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ADT Inc. (ADT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. At $6.87, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

ADT is a US home security and automation company serving ~6.1 million residential and small business subscribers through professional monitoring, smart home solutions, and a growing DIY segment via its ADT+ app. Revenue is primarily recurring monthly fees from 2-5 year... Read more

$6.87+3.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 8 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield18.61%
IncomeYield3.15%(5y avg 2.23%)Payout28.95%sustainable
Stop $6.50Target $7.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$8.16+18.8%5 analysts
$7.10our TP
$6.87price
$8.16mean
$9

Sell if holding. At $6.87, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — ADT Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 8, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Three Apollo-designee directors (Reed Rayman, Nicole Bonsignore, Benjamin Honig) resigned effective May 5, 2026 following Apollo's full exit from ADT shares. No disagreement with the Company on operations, policies, or practices cited.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 39%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.3%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.2
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA4.8
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth0.9%
Beta1.07
Dividend3.15%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.15bearish
IV48%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Three Apollo-designee directors (Reed Rayman, Nicole Bonsignore, Benjamin Honig) resigned effective May 5, 2026 following Apollo's full exit from ADT shares. No disagreement with the Company on operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Ma Position
3.0
Macd
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
3.1
Value Rank
7.5
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.70Resistance $7.74

Price Targets

$7
$7
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $6.87, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $6.50. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the ADT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.10 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $6.50. Stop-loss: $6.50.

What are the risks of investing in ADT?

Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5.

Is ADT overvalued or undervalued?

ADT Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADT?

10 analysts cover ADT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $8.

What does ADT Inc. do?ADT is a US home security and automation company serving ~6.1 million residential and small business subscribers...

ADT is a US home security and automation company serving ~6.1 million residential and small business subscribers through professional monitoring, smart home solutions, and a growing DIY segment via its ADT+ app. Revenue is primarily recurring monthly fees from 2-5 year monitoring contracts, with >80% of residential customers on automated payment methods; all revenue is US-based.

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