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AFYAAfya LimitedHold5.8·$15.20+1.33%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Afya trades at a notably low forward P/E of 6.9x with a near-perfect Piotroski score and three beats in the last four quarters, but soft revenue growth and a momentum profile that has yet to recover above the long-term average require patience at entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum Below Entry ThresholdStable
  • High Quality Franchise MarginsStable
  • Deeply Discounted ValuationStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Afya Limited (AFYA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical... Read more

$15.20+10.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 18 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield37.61%
IncomeYield4.29%Payout41.51%sustainable
Entry $13.66(support + ATR)Stop $13.05Target $15.06(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$16.56+8.9%9 analysts
$15.06our TP
$15.20price
$16.56mean
$14
$21

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $15.27 has reached target $15.06. No upside to wait for. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.5
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA2.2
Profit Mgn20.1%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta0.35
Dividend4.29%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV63%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.5
52w Position
7.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.6
Revenue Growth
4.5
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.45Resistance $15.37

Price Targets

$13
$14
$15
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.3%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFYA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $15.27 has reached target $15.06. No upside to wait for. Target $15.06 (-0.9%), stop $13.05 (−16.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFYA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.06 (+10.2% upside). Target $15.06 (-0.9%), stop $13.05 (−16.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $13.05.

What are the risks of investing in AFYA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is AFYA overvalued or undervalued?

Afya Limited trades at a P/E of 9.5 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AFYA?

13 analysts cover AFYA with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Afya Limited do?Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate,...

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical school, health sciences, and other non-health undergraduate programs, including medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy, nutrition, biomedicine, business administration, accounting, law, civil and industrial engineering, and pedagogy. The Continuing Education segment provides medical education, including residency preparation programs, specialization test preparation, graduate courses in medicine, and digital and in-person professional development for physicians and medical students. The Medical Practice Solutions segment offers clinical decision support platforms, medical practice management software, healthcare financial services, and digital healthcare ecosystem solutions, such as electronic medical records, practice management tools, telemedicine, digital prescriptions, and doctor-patient relationship platforms. This segment also provides a subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others. The company also offers educational health and medical imaging; and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. In addition, it offers printed and digital content, as well as an online medical education platform and physicians, healthcare professionals and students. Afya Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Related stocks: TAL (TAL Education Group) · EDU (New Oriental Education & Techno) · PRDO (Perdoceo Education Corporation) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) · PXED (Phoenix Education Partners, Inc)
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