Value
9.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
ARIS · Why this verdict
Why Aris Mining (ARIS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aris Mining is a high-quality, fast-growing gold producer (62% revenue growth, 9/9 Piotroski, forward P/E 5.1x) with large modeled upside, but the low multiple may rest on stale commodity prices, momentum is weak and earnings land in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 5.1x with forward earnings at 0.49x trailing suggests EPS just expanded on a commodity-price surge, leaving mean-reversion risk unpriced. Bear case | Forward estimates hold even if the underlying commodity price eases. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA low multiple and strong beat history may mean the market already discounts a price reversal, so the risk is partly priced in. | ||
Momentum scores 3.0 with falling OBV and price below the 200-day average, although the average is still rising 1.1% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 5.2% gap down and distribution volume could mark the start of a larger decline with beta of 2.08. | ||
Revenue is growing 62% year over year with 22% margins, a wide moat and a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 30% and margins hold near 22%. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 42% of net income, a red flag that growth is capital-hungry. | ||
Forward P/E is 5.1x and the modeled target implies 117.9% upside against 11.8% downside, though analyst coverage is light. Estimated upside | Price rises toward the $31.45 target as earnings are delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and the target may rely on elevated spot commodity prices. | ||
The company beat estimates in the last 3 reported quarters with an average surprise of 6.1% and no misses, with the next report due November 4. Earnings | The November 4 report adds another beat. | →Stable |
| CounterSurprises are modest at 2-10%, and price fell with an extreme 5.2% gap down despite the beat record. | ||
Forward P/E of 5.1x with forward earnings at 0.49x trailing suggests EPS just expanded on a commodity-price surge, leaving mean-reversion risk unpriced.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward estimates hold even if the underlying commodity price eases.
CounterA low multiple and strong beat history may mean the market already discounts a price reversal, so the risk is partly priced in.
Momentum scores 3.0 with falling OBV and price below the 200-day average, although the average is still rising 1.1% over 30 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterThe 5.2% gap down and distribution volume could mark the start of a larger decline with beta of 2.08.
Revenue is growing 62% year over year with 22% margins, a wide moat and a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% and margins hold near 22%.
CounterFree cash flow is only 42% of net income, a red flag that growth is capital-hungry.
Forward P/E is 5.1x and the modeled target implies 117.9% upside against 11.8% downside, though analyst coverage is light.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the $31.45 target as earnings are delivered.
CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and the target may rely on elevated spot commodity prices.
The company beat estimates in the last 3 reported quarters with an average surprise of 6.1% and no misses, with the next report due November 4.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 4 report adds another beat.
CounterSurprises are modest at 2-10%, and price fell with an extreme 5.2% gap down despite the beat record.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.4 |
| ROA | 9.4 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 42% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 62% YoY
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 156%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.7 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 2.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| beta | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 38.75
- ▸High IV: 60%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:10.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=5.1x,ratio=0.49x
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
10.22
Upside
+117.9%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=9.5
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.11>1.3, MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.8<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 10.22.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.5, and Quality at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 10.22 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth High Quality Producer
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
- P2Deep Value With Large Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $12.75 stop level, more than 11.6% below $14.43.
- P3Commodity Price Mean Reversion Risk
Trip ifForward EPS estimates are cut by more than 30% as commodity prices decline.
- P4Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the November 4 report.
- P5Negative Momentum Pullback
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive months.