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Fermi Inc. (FRMI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Specialty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.

Fermi Inc. is a development-stage AI infrastructure company developing Project Matador, a hyperscale private power campus on a 99-year ground lease from Texas Tech University System covering 5,236 acres in Carson County, Texas, targeting up to 11 GW of natural gas-fired... Read more

$5.95+29.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 14 REIT - Specialty
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
Stop $5.46Target $7.59(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$20.50+244.5%8 analysts
$7.59our TP
$5.95price
$20.50mean
$35

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Fermi Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 30, 2026 HIGH Item 5.02: Amendment: Toby Neugebauer terminated for Cause on April 30, 2026 per his Employment Agreement for conduct in violation of Company policies; automatically removed from Board of Directors. No replacement CEO named in this filing.
  • Apr 30, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Robert L. Masson appointed Interim CFO and principal financial officer effective April 29, 2026. Prior CFO roles at Noble Supply and Logistics, Latham Group, Hypertherm, and Flowserve. Permanent successor search underway.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: anchor tenants
DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $20.50 vs price $5.87 — ratio 3.5×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE
Rev Growth
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV128%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenantanchor tenants
    10-K Item 1: 'Prior to stabilization, we expect that a limited number of tenants may represent a significant portion of our contracted revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOW
    Larry Kellerman (Chief Power Officer) elected to Board as Class III director effective May 4, 2026, filling vacancy per Vicksburg Equity Holdings' nomination right under Director Nomination Agreement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02HIGH
    Amendment: Toby Neugebauer terminated for Cause on April 30, 2026 per his Employment Agreement for conduct in violation of Company policies; automatically removed from Board of Directors. No replacement CEO named in this filing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Robert L. Masson appointed Interim CFO and principal financial officer effective April 29, 2026. Prior CFO roles at Noble Supply and Logistics, Latham Group, Hypertherm, and Flowserve. Permanent successor search underway.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOW
    Jeffrey S. Stein and Miles Everson appointed to Board as Class II and Class III directors respectively, effective April 19, 2026. Board size increased to accommodate appointments.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02HIGH
    CEO Toby Neugebauer departed April 17, 2026. Interim Office of CEO created with COO Jacobo Ortiz and Board observer Anna Bofa sharing responsibilities. Miles Everson (CFO) nominated to Board. Permanent CEO search announced.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.8
Moat
4.8
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $4.72Resistance $7.74

Price Targets

$5
$8
A.Upside+27.6%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $20.50 vs price $5.87 — ratio 3.5×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.
! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRMI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $5.46. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.59 (+29.3% upside). Prior stop was $5.46. Stop-loss: $5.46.

What are the risks of investing in FRMI?

Concentration risk — Tenant: anchor tenants; DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $20.50 vs price $5.87 — ratio 3.5×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.; Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).

Is FRMI overvalued or undervalued?

Fermi Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FRMI?

16 analysts cover FRMI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Fermi Inc. do?Fermi Inc. is a development-stage AI infrastructure company developing Project Matador, a hyperscale private power...

Fermi Inc. is a development-stage AI infrastructure company developing Project Matador, a hyperscale private power campus on a 99-year ground lease from Texas Tech University System covering 5,236 acres in Carson County, Texas, targeting up to 11 GW of natural gas-fired generation capacity for AI hyperscale tenants. No revenue generated to date; first tenant energization targeted for first half of 2027.

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