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Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.78: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Arlo Technologies provides smart home and business security services combining cloud-based AI analytics with cameras, doorbells, and security systems sold through retail, wireless carriers, and security providers. Revenue comes from hardware sales and subscription services (Arlo... Read more

$12.78+44.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.53%
Stop $11.89Target $18.49(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$21.75+70.2%4 analysts
$18.49our TP
$12.78price
$21.75mean
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.78: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.8Qual5.7Grw9.6Mom3.2Sent8.4Ins3.0Peer5.3Tech6.1Risk2.76.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Arlo Technologies, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing
Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.3
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA58.9
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE23.3%
Rev Growth26.3%
Beta1.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.24bullish
IV79%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerVerisure32%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, 32% of our total revenue was derived from Verisure.'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing
    10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our manufacturing and assembly occurs in the Asia Pacific region, primarily in Vietnam'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Implied Vol
0.2
Short Interest
4.0
Beta
4.7
Put Call
10.0
High IV: 79%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.0
Obv
6.4
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.13Resistance $16.89

Price Targets

$12
$18
A.Upside+44.7%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARLO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.78: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $11.89. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.49 (+44.7% upside). Prior stop was $11.89. Stop-loss: $11.89.

What are the risks of investing in ARLO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia Pacific (Vietnam) manufacturing; Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0).

Is ARLO overvalued or undervalued?

Arlo Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 46.3 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARLO?

10 analysts cover ARLO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Arlo Technologies, Inc. do?Arlo Technologies provides smart home and business security services combining cloud-based AI analytics with cameras,...

Arlo Technologies provides smart home and business security services combining cloud-based AI analytics with cameras, doorbells, and security systems sold through retail, wireless carriers, and security providers. Revenue comes from hardware sales and subscription services (Arlo Secure, Total Security, Safe); Verisure is the exclusive European distributor representing 32% of 2025 total revenue.

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