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ROCKGibraltar Industries, Inc.Sell5.2·$47.88-2.15%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Gibraltar Industries is a building products company with 45% year-over-year revenue growth and 70% analyst upside to price targets, but a quality score well below the minimum acceptable threshold and two consecutive earnings misses indicate the rapid growth is not translating into durable business quality.

Thesis pillars

  • 45 Pct Revenue Growth Industry LeaderStable
  • Quality Below Floor Earnings MissesStable
  • 70 Pct Analyst Upside Valuation GapImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.88: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 627.17; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Gibraltar Industries manufactures building products and engineered solutions across three segments - Residential (roofing accessories, rainwater management, mail and package systems), Agtech (controlled-environment agriculture structures and canopies), and Infrastructure (bridge... Read more

$47.88+33.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#19 of 25 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield21.64%
Stop $44.53Target $63.96(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$75.25+57.2%4 analysts
$63.96our TP
$47.88price
$75.25mean
$86

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.88: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 627.17; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202674d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.7%), High leverage (D/E 2.8), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.7
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn-10.4%
ROE6.2%
Rev Growth64.6%
Beta1.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C627.17bearish
IV97%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerhome improvement retailer12%
    10-K Item 1: 'One customer, a home improvement retailer which purchases from the Residential segment, represented 12%, 16% and 17% of the Company's consolidated net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerten largest customers43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's ten largest customers accounted for approximately 43%, 42%, and 46% of the Company's net sales during 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.1
Roe
2.1
Roa
3.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Operating Margin
4.9
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.4
No competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
2.3
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.04Resistance $57.58

Price Targets

$45
$64
A.Upside+33.6%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.7%), High leverage (D/E 2.8), Negative free cash flow
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROCK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.88: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 627.17; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $44.53. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ROCK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.96 (+33.6% upside). Prior stop was $44.53. Stop-loss: $44.53.

What are the risks of investing in ROCK?

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.7%), High leverage (D/E 2.8), Negative free cash flow.

Is ROCK overvalued or undervalued?

Gibraltar Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.7 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ROCK?

9 analysts cover ROCK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $75.

What does Gibraltar Industries, Inc. do?Gibraltar Industries manufactures building products and engineered solutions across three segments - Residential...

Gibraltar Industries manufactures building products and engineered solutions across three segments - Residential (roofing accessories, rainwater management, mail and package systems), Agtech (controlled-environment agriculture structures and canopies), and Infrastructure (bridge and highway components) - serving the U.S. and Canada from 34 facilities as of December 31, 2025. The company sells primarily through home improvement retailers, wholesalers, distributors, and contractors, and closed its $1.335 billion acquisition of OmniMax International in February 2026, expanding its Residential seg

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