AAR Corp. (AIR) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AIR stock price target?

Take-profit $113.97 (+3.8% upside). Target $113.97 (+3.8%), stop $102.10 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1.

Q: Is AIR overvalued or undervalued?

AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about AIR?

12 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $131.

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $109.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%.

AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider operating Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services segments in 20+ countries. Commercial customers represented 71.1% of fiscal 2025 consolidated sales of ~$2.78B; U.S.... Read more

$109.78+3.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 46 Aerospace & Defense

Stop $102.10Target $113.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1

Analyst target$131.00+19.3%6 analysts

$113.97our TP

$109.78price

$131.00mean

$150

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $109.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Strong growth profile

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%)

Thin upside margin: 3.8%

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.2

P/E (Fwd)18.7

Mkt Cap$4.2B

EV/EBITDA14.7

Profit Mgn5.5%

ROE12.1%

Rev Growth24.6%

Beta1.21

DividendNone

Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish

IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomercommercial customers71%
10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to commercial customers, including major airlines and related OEM suppliers, were $1,976.1 million (71.1% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025.'
LOWCustomerU.S. government25%
10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors were $687.6 million (24.7% of consolidated sales) in fiscal 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
Dylan Wolin appointed SVP and CFO effective February 23, 2026. Sarah Flanagan (Interim CFO) steps down as Interim CFO and continues as VP, Financial Operations. Clean handoff; no reason cited for change.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.415%0.96

Quality4.115%0.61

Growth7.715%1.16

Momentum2.610%0.26

Sentiment6.910%0.69

Insider Activity3.310%0.33

Peer Rank5.210%0.52

Technical Setup6.95%0.35

Risk Profile6.55%0.33

Catalyst7.15%0.35

Overall (Σ contributions)5.55

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

4.0

Rsi

7.9

Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

36 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $104.86Resistance $127.21

Price Targets

$102

$114

A.Upside+3.8%

A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AIR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $109.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $113.97 (+3.8%), stop $102.10 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AIR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $113.97 (+3.8% upside). Target $113.97 (+3.8%), stop $102.10 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $102.10.

What are the risks of investing in AIR?

Concentration risk — Customer: commercial customers (71.1%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Negative momentum.

Is AIR overvalued or undervalued?

AAR Corp. trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AIR?

12 analysts cover AIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $131.

What does AAR Corp. do?AAR Corp. is an independent aviation aftermarket provider operating Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated...