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Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam.

Arlo Technologies makes smart home security cameras, doorbells, floodlight cameras, and home security systems globally, with a cloud-based SaaS platform (Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security, Arlo Safe subscriptions). Revenue comes from device sales and recurring subscriptions. All... Read more

$14.12+29.6% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
Stop $13.11Target $18.27(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$21.50+52.3%4 analysts
$18.27our TP
$14.12price
$21.50mean
$24

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 30%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers
Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)100.1
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA134.0
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth16.2%
Beta1.71
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV124%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Many of the components used in our products are specifically designed for use in our products, some of which are obtained from sole source suppliers.'
  • HIGHGeographicVietnam
    10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our manufacturing and assembly occurs in the Asia Pacific region, primarily in Vietnam'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.7
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
3.2
Growth Rank
8.3
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.77Resistance $15.44

Price Targets

$13
$18
A.Upside+29.4%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARLO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $13.11. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the ARLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.27 (+29.6% upside). Prior stop was $13.11. Stop-loss: $13.11.

What are the risks of investing in ARLO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5.

Is ARLO overvalued or undervalued?

Arlo Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 100.1 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARLO?

10 analysts cover ARLO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Arlo Technologies, Inc. do?Arlo Technologies makes smart home security cameras, doorbells, floodlight cameras, and home security systems globally,...

Arlo Technologies makes smart home security cameras, doorbells, floodlight cameras, and home security systems globally, with a cloud-based SaaS platform (Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security, Arlo Safe subscriptions). Revenue comes from device sales and recurring subscriptions. All manufacturing is outsourced to a limited number of ODMs primarily in Vietnam.

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