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Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%).

Warner Music Group is one of the world's major music entertainment companies with Recorded Music (81% of fiscal 2025 revenue at $5.4B) and Music Publishing segments, operating labels including Atlantic Records, Warner Records, Elektra, and Parlophone, plus Warner Chappell Music... Read more

$34.29-0.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.37%
IncomeYield2.20%(5y avg 2.05%)Payout89.29%at-risk
Stop $31.89Target $34.25(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$38.00+10.8%17 analysts
$34.25our TP
$34.29price
$38.00mean
$23
$46

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Warner Music Group Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.1
P/E (Fwd)17.6
Mkt Cap$18.0B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn6.3%
ROE51.0%
Rev Growth16.7%
Beta1.25
Dividend2.20%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductRecorded Music segment81%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Recorded Music business... generated $5.408 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, representing 81% of total revenues.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop 3 digital accounts (Spotify, Google/YouTube, Apple)43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue earned under our license agreements with our top three digital music accounts, Spotify, Google/YouTube and Apple, accounted for approximately 43% of our total revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
9.6
GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.05Resistance $34.95

Price Targets

$32
$34
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $31.89. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

What is the WMG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.25 (-0.1% upside). Prior stop was $31.89. Stop-loss: $31.89.

What are the risks of investing in WMG?

Concentration risk — Product: Recorded Music segment (81.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.0% away).

Is WMG overvalued or undervalued?

Warner Music Group Corp. trades at a P/E of 41.1 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WMG?

24 analysts cover WMG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Warner Music Group Corp. do?Warner Music Group is one of the world's major music entertainment companies with Recorded Music (81% of fiscal 2025...

Warner Music Group is one of the world's major music entertainment companies with Recorded Music (81% of fiscal 2025 revenue at $5.4B) and Music Publishing segments, operating labels including Atlantic Records, Warner Records, Elektra, and Parlophone, plus Warner Chappell Music with 2M+ compositions. Over 57% of revenues are from international operations. Revenue comes from streaming royalties, digital distribution, physical sales, and performance rights.

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