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WDWalker & Dunlop, IncSell6.2·$48.20+2.97%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Walker and Dunlop reported 32% revenue growth year-over-year and trades at a forward P/E of 8.8x with 13.8% upside to analyst targets, but has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters and carries an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 6.56 indicating strong options market caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth 32 PercentStable
  • Earnings Inconsistency Mixed DeliveryStable
  • Elevated Put Call Downside ConcernStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Walker & Dunlop, Inc (WD) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Mortgage Finance

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Walker & Dunlop is a commercial real estate services, finance, and technology company with three segments — Capital Markets, Servicing & Asset Management, and Corporate — focused on multifamily and affordable housing lending, brokerage, and investment management. It originates... Read more

$48.20+18.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#4 of 7 Mortgage Finance
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.81%(5y avg 2.87%)Payout133.17%at-risk
Stop $44.96Target $57.23(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$67.33+39.7%3 analysts
$57.23our TP
$48.20price
$67.33mean
$70

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — Walker & Dunlop, Inc

Generated 2026-07-27T11:13:01Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.2
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth32.0%
Beta1.47
Dividend5.81%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Quality Rank
4.2
Growth Rank
4.3
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $46.35Resistance $56.18

Price Targets

$45
$57
A.Upside+18.7%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $44.96. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $57.23 (+18.7% upside). Prior stop was $44.96. Stop-loss: $44.96.

What are the risks of investing in WD?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is WD overvalued or undervalued?

Walker & Dunlop, Inc trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WD?

12 analysts cover WD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $67.

What does Walker & Dunlop, Inc do?Walker & Dunlop is a commercial real estate services, finance, and technology company with three segments — Capital...

Walker & Dunlop is a commercial real estate services, finance, and technology company with three segments — Capital Markets, Servicing & Asset Management, and Corporate — focused on multifamily and affordable housing lending, brokerage, and investment management. It originates nearly all loans through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD/Ginnie Mae programs, retains servicing on most of them, and manages $2.7 billion of AUM through WDIP.

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