Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TX stock price target?

Take-profit $43.36 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $41.05.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TX?

Target reached (-12.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-6.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), High leverage (D/E 2.2); Target reached (-12.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Q: Is TX overvalued or undervalued?

Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about TX?

20 analysts cover TX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $43.

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Basic Materials · Steel

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.02: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 33.67; Below-average business quality.

$43.02+0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 10 Steel

Stop $41.05Target $43.36(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1

Analyst target$43.46+1.0%13 analysts

$43.36our TP

$43.02price

$43.46mean

$33

$53

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-12.1% upside)

Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-6.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), High leverage (D/E 2.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4

P/E (Fwd)9.0

Mkt Cap$8.4B

EV/EBITDA62.5

Profit Mgn2.7%

ROE1.9%

Rev Growth-2.6%

Beta1.19

Dividend5.14%

Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C33.67bearish

IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.815%1.17

Quality2.915%0.43

Growth6.015%0.90

Momentum4.510%0.45

Sentiment5.810%0.58

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.310%0.43

Technical Setup4.95%0.25

Risk Profile5.55%0.28

Catalyst4.75%0.24

Overall (Σ contributions)5.22

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Roe

0.6

Roa

1.3

Net Margin

1.4

Operating Margin

1.7

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

7.8

Current Ratio

8.5

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -158% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate

RSI

58 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.06Resistance $44.24

Price Targets

$41

$43

A.Upside+0.8%

A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.1% upside)

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-6.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), High leverage (D/E 2.2)

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.02: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 33.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $41.05. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.36 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $41.05. Stop-loss: $41.05.

What are the risks of investing in TX?

Target reached (-12.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-6.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), High leverage (D/E 2.2).

Is TX overvalued or undervalued?

Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TX?

20 analysts cover TX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. do?Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region,...

Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.