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Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 40%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Acadia Healthcare operates 277 behavioral healthcare facilities with over 12,500 beds in 40 states and Puerto Rico, including acute inpatient psychiatric, specialty treatment, CTCs, and residential programs. Revenue of $3.3 billion in 2025 comes 57.7% from Medicaid, 24.6% from... Read more

$25.30+16.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#18 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-9.32%
Stop $23.54Target $29.60(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$28.25+11.7%14 analysts
$29.60our TP
$25.30price
$28.25mean
$13
$39

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 40%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 23, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: CFO Todd Young resigned effective April 30, 2026. David M. Duckworth appointed Interim CFO effective May 1, 2026; he previously served as CFO from July 2012 to July 2023. No permanent successor named.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (57.7%)
Target reached (-2.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn-32.8%
ROE-41.1%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.73
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$10-60.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMedicaid58%
    10-K Item 1: 'we received 57.7% of our revenue from Medicaid'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Todd Young resigned effective April 30, 2026. David M. Duckworth appointed Interim CFO effective May 1, 2026; he previously served as CFO from July 2012 to July 2023. No permanent successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Wade Miquelon will retire from Board at 2026 Annual Meeting; Daniel Cancelmi appointed to Board as Class III director and Audit Committee member effective March 12, 2026. Miquelon's retirement not due to any disagreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.8
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
5.2
Value Rank
6.7

Unprofitable operations — net margin -32.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
2.8
Operating Margin
4.0
Gross Margin
4.4
Moat
4.4
Current Ratio
6.1
Piotroski F
8.9
Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenueNo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.60Resistance $30.20

Price Targets

$24
$30
A.Upside+17.0%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 40%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $23.54. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.60 (+16.9% upside). Prior stop was $23.54. Stop-loss: $23.54.

What are the risks of investing in ACHC?

Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (57.7%); Target reached (-2.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is ACHC overvalued or undervalued?

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACHC?

20 analysts cover ACHC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. do?Acadia Healthcare operates 277 behavioral healthcare facilities with over 12,500 beds in 40 states and Puerto Rico,...

Acadia Healthcare operates 277 behavioral healthcare facilities with over 12,500 beds in 40 states and Puerto Rico, including acute inpatient psychiatric, specialty treatment, CTCs, and residential programs. Revenue of $3.3 billion in 2025 comes 57.7% from Medicaid, 24.6% from commercial payors, and 14.3% from Medicare.

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