Ares Management ranks among the fastest-growing firms in its industry with 28% revenue growth and converts earnings to free cash flow at 2.8 times net income, yet three earnings misses in the past four quarters, elevated leverage, and an unfavorable risk/reward at the current price argue for patience over adding exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- Three Of Four Quarters Missed→Stable
- Leverage Penalty And High Short Interest→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. At $116.90, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Ares Management Corporation manages $622.5 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity strategies from over 55 offices in 25-plus countries. The firm earns management fees and performance-based income from over 2,850 direct institutional... Read more
Sell if holding. At $116.90, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Ares Management Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts Are Bullish on Top Financial Stocks: Ares Management (ARES), Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Fell 31.6% in Q1 Due to AI Fears - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Citizens cuts Ares Management stock price target on volatility concerns - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Citizens cuts Ares Capital stock price target on Q1 volatility - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Ares Capital Posts a Profit After Accounting Gain - Barron's — Barron's positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerARCC10-K Item 1A: 'we derive a significant portion of our management fees from ARCC'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $116.90, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $108.72. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $130.87 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $108.72. Stop-loss: $108.72.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.
Ares Management Corporation trades at a P/E of 53.9 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover ARES with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $145.
What does Ares Management Corporation do?Ares Management Corporation manages $622.5 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity...
Ares Management Corporation manages $622.5 billion in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity strategies from over 55 offices in 25-plus countries. The firm earns management fees and performance-based income from over 2,850 direct institutional relationships and a growing retail investor base across publicly-traded funds and perpetual vehicles.