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Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.75: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled... Read more

$43.75+8.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#4 of 10 Steel
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-6.73%
IncomeYield5.21%(5y avg 7.52%)Payout90.00%at-risk
Stop $40.71Target $47.30(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$44.38+1.5%13 analysts
$47.30our TP
$43.75price
$44.38mean
$33
$53

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.75: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-11.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.1
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA55.9
Profit Mgn3.7%
ROE3.2%
Rev Growth0.0%
Beta1.19
Dividend5.21%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV38%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.1
Roa
1.5
Net Margin
1.8
Operating Margin
2.9
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
8.9
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -98% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.84Resistance $48.27

Price Targets

$41
$47
A.Upside+8.1%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.75: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $40.71. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.30 (+8.1% upside). Prior stop was $40.71. Stop-loss: $40.71.

What are the risks of investing in TX?

Target reached (-11.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is TX overvalued or undervalued?

Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. trades at a P/E of 14.1 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TX?

20 analysts cover TX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. do?Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region,...

Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.

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