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AFYAAfya LimitedBuy Wait5.7·$13.90+1.02%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Afya trades at a notably low forward P/E of 6.9x with a near-perfect Piotroski score and three beats in the last four quarters, but soft revenue growth and a momentum profile that has yet to recover above the long-term average require patience at entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum Below Entry ThresholdStable
  • High Quality Franchise MarginsStable
  • Deeply Discounted ValuationImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Afya Limited (AFYA) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitValueQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Wait for pullback to $13.20. At $13.90 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.20 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Weak growth.

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical... Read more

$13.90+5.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#10 of 18 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield41.32%
IncomeYield4.72%Payout41.51%sustainable
Entry $13.20(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $12.26Target $14.67(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$16.86+21.3%9 analysts
$14.67our TP
$13.90price
$16.86mean
$21

Wait for pullback to $13.20. At $13.90 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.20 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.7 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=consumer defensive 0/10). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.5%
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.5
P/E (Fwd)6.9
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA2.1
Profit Mgn20.1%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta0.35
Dividend4.72%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.0
Macd
2.5
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.6
Revenue Growth
4.5
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Consumer Defensive 0/10Suitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.57Resistance $15.55

Price Targets

$12
$13
$15
A.Upside+5.5%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.6%
Max %3.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 1.7 < 4.5 minimum
! R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFYA stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $13.20. At $13.90 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.20 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.7 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $14.67 (+5.5%), stop $12.26 (−13.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFYA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.67 (+5.5% upside). Target $14.67 (+5.5%), stop $12.26 (−13.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $12.26.

What are the risks of investing in AFYA?

Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is AFYA overvalued or undervalued?

Afya Limited trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AFYA?

13 analysts cover AFYA with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Afya Limited do?Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate,...

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical school, health sciences, and other non-health undergraduate programs, including medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy, nutrition, biomedicine, business administration, accounting, law, civil and industrial engineering, and pedagogy. The Continuing Education segment provides medical education, including residency preparation programs, specialization test preparation, graduate courses in medicine, and digital and in-person professional development for physicians and medical students. The Medical Practice Solutions segment offers clinical decision support platforms, medical practice management software, healthcare financial services, and digital healthcare ecosystem solutions, such as electronic medical records, practice management tools, telemedicine, digital prescriptions, and doctor-patient relationship platforms. This segment also provides a subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others. The company also offers educational health and medical imaging; and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. In addition, it offers printed and digital content, as well as an online medical education platform and physicians, healthcare professionals and students. Afya Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Related stocks: TAL (TAL Education Group) · PXED (Phoenix Education Partners, Inc) · PRDO (Perdoceo Education Corporation) · EDU (New Oriental Education & Techno) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.)
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