ADT Inc. (ADT) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Sell if holding. At $6.72, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.6%.
ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business customers in the United States, operating under a brand established in 1874. Revenue is earned primarily from recurring monthly monitoring fees across... Read more
Sell if holding. At $6.72, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.6%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About ADT Inc.
About ADT Inc.
ADT's nationwide security monitoring infrastructure served 6.1 million U.S. residential and small business subscribers at December 31, 2025, operating through six fully redundant monitoring centers with no material revenue outside the United States. The company's ADT+ application completed a phased national rollout through 2025, integrating professionally installed and DIY monitoring, smart home automation, and AI-assisted alarm verification.
ADT earns revenue primarily through recurring monthly monitoring fees under standard two-, three-, and five-year contracts with automatic renewals, with more than 80% of residential customers paying via automated methods. The company typically achieves revenue break-even on a new subscriber installation in roughly two years, reflecting upfront installation labor, commissions, and equipment costs. Approximately 140 authorized dealers generate a portion of new subscriber accounts under three-year dealer contracts, and ADT also reaches customers through direct channels, retail, and e-commerce. The partnership with Google includes a Master Supply, Distribution, and Marketing Agreement running through November 15, 2030, and a $200 million commitment to Google Cloud Platform services over seven years through December 2030. In February 2026, ADT acquired Origin AI for $170 million cash to add AI-enabled ambient sensing to its security platform.
Show full overview
Much of ADT's end-user hardware — cameras, alarm panels, and smart home devices — is manufactured in China and Mexico, and the 10-K notes that existing or new tariffs on such imports may harm business results. This supply chain exposure sits alongside technological risk: the retirement of older telecommunications technologies or limitations on customers' broadband options could require significant capital expenditures and accelerate subscriber attrition. The company has also committed to $200 million of Google Cloud Platform purchases over seven years through December 2030, concentrating cloud infrastructure spending with a single provider.
See also: Industrials · Security & Protection Services
From ADT Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — ADT Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ADT Prices 102M Common Stock Offering On Behalf Of Selling Stockholders — benzinga May 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ADT Announces Secondary Share Offering Of 102M Shares By Apollo Global Management, And The Company Intends to Buy ~29.1M — benzinga May 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Full Transcript: ADT Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ADT Sees FY 2026 revenue and Adjusted EPS approximately flat YoY — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For April 30, 2026 — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:02:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierChina, Mexico equipment manufacturing10-K Item 1A: 'imports from China, Mexico, or other countries where much of our end-user equipment is manufactured'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWThree Apollo-designated directors — Reed B. Rayman, Nicole Bonsignore, and Benjamin Honig — resigned May 5, 2026, in connection with Apollo selling all remaining Common Stock. No disagreement with company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $6.72, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.6%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Prior stop was $6.44. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.10 (+5.7% upside). Prior stop was $6.44. Stop-loss: $6.44.
Thin upside margin: 5.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
ADT Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.8 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover ADT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $8.
What does ADT Inc. do?ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business...
ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business customers in the United States, operating under a brand established in 1874. Revenue is earned primarily from recurring monthly monitoring fees across approximately 6.1 million subscribers as of December 31, 2025, with standard multi-year contracts and automated billing for over 80% of residential customers.