AAR Corp. has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging 12% above consensus and is growing at 25% year over year, but a free cash flow conversion of only 16% of net income raises earnings quality concerns, and the stock has reached its near-term price target with essentially no remaining upside at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Free Cash Flow Quality Gap→Stable
- Exhausted Near Term Upside→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AAR Corp. (AIR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Wait for pullback to $136.50. BUY gates pass at $145.25, but concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $136.50 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
AAR Corp. is an independent provider of aviation aftermarket products and services operating in more than 20 countries through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services. Fiscal 2025 consolidated sales rose 19.9% to... Read more
Wait for pullback to $136.50. BUY gates pass at $145.25, but concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $136.50 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About AAR Corp.
About AAR Corp.
AAR Corp. generated roughly $2.78 billion in consolidated sales in fiscal 2025, up 19.9% year over year, with commercial airline and OEM customers accounting for $1,976.1 million (71.1% of sales) and government and defense customers contributing $804.3 million (28.9%). The Parts Supply segment led all four operating segments at approximately 40% of sales, ahead of Repair & Engineering (32%), Integrated Solutions (25%), and Expeditionary Services (3%). AAR employed approximately 5,600 people worldwide as of May 31, 2025.
AAR earns revenue by selling and leasing used serviceable material (USM) and new OEM-supplied replacement parts through its Parts Supply segment, performing airframe and component maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) through Repair & Engineering, and running fleet management, supply-chain logistics, and Trax maintenance software through Integrated Solutions, alongside pallet and container manufacturing for military and humanitarian deployment in Expeditionary Services. The company holds exclusive OEM distribution agreements — including an extended agreement with FTAI Aviation for CFM56 engine USM through 2030 — and is an authorized distributor for more than 30 product lines sourced from over 20 OEMs. Government work, including a ten-year prime contract with the U.S. Department of State to operate its global aircraft fleet, is billed under firm fixed-price, cost-plus, and time-and-materials structures and is sensitive to congressional appropriations; the 10-K discloses a $70 million annual revenue reduction after an April 2025 proposal to cut the DoS budget by nearly 50%. Firm backlog stood at $537.2 million at fiscal year-end, with about 75% expected to convert to revenue in fiscal 2026.
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AAR's government exposure creates a distinct funding risk separate from its commercial cyclicality: sales to U.S. government branches, agencies, and contractors reached $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025, the majority tied to Department of Defense aircraft sustainment, mobility systems, and the Department of State's INL/A WASS fleet-operations contract. That dependence became concrete in April 2025, when the White House Office of Management and Budget proposed cutting the DoS budget by nearly 50% and closing multiple overseas diplomatic missions, a change AAR says reduced available funding for its DoS contracts by $70 million in annual revenue. A Section 232 national-security investigation into commercial aircraft and engine imports, opened by the Commerce Department in May 2025, adds a second, unresolved regulatory variable to the company's outlook.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AAR Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — AAR Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS 3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook AAR (AIR) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS 3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook AAR (AIR) - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS AAR Corp (AIR) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS AAR Corp (AIR) Stock Down 9.8% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 83/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Why AAR (AIR) Shares Are Getting Obliterated Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-08-16T16:37:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomercommercial customers71%10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to commercial customers, including major airlines and related OEM suppliers, were $1,976.1 million (71.1% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government branches, agencies and contractors25%10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors were $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicforeign customers34%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 34.2% of our consolidated sales in fiscal 2025 derived from sales to foreign customers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $136.50. BUY gates pass at $145.25, but concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $136.50 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $150.92 (+3.9%), stop $124.50 (−16.7%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $150.92 (-13.0% upside). Target $150.92 (+3.9%), stop $124.50 (−16.7%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $124.50.
Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 29.8 (forward 22.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
12 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $145.
What does AAR Corp. do?AAR Corp. is an independent provider of aviation aftermarket products and services operating in more than 20 countries...
AAR Corp. is an independent provider of aviation aftermarket products and services operating in more than 20 countries through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services. Fiscal 2025 consolidated sales rose 19.9% to roughly $2.78 billion, with commercial airline and OEM customers generating 71.1% of sales and government/defense customers 28.9%.