AAR Corp. (AIR) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. At $109.52, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%).
AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider operating Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services segments in 20+ countries. Commercial customers represented 71.1% of fiscal 2025 consolidated sales of ~$2.78B; U.S.... Read more
Sell if holding. At $109.52, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomercommercial customers71%10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to commercial customers, including major airlines and related OEM suppliers, were $1,976.1 million (71.1% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025.'
- LOWCustomerU.S. government25%10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors were $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUMDylan Wolin appointed SVP and CFO effective February 23, 2026. Sarah Flanagan (Interim CFO) steps down as Interim CFO and continues as VP, Financial Operations. Clean handoff; no reason cited for change.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $109.52, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $101.85. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $113.97 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $101.85. Stop-loss: $101.85.
Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Negative momentum.
AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $131.
What does AAR Corp. do?AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider operating Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated...
AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider operating Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services segments in 20+ countries. Commercial customers represented 71.1% of fiscal 2025 consolidated sales of ~$2.78B; U.S. government accounted for 24.7%.