Allegiant Travel screens cheaply at a forward earnings multiple of about 9x and a PEG of 0.28, but free cash flow is currently negative as a percentage of revenue and overall quality has fallen materially below any investment-grade threshold; a 7.2% gap higher adds technical overextension risk, and the reward-to-risk geometry remains unfavorable — making patience the prudent posture while fundamentals improve.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Valuation Multiples↓Deteriorating
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality Concern↑Improving
- Lumpy Earnings Delivery↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Airlines
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.75: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.08; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
We are a leisure travel company focused on providing travel and leisure services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. Our vision is to be the leading airline in the communities we serve, offering reliable, nonstop travel at unbeatable value. We... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.75: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.08; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Allegiant Travel Company
Latest news
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Neutral on Allegiant Travel, Lowers Price Target to $110 — benzinga Aug 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Amazon Takes New Stake In Allegiant Travel Co With 149,317 Shares — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Allegiant Travel, Raises Price Target to $111 — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Allegiant Travel Sees Q3 Adj EPS $(1.00)-$0.00 vs $0.06 Est — benzinga Aug 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Allegiant Travel Q2 Adj. EPS $2.19 Beats $1.14 Estimate, Sales $943.490M Miss $978.158M Estimate — benzinga Aug 4, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-08-15T13:12:17Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02MEDIUM(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) | (Commission File Number) | (I.R.S.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.75: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.08; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $81.62. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $119.07 (+38.9% upside). Prior stop was $81.62. Stop-loss: $81.62.
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.8%), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.50% of cap), Negative free cash flow.
Allegiant Travel Company trades at a P/E of 73.9 (forward 7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover ALGT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $137.
What does Allegiant Travel Company do?We are a leisure travel company focused on providing travel and leisure services and products to residents of...
We are a leisure travel company focused on providing travel and leisure services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. Our vision is to be the leading airline in the communities we serve, offering reliable, nonstop travel at unbeatable value. We were founded in 1997 and, in conjunction with our initial public offering in 2006, we incorporated in the state of Nevada.