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ADTADT Inc.Sell5.9·$6.71-1.40%
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ADT Inc. (ADT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. At $6.71, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.8%.

ADT is a US home security and automation company serving ~6.1 million residential and small business subscribers through professional monitoring, smart home solutions, and a growing DIY segment via its ADT+ app. Revenue is primarily recurring monthly fees from 2-5 year... Read more

$6.71+5.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 8 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield19.10%
IncomeYield3.24%(5y avg 2.26%)Payout28.95%sustainable
Stop $6.43Target $7.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$8.16+21.6%5 analysts
$7.10our TP
$6.71price
$8.16mean
$9

Sell if holding. At $6.71, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.8%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — ADT Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 40%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.9
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA4.8
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth0.9%
Beta1.02
Dividend3.24%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.42bearish
IV111%elevated
Max Pain$1-85.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Three Apollo-designee directors (Reed Rayman, Nicole Bonsignore, Benjamin Honig) resigned effective May 5, 2026 following Apollo's full exit from ADT shares. No disagreement with the Company on operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.55Resistance $7.03

Price Targets

$6
$7
A.Upside+5.8%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $6.71, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.8%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Prior stop was $6.43. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.10 (+5.8% upside). Prior stop was $6.43. Stop-loss: $6.43.

What are the risks of investing in ADT?

Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADT overvalued or undervalued?

ADT Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.9 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADT?

10 analysts cover ADT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $8.

What does ADT Inc. do?ADT is a US home security and automation company serving ~6.1 million residential and small business subscribers...

ADT is a US home security and automation company serving ~6.1 million residential and small business subscribers through professional monitoring, smart home solutions, and a growing DIY segment via its ADT+ app. Revenue is primarily recurring monthly fees from 2-5 year monitoring contracts, with >80% of residential customers on automated payment methods; all revenue is US-based.

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