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AIRAAR Corp.Sell5.8·$114.72-1.65%
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AAR Corp. (AIR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $114.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider offering parts supply (40% of sales), MRO services (32%), integrated fleet management (25%), and expeditionary services (3%) to commercial airlines and government customers. FY2025 consolidated sales were ~$2.78B, with... Read more

$114.72+2.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#9 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.61%
Stop $106.69Target $117.17(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$131.67+14.8%6 analysts
$117.17our TP
$114.72price
$131.67mean
$150

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $114.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.2
P/E (Fwd)20.3
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE12.1%
Rev Growth24.6%
Beta1.14
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.13bearish
IV67%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors were $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Dylan Wolin appointed SVP and CFO of AAR CORP effective February 23, 2026. Sarah L. Flanagan (Interim CFO) steps down from Interim role and continues as VP, Financial Operations. No reason cited for the change.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $99.62Resistance $119.56

Price Targets

$107
$117
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AIR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $114.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $106.69. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AIR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $117.17 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $106.69. Stop-loss: $106.69.

What are the risks of investing in AIR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is AIR overvalued or undervalued?

AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 25.2 (forward 20.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AIR?

11 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $132.

What does AAR Corp. do?AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider offering parts supply (40% of sales), MRO services (32%),...

AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider offering parts supply (40% of sales), MRO services (32%), integrated fleet management (25%), and expeditionary services (3%) to commercial airlines and government customers. FY2025 consolidated sales were ~$2.78B, with 71.1% from commercial customers and 24.7% from U.S. government/defense.

Related stocks: LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.) · HEI (Heico Corporation) · VSEC (VSE Corporation) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.) · FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.)
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