BTU is cheap at a 7.9x forward P/E with 21.3% upside to the analyst target, but repeated earnings misses, cash burn, a confirmed downtrend and 51% seaborne concentration keep the stock in exit territory.
Thesis pillars
- Repeated Earnings Misses→Stable
- Cash Burning Low Quality→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Energy · Thermal Coal
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.02: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Peabody Energy operates 16 active coal mines in the U.S. and Australia through four segments — Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal — producing thermal coal for electricity generators and metallurgical coal for steelmakers. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.02: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 14, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Peabody Energy Corporation
About Peabody Energy Corporation
Peabody Energy's 16 active mines in the United States and Australia produced 120.3 million tons of coal in 2025, with seaborne operations (Seaborne Thermal and Seaborne Metallurgical segments) representing approximately 51% of coal supply agreement revenues and U.S. Thermal segments (Powder River Basin and Other U.S. Thermal) accounting for the remaining 49%. Metallurgical coal sold to global steelmakers contributed approximately 27% of 2025 revenues, and total sales backlog reached 238 million tons as of January 1, 2026.
Long-term coal supply agreements covered approximately 87% of worldwide sales volumes in 2025, with the five largest customers generating 25% of revenues under 19 contracts expiring between 2025 and 2028; the largest single customer contributed roughly $291 million (about 8% of revenues) with contracts expiring in 2026. Australian export operations ship through five east coast terminals — including Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal in Queensland and Port Kembla and Newcastle in New South Wales — under take-or-pay arrangements totaling $1.0 billion with terms up to 19 years, converting variable transportation costs into fixed obligations. Principal U.S. thermal competitors include Alliance Resource Partners, Core Natural Resources, and American Consolidated Natural Resources; major international seaborne rivals include Glencore, BHP, and Whitehaven Coal Limited.
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Take-or-pay contractual obligations represent a fixed-cost floor that could weigh on profitability if production is curtailed: the $1.0 billion in port and rail commitments, predominantly in Australia, require minimum payments regardless of shipment volumes. Compounding this exposure, the surety transaction support agreement backing $997.2 million in outstanding surety bonds expires on December 31, 2026; the 10-K states that failure to maintain adequate bonding could invalidate mining permits and halt operations, making the 2026 surety renewal a near-term structural milestone for the company's operating licenses.
See also: Energy · Thermal Coal
From Peabody Energy Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Peabody Energy Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Peabody Energy Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Peabody Board Declares Quarterly Dividend — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Peabody Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026
- NEWS Peabody Energy Q3 EPS $(0.27) Misses $(0.07) Estimate, Sales $1.096B Beat $1.026B Estimate — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Top 3 Energy Stocks Which Could Rescue Your Portfolio In Q4 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicseaborne (international) markets51%10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from Peabody's Seaborne Thermal and Seaborne Metallurgical reportable segments represented approximately 51%...of the Company's total revenue from coal supply agreements'
- MEDIUMCustomerfive largest customers25%10-K Item 1A: '25% of the Company's revenue was derived from coal supply agreements with its five largest customers'
- MEDIUMCommoditymetallurgical coal27%10-K Item 1A: 'metallurgical coal for the global steel industry, which accounted for approximately 27% and 25% of its revenue in 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOWDirector Joe W. Laymon resigned from the Board effective May 20, 2026, for personal health reasons, vacating Compensation Committee and Nominating/Corporate Governance Committee roles. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Peabody Energy Corporation 2026 Incentive Plan at the 2026 Annual Meeting on May 7, 2026; plan took effect immediately upon approval. No executive departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.02: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 14, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $15.83. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $26.90 (+58.0% upside). Prior stop was $15.83. Stop-loss: $15.83.
Concentration risk — Geographic: seaborne (international) markets (51.0%); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).
Peabody Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts rate BTU, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $31.
What does Peabody Energy Corporation do?Peabody Energy operates 16 active coal mines in the U.S. and Australia through four segments — Seaborne Thermal,...
Peabody Energy operates 16 active coal mines in the U.S. and Australia through four segments — Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal — producing thermal coal for electricity generators and metallurgical coal for steelmakers. The company produced 120.3 million tons in 2025 and employs approximately 5,400 people.