Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
ARIS · Why this verdict
Why Aris Mining (ARIS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business earns a wide economic moat designation, scores a maximum (9 out of 9) on the Piotroski financial health scale, and carries 15% margins — the profile of a durable, high-quality franchise capable of sustaining returns through commodity cycles. Quality | Piotroski score remains at 8 or above and gross margin stays above 10% for the next two annual reports. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite strong financial health metrics, two of the three actual quarterly earnings results were misses with a combined average surprise of -9.2%, suggesting execution risk that the quality scores do not fully capture. | ||
Analyst consensus implies 114% upside from the current price, and the canonical risk/reward geometry shows roughly 12.6-to-1 in your favor with 81.8% upside to the price target of $31.45 — one of the widest favorable asymmetry setups in the current universe. Price targets | The stock closes above $20.00 within 12 months, capturing a meaningful first leg of the analyst upside. | →Stable |
| CounterA 7.2% gap-up in recent sessions has pulled price away from technical support and may invite near-term profit-taking before the thesis can play out; implied volatility at 82% amplifies the magnitude of any retracement. | ||
Revenue grew 136% year-over-year while the stock is attractively valued at a PEG near zero, meaning the company is delivering substantial top-line expansion without demanding any multiple premium for that growth. Growth | Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year for the next two consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 136% revenue growth rate carries low confidence and may reflect a low comparison base or a non-recurring expansion rather than sustained organic compounding; two of three recent actual earnings quarters were misses, suggesting operating leverage has not yet flowed through consistently to the bottom line. | ||
OBV is rising, the stock trades above its 200-day moving average, and momentum scores 6.8 — above the 5.5 strong threshold — indicating genuine demand accumulation rather than speculative positioning. Momentum | OBV continues trending higher for the next two months and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is range-bound with RSI near the mid-range at 48; the recent 7.2% gap-up may partially reverse before the stock establishes a directional move, and volatility at 82% could make any pullback sharp. | ||
Recent news has triggered a caution flag that has moved the entry recommendation to a wait posture, even though the fundamental setup — wide moat, exceptional growth, and compelling asymmetry — remains unchanged. Warnings | The news-driven caution resolves within 30 days and the full near-term entry signal is restored as headline risk subsides. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo misses in three recent actual earnings results may be what the news is reflecting — if so, the caution is not temporary but signals a more persistent execution gap, extending the wait posture well beyond a typical headline cycle. | ||
The business earns a wide economic moat designation, scores a maximum (9 out of 9) on the Piotroski financial health scale, and carries 15% margins — the profile of a durable, high-quality franchise capable of sustaining returns through commodity cycles.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 8 or above and gross margin stays above 10% for the next two annual reports.
CounterDespite strong financial health metrics, two of the three actual quarterly earnings results were misses with a combined average surprise of -9.2%, suggesting execution risk that the quality scores do not fully capture.
Analyst consensus implies 114% upside from the current price, and the canonical risk/reward geometry shows roughly 12.6-to-1 in your favor with 81.8% upside to the price target of $31.45 — one of the widest favorable asymmetry setups in the current universe.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock closes above $20.00 within 12 months, capturing a meaningful first leg of the analyst upside.
CounterA 7.2% gap-up in recent sessions has pulled price away from technical support and may invite near-term profit-taking before the thesis can play out; implied volatility at 82% amplifies the magnitude of any retracement.
Revenue grew 136% year-over-year while the stock is attractively valued at a PEG near zero, meaning the company is delivering substantial top-line expansion without demanding any multiple premium for that growth.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year for the next two consecutive quarters.
CounterThe 136% revenue growth rate carries low confidence and may reflect a low comparison base or a non-recurring expansion rather than sustained organic compounding; two of three recent actual earnings quarters were misses, suggesting operating leverage has not yet flowed through consistently to the bottom line.
OBV is rising, the stock trades above its 200-day moving average, and momentum scores 6.8 — above the 5.5 strong threshold — indicating genuine demand accumulation rather than speculative positioning.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- OBV continues trending higher for the next two months and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average.
CounterThe setup is range-bound with RSI near the mid-range at 48; the recent 7.2% gap-up may partially reverse before the stock establishes a directional move, and volatility at 82% could make any pullback sharp.
Recent news has triggered a caution flag that has moved the entry recommendation to a wait posture, even though the fundamental setup — wide moat, exceptional growth, and compelling asymmetry — remains unchanged.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The news-driven caution resolves within 30 days and the full near-term entry signal is restored as headline risk subsides.
CounterTwo misses in three recent actual earnings results may be what the news is reflecting — if so, the caution is not temporary but signals a more persistent execution gap, extending the wait posture well beyond a typical headline cycle.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aris Mining combines a wide economic moat, 136% revenue growth, an attractively priced valuation with a near-zero PEG, and roughly 12.6-to-1 favorable risk/reward with 81.8% upside to the analyst target — making it a high-conviction starter position — though a recent news caution flag has moved the entry to a wait posture until near-term headline risk resolves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 8.4 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.8 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 136% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 131%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| beta | 3.5 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 60%
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAITPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:7.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.3x,ratio=0.23x
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
7.09
Upside
+96.6%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.95>1.3, MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.8 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 7.09 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.1, and Quality at 7.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.09 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Maximum Financial Health
Trip ifGross margin falls below 10% from current 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Exceptional Growth At Zero Peg
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Compelling Asymmetry And Analyst Upside
Trip ifStock price closes above $24.00, reducing upside to the $31.45 target below 30%.
- P4Rising Volume Above 200day Ma
Trip ifOBV trend turns negative for 4 consecutive weeks and stock closes below its 200-day moving average.
- P5News Caution Delays Near Term Entry
Trip ifCompany misses earnings estimates by more than 20% in the next quarterly report.