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ADT Inc. (ADT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

ADT provides residential and small business security monitoring, smart home, and automation services to ~6.1 million subscribers across the U.S. via nationwide sales offices and monitoring centers. Revenue comes from recurring monthly monitoring fees and equipment installation;... Read more

$7.49+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 8 Security & Protection Services
Stop $7.13Target $7.59(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$8.10+8.1%5 analysts
$7.59our TP
$7.49price
$8.10mean
$7
$9

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.5
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA5.0
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE15.8%
Rev Growth1.2%
Beta1.05
Dividend3.07%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.08bearish
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
1.9
Gap
3.0
52w Position
7.0
Extreme gap up (6.0%) - may pull back

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.5
Value Rank
6.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Rsi
2.3
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
7.3
Overbought bear rally (RSI 81)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.43Resistance $7.74

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $7.13. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.59 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $7.13. Stop-loss: $7.13.

What are the risks of investing in ADT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is ADT overvalued or undervalued?

ADT Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADT?

10 analysts cover ADT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $8.

What does ADT Inc. do?ADT provides residential and small business security monitoring, smart home, and automation services to ~6.1 million...

ADT provides residential and small business security monitoring, smart home, and automation services to ~6.1 million subscribers across the U.S. via nationwide sales offices and monitoring centers. Revenue comes from recurring monthly monitoring fees and equipment installation; >80% of residential customers pay via automated methods. ADT has strategic partnerships with Google and State Farm, and acquired Origin AI (ambient sensing) in February 2026.

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