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AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Sell5.8·$18.72-0.79%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Amphastar screens statistically cheap on both earnings and growth-adjusted multiples, but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with back-to-back earnings misses and falling estimates, so the re-rating case depends on stabilizing both fundamentals and the chart before the deep discount can close.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value MispricingImproving
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendDeteriorating
  • Earnings Miss StreakImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Negative price momentum.

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals develops, manufactures, and commercializes technically challenging generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal drugs plus active pharmaceutical ingredients, selling over 25 prescription products and one OTC product, Primatene MIST.... Read more

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.49%
Stop $17.86Target $19.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$22.00+17.5%6 analysts
$19.14our TP
$18.72price
$22.00mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

About Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals generated $719.9 million in net revenues and $98.1 million in net income in 2025, down from $732.0 million and $159.5 million in 2024, with its largest product, BAQSIMI nasal glucagon, accounting for 26% of net revenue — up sharply from 8% in the year it was acquired, 2023. Primatene MIST, the company's over-the-counter epinephrine inhaler, contributed another 15%, while glucagon, epinephrine, and lidocaine products added 10%, 10%, and 8%, respectively, meaning five named products together drove roughly 69% of 2025 net revenue.

Amphastar sells generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal drugs plus active pharmaceutical ingredients, competing on technical barriers to entry such as complex-molecule characterization, peptide and protein synthesis, and sustained-release drug delivery rather than on price alone. The company has expanded its FDA-approved portfolio recently — an albuterol sulfate inhalation aerosol (approved May 2024), iron sucrose injection (approved August 2025), teriparatide injection (approved December 2025), and an Ipratropium Bromide HFA inhalation aerosol (approved February 2026, launching in the second quarter) — while also manufacturing raw materials and APIs for outside customers and partners, including insulin API for MannKind at its Éragny-sur-Epte, France facility, where a significant portion of capacity is dedicated to that single customer relationship under an amended supply and option agreement.

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Amphastar's two largest revenue products carry offsetting supply-chain exposures the 10-K flags directly: the company depends on 'multiple single source suppliers' across its portfolio and specifically relies on a third party to manufacture BAQSIMI, its top revenue product at 26% of 2025 sales, meaning a single manufacturing disruption could simultaneously hit the product driving the most growth. That risk cuts the other way too at the MannKind facility in France, where Amphastar itself is the sole-source-style supplier: MannKind has repeatedly renegotiated down its annual minimum purchase commitments and will not buy recombinant human insulin for at least two more years while it qualifies Amphastar's upgraded product, leaving a French facility built around one customer's demand schedule.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

From Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25

Recent Developments — Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-25T14:12:23Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202612d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party BAQSIMI manufacturer
Target reached (2.2% upside)
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.3
P/E (Fwd)6.3
Mkt Cap$825M
EV/EBITDA6.2
Profit Mgn11.0%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta0.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C6.50bearish
IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductBAQSIMI26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales from our BAQSIMI® product that we acquired in June 2023 represented 26%, 20%, and 8% of our total net revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHSupplierthird-party BAQSIMI manufacturer
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our success depends on the integrity of our supply chain, including multiple single source suppliers, and reliance on a third party for the manufacture of BAQSIMI®, the disruption of which could negatively impact our business.'
  • LOWProductPrimatene MIST15%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales from our Primatene MIST® product represented 15%, 14%, and 14% of our total net revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerMannKind
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our manufacturing capacity in our facility in Éragny-sur-Epte, France is utilized for the manufacturing of insulin API for MannKind'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.5
Volume
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Put Call
0.0
Short Interest
0.1
Implied Vol
1.5
Days To Cover
2.8
Volatility
2.8
Debt Equity
5.7
Beta
7.7
High short interest: 20%Elevated put/call: 6.50High IV: 71%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
2.0
Earnings History
3.3
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 12 days
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $18.41Resistance $21.80

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.2% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMPH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.50; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.86. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMPH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.14 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $17.86. Stop-loss: $17.86.

What are the risks of investing in AMPH?

Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party BAQSIMI manufacturer; Target reached (2.2% upside); Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0).

Is AMPH overvalued or undervalued?

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMPH?

12 analysts cover AMPH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Amphastar Pharmaceuticals develops, manufactures, and commercializes technically challenging generic and proprietary...

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals develops, manufactures, and commercializes technically challenging generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal drugs plus active pharmaceutical ingredients, selling over 25 prescription products and one OTC product, Primatene MIST. The company reported $719.9 million in net revenues and $98.1 million in net income for 2025, with BAQSIMI (nasal glucagon) its largest product at 26% of net revenue, followed by Primatene MIST (15%), glucagon (10%), epinephrine (10%), and lidocaine (8%).

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