Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
ACHC · Why this verdict
Why Acadia Healthcare Company (ACHC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Acadia beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including $0.38 versus $0.35 on 2026-07-28, and in 6 straight quarters in the extended record. Earnings | The November 4 report extends the beat streak to a fifth consecutive quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe largest percentage beats came off tiny estimates ($0.07 versus $0.01), and a stock already above its analyst target needs more than a modest beat. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 16.2x with a PEG of 0.14, which is attractive relative to expected earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth validates the low PEG, with forward P/E staying below 18x. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG this low reflects depressed current earnings, and revenue is flat to declining (-0%), so the expected growth may not arrive. | ||
Quality scores 2.9 out of 10 with free cash flow at -3% of revenue and no competitive moat, which undermines the earnings beats. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and quality improves above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy facility investment can depress free cash flow temporarily, and a Piotroski F-Score score of 6.7 shows underlying financial health is not poor. | ||
Medicaid accounts for 57.7% of customers, tying results to state reimbursement decisions. Bear case | Medicaid share falls below 55% or reimbursement rates hold steady through the next year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShort interest of 35% shows many investors expect reimbursement or regulatory pressure to hit earnings. | ||
The price of $29.96 is 1.9% above the $29.39 analyst target, with 8.8% downside to the stop and a negative reward-to-risk of -0.21. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $30 after the earnings report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA perfect beat streak with institutions accumulating can push targets higher, making the current target stale. | ||
Acadia beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including $0.38 versus $0.35 on 2026-07-28, and in 6 straight quarters in the extended record.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 4 report extends the beat streak to a fifth consecutive quarter.
CounterThe largest percentage beats came off tiny estimates ($0.07 versus $0.01), and a stock already above its analyst target needs more than a modest beat.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 16.2x with a PEG of 0.14, which is attractive relative to expected earnings growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth validates the low PEG, with forward P/E staying below 18x.
CounterA PEG this low reflects depressed current earnings, and revenue is flat to declining (-0%), so the expected growth may not arrive.
Quality scores 2.9 out of 10 with free cash flow at -3% of revenue and no competitive moat, which undermines the earnings beats.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and quality improves above 4.0.
CounterHeavy facility investment can depress free cash flow temporarily, and a Piotroski F-Score score of 6.7 shows underlying financial health is not poor.
Medicaid accounts for 57.7% of customers, tying results to state reimbursement decisions.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Medicaid share falls below 55% or reimbursement rates hold steady through the next year.
CounterShort interest of 35% shows many investors expect reimbursement or regulatory pressure to hit earnings.
The price of $29.96 is 1.9% above the $29.39 analyst target, with 8.8% downside to the stop and a negative reward-to-risk of -0.21.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $30 after the earnings report.
CounterA perfect beat streak with institutions accumulating can push targets higher, making the current target stale.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -3% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.7 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (15.3%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.8 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 35%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.05
Upside
-15.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Catalyst at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of -1.05.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 8.2, Momentum at 7.7, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.1, Peer rank at 2.7, and Quality at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 22x from the current 16.2x.
- P3Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below -6% of revenue from the current -3%.
- P4Medicaid Concentration Risk
Trip ifMedicaid share of customers exceeds 62% from the current 57.7%.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls to $27.86 or below, from the current $29.96.