Ternium is a deeply discounted steel producer at a forward P/E of 8.8x with strong volume accumulation above its 200-day moving average, but an earnings quality red flag at negative 98% free cash flow, a commodity cycle peak signal, and a put/call ratio of 5.27 constrain the investment case.
Thesis pillars
- Commodity Cycle Peak Risk→Stable
- Extreme Put Call Ratio→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days
Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Steel
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.40: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.40: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 104d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS Ternium Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ternium Returns to Profitability in Third Quarter — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ternium Q3 EPS $1.42 Misses $1.86 Estimate, Sales $4.644B Beat $4.636B Estimate — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Ternium, Raises Price Target to $56 — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Transcript: Ternium Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call — benzinga Sep 17, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.40: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $47.80. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $53.51 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $47.80. Stop-loss: $47.80.
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).
Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts rate TX, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $62.
What does Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. do?Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region,...
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.