AAR Corp. has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging 12% above consensus and is growing at 25% year over year, but a free cash flow conversion of only 16% of net income raises earnings quality concerns, and the stock has reached its near-term price target with essentially no remaining upside at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Free Cash Flow Quality Gap→Stable
- Exhausted Near Term Upside↑Improving
- Consistent Earnings Execution↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AAR Corp. (AIR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
AAR Corp. provides aviation aftermarket products and services globally through four segments: Parts Supply (approximately 40% of sales), Repair & Engineering (32%), Integrated Solutions (25%), and Expeditionary Services (3%). The company generated $2.78 billion in consolidated... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About AAR Corp.
About AAR Corp.
AAR Corp. generated $2.78 billion in consolidated sales in fiscal 2025 across four segments: Parts Supply (approximately 40% of sales), Repair & Engineering (32%), Integrated Solutions (25%), and Expeditionary Services (3%). Commercial customers made up 71.1% of sales while government and defense customers accounted for 28.9%, and international customers represented 34.2% of the total. The company employed approximately 5,600 people worldwide as of May 31, 2025, with a $537.2 million firm backlog at fiscal year-end.
AAR earns revenue primarily through product sales, new OEM-supplied replacement parts and used serviceable material harvested from acquired aircraft and engines, plus repair, overhaul, and logistics services billed under standard commercial purchase orders or government contracts that can be fixed-price, cost-plus-fixed-fee, or time-and-materials. The Integrated Solutions segment operates as prime contractor on the ten-year INL/A WASS contract managing the U.S. Department of State's global aircraft fleet, alongside supply chain logistics for the Department of Defense and the Trax cloud-based MRO software platform. Of the $537.2 million firm backlog at fiscal year-end, roughly 75% is expected to convert to revenue in fiscal 2026 and 20% in fiscal 2027. AAR extended its exclusive agreement with FTAI Aviation for CFM56 engine used serviceable material through 2030 and holds distribution contracts with Unison, Chromalloy, and Ontic.
Show full overview
AAR's government exposure creates budget-driven revenue risk distinct from its commercial cyclicality: sales to U.S. government branches, agencies, and their contractors reached $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025, concentrated in Department of State flight operations and Department of Defense logistics contracts that are typically terminable for convenience. In April 2025, the White House Office of Management and Budget proposed cutting the State Department's budget by nearly 50%, a move that has already reduced available funding for AAR's DoS contracts by $70 million in annual revenue. A negative outcome from the Commerce Department's Section 232 national security investigation into commercial aircraft and jet engine imports, initiated in May 2025, could compound pressure on this government-dependent revenue base.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AAR Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 26, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — AAR Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS AAR Corp. (AIR) Edges Higher as Aerospace Sector Shows Resilience - Social Sentiment - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS Here’s How Much Delta Air Lines Stock Is Expected to Move After Earnings - Investopedia — Investopedia positive
- NEWS AAR Corp (AIR) Stock Down 4.9% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 83/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS AAR Corp. (AIR) Gains 1.10% as Defense Demand Supports Trajectory Above Support - Value Area High - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS Air Products Stock Jumped 8% After Scrapping Its $2.9 Billion Louisiana Project. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go in 2026 — TIKR.com positive
Generated 2026-07-27T14:53:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomercommercial customers71%10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to commercial customers, including major airlines and related OEM suppliers, were $1,976.1 million (71.1% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomergovernment and defense customers29%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to global government and defense customers ... were $804.3 million (28.9% of consolidated sales)'
- MEDIUMGeographicforeign customers34%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 34.2% of our consolidated sales in fiscal 2025 derived from sales to foreign customers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $133.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $143.81 (+7.6%), stop $124.57 (−7.3%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $143.81 (-5.7% upside). Target $143.81 (+7.6%), stop $124.57 (−7.3%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $124.57.
Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 26.5 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
11 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $145.
What does AAR Corp. do?AAR Corp. provides aviation aftermarket products and services globally through four segments: Parts Supply...
AAR Corp. provides aviation aftermarket products and services globally through four segments: Parts Supply (approximately 40% of sales), Repair & Engineering (32%), Integrated Solutions (25%), and Expeditionary Services (3%). The company generated $2.78 billion in consolidated sales in fiscal 2025, with 71.1% from commercial airline and OEM customers and 28.9% from government and defense customers. AAR holds exclusive OEM distribution relationships in select markets and serves as prime contractor on the ten-year INL/A WASS contract managing the U.S. Department of State's global aircraft fleet.