ADT is a stable security-services business with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and strong cash conversion, but at $9.86 it trades 23.5% above the $7.54 analyst target after an overbought run (RSI 92) into earnings.
Thesis pillars
- Overbought Late Cycle Momentum↓Deteriorating
- Price Well Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
ADT Inc. (ADT) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.90 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away).
ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business customers in the United States, operating under a brand established in 1874. Revenue is earned primarily from recurring monthly monitoring fees across... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.90 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 115d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About ADT Inc.
About ADT Inc.
ADT's nationwide security monitoring infrastructure served 6.1 million U.S. residential and small business subscribers at December 31, 2025, operating through six fully redundant monitoring centers with no material revenue outside the United States. The company's ADT+ application completed a phased national rollout through 2025, integrating professionally installed and DIY monitoring, smart home automation, and AI-assisted alarm verification.
ADT earns revenue primarily through recurring monthly monitoring fees under standard two-, three-, and five-year contracts with automatic renewals, with more than 80% of residential customers paying via automated methods. The company typically achieves revenue break-even on a new subscriber installation in roughly two years, reflecting upfront installation labor, commissions, and equipment costs. Approximately 140 authorized dealers generate a portion of new subscriber accounts under three-year dealer contracts, and ADT also reaches customers through direct channels, retail, and e-commerce. The partnership with Google includes a Master Supply, Distribution, and Marketing Agreement running through November 15, 2030, and a $200 million commitment to Google Cloud Platform services over seven years through December 2030. In February 2026, ADT acquired Origin AI for $170 million cash to add AI-enabled ambient sensing to its security platform.
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Much of ADT's end-user hardware — cameras, alarm panels, and smart home devices — is manufactured in China and Mexico, and the 10-K notes that existing or new tariffs on such imports may harm business results. This supply chain exposure sits alongside technological risk: the retirement of older telecommunications technologies or limitations on customers' broadband options could require significant capital expenditures and accelerate subscriber attrition. The company has also committed to $200 million of Google Cloud Platform purchases over seven years through December 2030, concentrating cloud infrastructure spending with a single provider.
See also: Industrials · Security & Protection Services
From ADT Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — ADT Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ADT Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Stock Market Today, Oct. 29: ADT Surges 33% on $10 Per Share All-Cash Acquisition Deal - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS ADT stock spikes 34% on $7.6 billion takeover deal by Josh Kushner’s Thrive - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS ADT stock surges to 5-year high after Thrive Holdings agrees to $7.6 billion buyout deal - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS ADT agrees to $7.6 billion buyout; more offers possible - TheStreet — TheStreet Oct 29, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierChina, Mexico equipment manufacturing10-K Item 1A: 'imports from China, Mexico, or other countries where much of our end-user equipment is manufactured'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWThree Apollo-designated directors — Reed B. Rayman, Nicole Bonsignore, and Benjamin Honig — resigned May 5, 2026, in connection with Apollo selling all remaining Common Stock. No disagreement with company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.90 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $9.22. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $7.54 reached (−23.8% from $9.90); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $9.22. Stop-loss: $9.22.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.0% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
ADT Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate ADT, with a consensus score of 2.4/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $9.
What does ADT Inc. do?ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business...
ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business customers in the United States, operating under a brand established in 1874. Revenue is earned primarily from recurring monthly monitoring fees across approximately 6.1 million subscribers as of December 31, 2025, with standard multi-year contracts and automated billing for over 80% of residential customers.