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Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Specialty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.25: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. Today the firm owns or controls more than 10 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada.... Read more

$23.25+16.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#9 of 14 REIT - Specialty
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.28%
IncomeYield3.67%(5y avg 2.60%)Payout150.00%
Stop $22.08Target $27.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$31.18+34.1%11 analysts
$27.13our TP
$23.25price
$31.18mean
$38

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.25: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Weyerhaeuser Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:13:16Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.9
P/E (Fwd)32.8
Mkt Cap$16.5B
EV/EBITDA31.0
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth-2.0%
Beta0.91
Dividend3.67%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV40%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment to prior 8-K: Rick Beckwitt, appointed to Weyerhaeuser board November 14, 2025, was on February 13, 2026 added to the compensation committee. Routine committee assignment; no officer departure or change of control.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.5
Roe
1.4
Net Margin
2.9
Operating Margin
3.6
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
5.3
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -12% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
0.9
Value Rank
5.8
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.45Resistance $25.36

Price Targets

$22
$27
A.Upside+16.7%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.25: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $22.08. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.13 (+16.7% upside). Prior stop was $22.08. Stop-loss: $22.08.

What are the risks of investing in WY?

Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is WY overvalued or undervalued?

Weyerhaeuser Company trades at a P/E of 40.9 (forward 32.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WY?

22 analysts cover WY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Weyerhaeuser Company do?Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. Today the...

Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. Today the firm owns or controls more than 10 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada. Weyerhaeuser has been a global leader in sustainability for more than a century and manages 100 percent of its timberlands on a fully sustainable basis in compliance with internationally recognized sustainable forestry standards. Weyerhaeuser is also one of the largest manufacturers of wood products in North America and operates additional business lines around product distribution, climate solutions, real estate, energy and natural resources, among others. In 2025, the company generated $6.9 billion in net sales and employed approximately 9,500 people who serve customers worldwide. Operated as a real estate investment trust, Weyerhaeuser's common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol WY. Weyerhaeuser Company was incorporated in 1900 and is based in Seattle, United States.

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