AAR Corp. (AIR) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $100.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider offering parts supply (40% of sales), MRO services (32%), integrated fleet management (25%), and expeditionary services (3%) to commercial airlines and government customers. FY2025 consolidated sales were ~$2.78B, with... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $100.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — AAR Corp.
Latest news
- AAR Signs Multi-Year Commercial Distribution Agreement With Woodward To Serve As Preferred Distributor Of Woodward Consu — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 neutral
- AAR Corp Wins $305M Contract To Provide Contractor Logistics Support For The United States Navy And Marine Corps C-40A F — benzinga Apr 14, 2026 positive
- Keybanc Maintains Overweight on AAR, Raises Price Target to $132 — benzinga Apr 9, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government25%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors were $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUMDylan Wolin appointed SVP and CFO of AAR CORP effective February 23, 2026. Sarah L. Flanagan (Interim CFO) steps down from Interim role and continues as VP, Financial Operations. No reason cited for the change.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $100.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $96.63. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $114.55 (+13.5% upside). Prior stop was $96.63. Stop-loss: $96.63.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $132.
What does AAR Corp. do?AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider offering parts supply (40% of sales), MRO services (32%),...
AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider offering parts supply (40% of sales), MRO services (32%), integrated fleet management (25%), and expeditionary services (3%) to commercial airlines and government customers. FY2025 consolidated sales were ~$2.78B, with 71.1% from commercial customers and 24.7% from U.S. government/defense.