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AAR Corp. (AIR) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $109.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%.

AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider operating Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services segments in 20+ countries. Commercial customers represented 71.1% of fiscal 2025 consolidated sales of ~$2.78B; U.S.... Read more

$109.78+3.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $102.10Target $113.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$131.00+19.3%6 analysts
$113.97our TP
$109.78price
$131.00mean
$150

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $109.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%)
Thin upside margin: 3.8%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.2
P/E (Fwd)18.7
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE12.1%
Rev Growth24.6%
Beta1.21
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomercommercial customers71%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to commercial customers, including major airlines and related OEM suppliers, were $1,976.1 million (71.1% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025.'
  • LOWCustomerU.S. government25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors were $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Dylan Wolin appointed SVP and CFO effective February 23, 2026. Sarah Flanagan (Interim CFO) steps down as Interim CFO and continues as VP, Financial Operations. Clean handoff; no reason cited for change.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $104.86Resistance $127.21

Price Targets

$102
$114
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AIR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $109.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $113.97 (+3.8%), stop $102.10 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AIR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $113.97 (+3.8% upside). Target $113.97 (+3.8%), stop $102.10 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $102.10.

What are the risks of investing in AIR?

Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Negative momentum.

Is AIR overvalued or undervalued?

AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AIR?

12 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $131.

What does AAR Corp. do?AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider operating Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated...

AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider operating Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services segments in 20+ countries. Commercial customers represented 71.1% of fiscal 2025 consolidated sales of ~$2.78B; U.S. government accounted for 24.7%.

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