Skip to main content
TXTernium S.A. Ternium S.A.Sell5.6·$48.01+0.65%
Open full analysis

Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.01: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.27; Below-average business quality.

Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled... Read more

$48.01+5.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 10 Steel
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-5.96%
IncomeYield4.61%(5y avg 7.50%)Payout90.00%at-risk
Stop $44.65Target $50.70(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$51.88+8.1%13 analysts
$50.70our TP
$48.01price
$51.88mean
$40
$62

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.01: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.27; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=8.4x,ratio=0.53x. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A.

Generated 2026-06-09T22:16:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Target reached (-6.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$9.4B
EV/EBITDA62.9
Profit Mgn3.7%
ROE3.2%
Rev Growth0.0%
Beta1.20
Dividend4.61%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C5.27bearish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.1
Roa
1.5
Net Margin
1.8
Operating Margin
2.9
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
8.9
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -98% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=8.4x,ratio=0.53xMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.50Resistance $51.73

Price Targets

$45
$51
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.01: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.27; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $44.65. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.70 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $44.65. Stop-loss: $44.65.

What are the risks of investing in TX?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Target reached (-6.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is TX overvalued or undervalued?

Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TX?

20 analysts cover TX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. do?Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region,...

Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.

Related stocks: RS (Reliance, Inc.) · STLD (Steel Dynamics, Inc.) · NUE (Nucor Corporation) · GGB (Gerdau S.A.) · PKX (POSCO Holdings Inc.)
Home Stocks TX

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga33d agoAnalyst
Benzinga35d agoEarnings
Benzinga35d agoEarnings
Benzinga55d ago