AutoNation trades at a forward earnings multiple of 8x with a PEG below 1 and has delivered four consecutive quarters of earnings beats, but business quality falls short of the minimum acceptable threshold and heavy put options activity signals elevated near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Weak Quality Floor Breach→Stable
- Brand Concentration Supplier Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $186.41: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in major Sunbelt markets. Revenue streams span new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance products via a... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $186.41: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — AutoNation, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS AutoNation Acquires Three Premium Luxury Dealerships In San Francisco; Stores Represent ~$400M In Annual Revenue — benzinga Jun 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS AutoNation Acquires Toyota Of Newnan; Financial Terms Undisclosed — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Buy on AutoNation, Raises Price Target to $287 — benzinga May 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Yusheng Seeks IPO As China's Used Car Market Catches A Break — benzinga May 12, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on AutoNation, Raises Price Target to $255 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:10:53Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliercore brands89%10-K Item 1A: 'The core brands of vehicles that we sell, representing approximately 89% of the new vehicles that we sold in 2025...we are subject to a concentration of risk'
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida26%10-K Item 1: 'Florida| | 51 | | | 57 | | | 18 | | | 26 |'
- LOWGeographicTexas20%10-K Item 1: 'Texas| | 48 | | | 61 | | | 17 | | | 20 |'
- LOWGeographicCalifornia19%10-K Item 1: 'California| | 41 | | | 54 | | | 2 | | | 19 |'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved AutoNation's 2026 Employee Equity and Incentive Plan on April 28, 2026; allows grants of RSUs, options, and other awards; up to 1,275,000 new shares plus 883,316 carryover from the 2017 Plan.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $186.41: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $176.63. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $211.19 (+13.3% upside). Prior stop was $176.63. Stop-loss: $176.63.
Concentration risk — Supplier: core brands (89.0%); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
AutoNation, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover AN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $243.
What does AutoNation, Inc. do?AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30...
AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in major Sunbelt markets. Revenue streams span new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance products via a captive auto finance company; Florida (26%), Texas (20%), and California (19%) account for roughly 65% of total revenue.