Aris Mining combines a wide economic moat, 136% revenue growth, an attractively priced valuation with a near-zero PEG, and roughly 12.6-to-1 favorable risk/reward with 81.8% upside to the analyst target — making it a high-conviction starter position — though a recent news caution flag has moved the entry to a wait posture until near-term headline risk resolves.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Maximum Financial Health→Stable
- Compelling Asymmetry And Analyst Upside→Stable
- Exceptional Growth At Zero Peg→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Basic Materials · Gold
Wait for pullback to $15.95. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $16.04. Engine's entry $15.95 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.23× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana. It also explores for silver and copper deposits. Aris Mining Corporation was formerly known as GCM... Read more
Wait for pullback to $15.95. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $16.04. Engine's entry $15.95 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.23× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on materials cycle peak fwd=4.3x,ratio=0.23x. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Aris Mining Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS ARIS to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Aris Mining Corp (ARIS) Stock Down 4.5% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 72/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) Is Down 10.9% After Q1 EPS Surges To US$0.47 From US$0.01 - simplywall.st — simplywall.st negative
- NEWS Aris Mining stock (CA04274P1053): Quarterly update and outlook after latest production and guidance - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS positive
- NEWS Aris Mining Corp (ARIS) Stock Down 6.0% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 64/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-07-06T06:30:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $15.95. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $16.04. Engine's entry $15.95 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.23× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $31.45 (+96.1%), stop $14.83 (−8.2%), A.R:R 7.1:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $31.45 (+97.2% upside). Target $31.45 (+96.1%), stop $14.83 (−8.2%), A.R:R 7.1:1. Stop-loss: $14.83.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.23× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Elevated risk factors.
Aris Mining Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 4.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts cover ARIS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $37.
What does Aris Mining Corporation do?Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and...
Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana. It also explores for silver and copper deposits. Aris Mining Corporation was formerly known as GCM Mining Corp. and changed its name to Aris Mining Corporation in September 2022. The company was founded in 20222 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.