are the risks of investing in ARLP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is ARLP overvalued or undervalued?

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARLP?

9 analysts cover ARLP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Alliance Resource Partners, L.P do?Alliance Resource Partners is the second largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining...

Alliance Resource Partners is the second largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., operating seven underground mining complexes across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. It also holds ~70,000 net royalty acres of oil and gas mineral interests primarily in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. Approximately 84.6% of 2025 coal tonnage sold under contracts with terms greater than one year.

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