Acadia Healthcare has beaten earnings estimates in all four recent quarters, but the stock has essentially reached its near-term target with only 0.5% upside remaining, the underlying business generates negative free cash flow at roughly 6% of revenue, and 39% short interest reflects broad market skepticism about the fundamental outlook.
Thesis pillars
- Medicaid Concentration Policy Risk↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Target Reached No Entry Case→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.13: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 35%; Below-average business quality.
Acadia Healthcare operates 277 behavioral healthcare facilities with over 12,500 beds across 40 states and Puerto Rico through acute inpatient psychiatric, specialty treatment, comprehensive treatment center, and residential programs. Revenue totaled $3,312.8 million in 2025,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.13: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 35%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-05Recent Developments — Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Abercrombie & Fitch Posts Upbeat Q2 Results, Joins Semtech, Summit Therapeutics And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On We — benzinga Aug 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS Guggenheim Maintains Buy on Acadia Healthcare Co, Raises Price Target to $39 — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Acadia Healthcare Co, Raises Price Target to $32 — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Acadia Healthcare Co Raises FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $1.35-$1.60 to $1.45-$1.60 vs $1.51 Est; Raises FY2026 Sales Gu — benzinga Jul 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Acadia Healthcare Co Raises FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $1.35-$1.60 to $2.55-$2.85 vs $1.51 Est; Raises FY2026 Sales Gu — benzinga Jul 28, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-05T18:02:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerMedicaid58%10-K Item 1: 'we received 57.7% of our revenue from Medicaid, 24.6% from commercial payors, 14.3% from Medicare and 3.4% from other payors'
- MEDIUMGeographicPennsylvania, California and Tennessee10-K Item 1A: 'we have substantial operations in Pennsylvania, California and Tennessee, which makes us especially sensitive to regulatory, economic, environmental and competitive conditions'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Todd Young resigned effective April 30, 2026. David M. Duckworth appointed Interim CFO and principal financial officer effective May 1, 2026. Duckworth previously served as Acadia CFO from July 2012 to July 2023. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOWDirector Wade Miquelon announced retirement from the Board effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting; will not stand for reelection. Daniel Cancelmi appointed as new Class III director, joining the Audit Committee. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -33.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.13: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 35%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $26.16. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $29.05 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $26.16. Stop-loss: $26.16.
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (57.7%); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover ACHC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $33.
What does Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. do?Acadia Healthcare operates 277 behavioral healthcare facilities with over 12,500 beds across 40 states and Puerto Rico...
Acadia Healthcare operates 277 behavioral healthcare facilities with over 12,500 beds across 40 states and Puerto Rico through acute inpatient psychiatric, specialty treatment, comprehensive treatment center, and residential programs. Revenue totaled $3,312.8 million in 2025, with 57.7% from Medicaid, 24.6% from commercial payors, and 14.3% from Medicare.