Arlo offers a rare combination of 26% revenue growth and a forward multiple below 14 times, backed by four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 25% above consensus and free cash flow exceeding twice reported net income; sole-source suppliers and exclusive Vietnam manufacturing create single-point-of-failure exposure, and 12% short interest keeps sizing modest while a technical recovery plays out.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Growth At Value Price→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam manufacturing.
Arlo Technologies sells smart security cameras, doorbells, and home security systems alongside subscription services including Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security, and Arlo Safe. Revenue comes from hardware sold through retail, carrier, and distributor channels plus recurring... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam manufacturing. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Arlo Technologies, Inc.
About Arlo Technologies, Inc.
Arlo Technologies exited fiscal 2025 with a $46.3 million order backlog — expected to convert to revenue over the following six months — across five hardware product lines and four subscription tiers. Verisure, the exclusive European distributor under a supply agreement extended through November 2029, accounted for 32% of total 2025 revenue. The company's 186-person R&D team operated from offices in North America, Ireland, and Asia.
Arlo earns hardware revenue through a multi-channel network including retailers Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, Sam's Club, and Home Depot; wireless carriers AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon; and security solution providers including Verisure. Recurring subscription revenue comes from Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security, and Arlo Safe tiers. Manufacturing is fully outsourced to four ODMs — Foxconn Cloud Network Technology Singapore, Pegatron Corporation, Alpha Networks, and Chicony Electronics — with assembly concentrated primarily in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. No long-term contracts are in place with these manufacturers, making capacity arrangements subject to periodic renegotiation. Key components including lens, lens-sensors, passive infrared sensors, and custom batteries are sourced from sole-source suppliers, each customized to Arlo specifications. The company competes against Amazon (Ring and Blink), Google (Nest), ADT, and telecom providers AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast.
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Component sole-sourcing shapes the supply risk profile: customized lenses, passive infrared sensors, and batteries optimized for power conservation come from sole suppliers, meaning a quality failure or supply disruption at one vendor has no immediate alternative. The 10-K warns that obtaining alternative sources for these components 'could be difficult, costly, and time consuming.' Compounding this, substantially all manufacturing is concentrated primarily in Vietnam; tightening Vietnamese labor markets or regional disruptions may impact Arlo's cost structure and supply continuity with no readily available alternative facility.
See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
From Arlo Technologies, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Arlo Technologies, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Will Arlo Technologies (ARLO) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Will Arlo Technologies (ARLO) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Arlo Technologies Inc (ARLO) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Arlo acquires Aloe Care Health to expand into aging-in-place services - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Arlo Technologies to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerVerisure32%10-K Item 1: '32% of our total revenue was derived from Verisure'
- HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'some of which are obtained from sole source suppliers'
- HIGHSupplierVietnam manufacturing10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our manufacturing and assembly occurs in the Asia Pacific region, primarily in Vietnam'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam manufacturing. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.35. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $18.27 (+37.6% upside). Prior stop was $12.35. Stop-loss: $12.35.
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam manufacturing; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).
Arlo Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 48.1 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover ARLO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.
What does Arlo Technologies, Inc. do?Arlo Technologies sells smart security cameras, doorbells, and home security systems alongside subscription services...
Arlo Technologies sells smart security cameras, doorbells, and home security systems alongside subscription services including Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security, and Arlo Safe. Revenue comes from hardware sold through retail, carrier, and distributor channels plus recurring subscription fees; Verisure accounted for 32% of 2025 total revenue as the exclusive European distributor.